March Madness 2013 Bracket: Power Ranking Upset Potential of 5-12 Matchups

The 5-12 seed matchup is typically the first place people turn to in their March Madness brackets to predict a big first-round upset, and this year should be no different. 

I see at least one upset in this infamous matchup of seeds this year.

That certainly doesn't mean there will be only one; simply that when looking at the teams and numbers, it appears to me that the wrong team is the high seed in that matchup. 

Let's review and rank these matchups.

The one that has the least upset potential will be listed first and the one with the most upset potential will be listed last.

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No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 12 Ole Miss

This is one intriguing matchup.

Wisconsin is 206th in the nation in scoring at 66.2 points per game. Ole Miss is seventh in the nation in scoring at 78.2.

I fully expect Wisconsin to win the battle for pace.

The Badgers are a fundamentally sound and disciplined team. They will not be lured into an up-and-down battle. While Ole Miss certainly is not without talent, it doesn't have what it takes to come out and blow the Badgers off the court. 

Ole Miss had a fine season, finishing 26-9, but that came in the abysmal SEC.

Meanwhile, the Badgers have been gearing up for this tournament by battling in the insanely competitive Big Ten. 

I expect the Badgers to advance with ease. 

No. 5 VCU vs. No. 12 Akron

Isn't VCU supposed to be a No. 12 seed?

Not anymore.

The Rams' recent run of tournament success, and their fine 26-8 season, has them entering the tournament with this lofty seeding.

But don't expect them to become the victim of an upset.

Akron had a strong 26-6 season. However, they have a major issue when it comes to this matchup. The Zips will be playing without point guard Alex Abreu, who was suspended indefinitely earlier this year after being arrested on marijuana trafficking charges.

VCU, the nation's leader in steals, is not the team you want to face at less than full strength at the point guard position. 

The Zips are going to be overwhelmed by the Rams pressure defense. So it is safe to predict VCU to advance to the round of 32.

No. 5 UNLV vs. No. 12 California 

This game will be a rematch of a Dec. 9 contest where UNLV traveled to take on California and triumphed 76-75.

As that score tells us is that this matchup could go either way.

Muddying the prognostication waters even more in this matchup is the fact that both of these teams are streaky.

UNLV finished the season at 25-9; however, between Feb. 2 and Feb. 13, the Runnin' Rebels lost three of four.

And then they lost two of four heading into this tournament. 

That is better than Cal. The Golden Bears ride a two-game losing streak into this tournament. When it comes to picking this matchup, I'm flipping a coin—it is that close.

No. 5 Oklahoma State vs. No. 12 Oregon

After going 26-8 and winning the Pac-12 tournament title, the Oregon Ducks were rewarded with a No. 12 seed.

Perhaps the real reward will be the chip on their shoulder this slight caused.

What is even more baffling about this seeding is that the reality is Oregon is even better than its record suggests. The Ducks were forced to play without freshman point guard Dominic Artis for a stretch this season while he nursed a foot injury. They went just 5-4 during that stretch. 

With Artis back in the Ducks lineup, even though he hasn't returned to the same level where he was prior to the injury, the Ducks are a dangerous team. 

The same can be said of the Cowboys. This young team features one of the best players in the nation in freshman Marcus Smart.

However, all the youth has led to inconsistency and it does not point to great tournament success. 

Combine that with the fact that this game will be played in San Jose, Calif., which should give the Ducks a decided edge in fan support, and I like the Ducks to pull off this upset. 

 

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