Fantasy Baseball 2013: Mock-Draft Simulation When Holding No. 10 Pick

Here's a dry run of draft expectations when holding the No. 10 pick in a 12-team mixed roto league, specifically working off the Average Draft Position report from our friends at Mock Draft Central.

For the sake of brevity, we'll only go 18 rounds.

My only prerequisites: Get value at every turn and snag six offensive players within the first eight picks.


Round 1, Pick 10 overall—Best overall player

First option: 1B Prince Fielder, Tigers
Second option: OF Josh Hamilton, Angels
Third option: SP Justin Verlander, Tigers

Round 2, Pick 15 overall—Best overall player

First option: OF Josh Hamilton, Angels
Second option: SS Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
Third option: SP Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers

Round 3, Pick 34 overall—Best pitcher or middle infielder

First option: SP Felix Hernandez, Mariners
Second option: 2B Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
Third option: 2B Ian Kinsler, Rangers

Round 4, Pick 39 overall—Best infielder

First option: 2B Ian Kinsler, Rangers
Second option: SP Cole Hamels, Phillies
Third option: 3B/SS Hanley Ramirez, Dodgers

Round 5, Pick 58 overall—Best overall player

First option: OF Mark Trumbo, Angels
Second option: 3B Brett Lawrie, Blue Jays
Third option: 1B Freddie Freeman, Braves

Round 6, Pick 63 overall—Best corner infielder or starting pitcher

First option: SP CC Sabathia, Yankees
Second option: 3B Brett Lawrie, Blue Jays
Third option: 1B Freddie Freeman, Braves

Round 7, Pick 82 overall—Best outfielder or pitcher

First option: OF Austin Jackson, Tigers
Second option: OF Alex Rios, White Sox
Third option: SP Roy Halladay, Phillies

Round 8, Pick 87 overall—Best offensive player

First option: OF Alex Rios, White Sox
Second option: 1B Eric Hosmer, Royals
Third option: 3B Pablo Sandoval, Giants

Round 9, Pick 106 overall—Best closer or outfielder

First option: RP Jonathan Papelbon, Phillies
Second option: C Victor Martinez, Tigers
Third option: OF Josh Willingham, Twins

Round 10, Pick 111 overall—Best player available

First option: 3B/OF Martin Prado, Diamondbacks
Second option: OF Josh Willingham, Twins
Third option: SP Brandon Morrow, Blue Jays

Round 11, Pick 130 overall—Best shortstop or starting pitcher

First option: SS Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians
Second option: SP Jeff Samardzija, Cubs
Third option: SP Aroldis Chapman, Reds

Round 12, Pick 135 overall—Best starting pitcher

First option: SP Jeff Samardzija, Cubs
Second option: SP Josh Johnson, Blue Jays
Third option: SP Jon Lester, Red Sox

Round 13, Pick 154 overall—Best pitcher available

First option: SP Anibal Sanchez, Tigers
Second option: SP Doug Fister, Tigers
Third option: SP Mike Minor, Braves

Round 14, Pick 159 overall—Best corner infielder or starting pitcher

First option: 3B Mike Moustakas, Royals
Second option: 3B Will Middlebrooks, Red Sox
Third option: SP Mike Minor, Braves

Round 15, Pick 178 overall—Best corner infielder

First option: 1B/OF Michael Cuddyer, Rockies
Second option: OF Dexter Fowler, Rockies
Third option: 1B Adam Dunn, White Sox

Round 16, Pick 183 overall—Best closer available

First option: RP Kenley Jansen, Dodgers
Second option: RP Mariano Rivera, Yankees
Third option: RP Chris Perez, Indians

Round 17, Pick 202 overall—Best corner infielder or pitcher

First option: 1B Adam Dunn, White Sox
Second option: SP Matt Garza, Cubs
Third option: SP Matt Harrison, Rangers

Round 18, Pick 207 overall—Best middle infielder or outfielder

First option: SS Josh Rutledge, Rockies
Second option: SS Jean Segura, Brewers
Third option: OF Wil Myers, Rays


Quick Hitters

1. In retrospect, I was thrilled to land two top-six assets at second base (Ian Kinsler) and shortstop (Asdrubal Cabrera)—without investing a Round 1-3 pick on either crucial spot.

2. For the second straight simulation, I was happy to grab Alex Rios after the 85th pick. In 2012, Rios (25 homers, 91 RBI, 93 runs, 23 steals, .304 batting) posted top-20 fantasy numbers (overall hitters)...without the benefit of a career year with on-base percentage (.334).

3. In The Sporting News' Ballpark Power Index, Angel Stadium ranked as the No. 20 ballpark for hitters last season, with Rangers Ballpark pulling down a No. 3 rating. So obviously, Josh Hamilton will be exhibiting his talents at a larger stadium this year (Anaheim). That aside, there's little rationale for Hamilton (43 HR, 128 RBI, .285 BA last year) plunging to the mid-20s for mock drafts. Especially since he won't have to face Angels pitching 20 times.

4. I'm a little perplexed by CC Sabathia's availability at No. 63. He has averaged 18 wins, 208 strikeouts and a sub-3.25 ERA in the last three years—and that came before the Yankees southpaw reportedly trimmed significant weight off his large frame over the winter. (Sabathia had a bone spur removed from his left elbow a few months ago.)

5. Hamilton (fifth round), Rios (15th), Austin Jackson (16th) and Mark Trumbo (20th) all hold top-20 slots in my outfielder rankings. If this were a real draft, the remaining OF spots would be filled by Martin Prado (10 HR, 70 RBI, 17 steals, .301 BA), Michael Cuddyer (annual threat for 20 homers, 70 RBI, 10 steals) and high-upside prospects like Wil Myers, Oscar Taveras and Adam Eaton.

6. It wasn't covered here, but there are plenty of quality starting pitchers for Rounds 19 through 25—Matt Harrison, Derek Holland, Michael Fiers, Marco Estrada, A.J. Griffin, Brandon McCarthy, Tommy Hanson, Chris Carpenter, Shawn Marcum, Ricky Romero, Cory Luebke, Clayton Richard, Andrew Cashner, Jason Hammel and likely phenoms Brandon Beachy (coming off elbow surgery—grab him off waivers in June), Dylan Bundy and Trevor Bauer. 

7. Buster Posey currently owns a No. 10 ADP. But in leagues that require only one starting catcher, it makes little sense to invest a Round 1 pick on the reigning NL MVP—unless you're starting him at first base for the majority of the season.


Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.