Sports Marketwatch: NBA Edition (Mar. 28)

Dan FabrizioMar 28, 2008

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Sports Marketwatch
NBA Edition
3/28/2008 4:15 PM EST
By The Team at SportsInsights.com

Welcome to this week's edition of the Sports Marketwatch – NBA Edition, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NBA point-spread marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch! The NBA Edition of the Sports Marketwatch will be published weekly, on Friday’s, by 5PM, Eastern Time.

The staff at SportsInsights.com speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. We’ll take a look at what’s in store for today’s NBA games.

Sports Marketplace – NBA Edition
The NBA MarketWatch went 1-2 last Friday, with the Memphis “smart money/steam move” play being the only winner. After several good weeks, a few bad weeks have dropped the MarketWatch record to a sub-par 13-16. Ups and downs happen in any investment, but searching for “value” in sports investing should keep us positive in the long-run. Let’s hope to get the NBA MarketWatch back on track.
2007-08 NBA Games to Watch: 13-16-1 = 44.8%

*Source: SportsInsights.com
Sports Marketwatch 3/28/08 – Games to Watch

Philadelphia 76ers + 3 over Phoenix Suns
Even thought the 76ers have been playing better ball, they still don’t get much respect from the general public. As a result, they appear under-valued. In this match-up, the 76ers are receiving only about 20% of all bets. This has moved the line in the direction of the Suns – from Philly +1.5 to Philly +2.5. Sportsbook and SIA have +3’s available at the time of this writing.

We like getting a “live home dog” in a rejuvenated Philadelphia team. We’ll “bet against the public” and take the home dog with an extra 1.5 points of line movement value.

Philadelphia 76ers +3

Minnesota Timberwolves +12.5 over San Antonio Spurs

At the beginning of the season, Minnesota played the worst basketball in the league. They remain a mediocre team but are no longer the league doormat. San Antonio remains one of the league’s elite teams. As a result, the Spurs are grabbing two-thirds of the bets. These kinds of biases (long-standing “masters of the universes” and “league doormats”) create opportunities for contrarian investors.

SportsInsights.com’s exclusive sports marketplace statistics show the existence of “smart money” getting down on Minny. The line opened at San Antonio -12.5 but has moved down to -11.5 at some books – even with a decent majority of bets on the Spurs. Some of the sports exchanges still have Minny +12.5 at reasonable “vig.”

Minnesota Timberwolves +12.5

Milwaukee Bucks +7 over Orlando Magic

Here again, the line has moved due to an overwhelming percentage of bets coming in on the favorite. The line opened at Orlando -6 and moved fairly quickly to Orlando -7. Orlando is capturing a huge 86% of the bets at the time of writing this article.

Although Orlando is a first-place team and Milwaukee a last-place team, this match-up finds the Bucks at home, where they have been competitive. Milwaukee is playing .500 ball at home – so the seven points looks like there could be some value. We’ll “bet against the public” and take the Bucks as a “live home dog.”

Milwaukee Bucks +7

Games to Watch: 13-16-1 = 44.8%
Philadelphia 76ers +3
Minnesota Timberwolves +12.5
Milwaukee Bucks +7

It should be another exciting weekend in the sports marketplace. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – NBA Edition.

Enjoy the games!

The Team at SportsInsights.com
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