NFL Conference Championship Picks: Spread, Straight and Over/Under

After a snoozer of a wild-card week we were finally treated with a set of playoff football that lived up to all the expectations in last week’s Divisional Round.  With two games coming down to the last minute, and the other two showcasing some jaw-dropping offense, we head into this week’s conference championships anxious for more.

The week went a lot differently than I predicted, and out of all four games I only picked the NE win correctly (although I did accurately predict both Seattle and Baltimore to cover).  With only three games left in the season it would be sweet to finish out 100 percent, and after picking the Patriots to win it all way back in August I still have a horse in the race.

Even with the down week I remain in the race for a third straight league championship in my 30-man pick ‘em league, so I need to pull it together starting now if I want to pull out the three-peat.

Here’s how I see this week’s championships panning out.

San Francisco 49ers (-4.5) at Atlanta Falcons (O/U = 49)

With nothing but questions facing second-year QB Colin Kaepernick going into last week’s game against Green Bay the young gunslinger answered in resounding fashion.  Not only did Kaepernick win the game to move deeper into the playoffs, but in doing so set the all-time record for rushing by a quarterback in a single game.  Any time you’re talking about an all-time record in the NFL it’s special, but in his first ever playoff game as a starter?  It was simply an unprecedented performance.

In victory, however, the Niners gave up 31 points, which was the second most they have allowed all year.  Heading into Atlanta to face a Falcons team that always plays well at home Head Coach Jim Harbaugh will surely be hoping that his stellar defensive unit returns to form for this one.

The Falcons finally pulled out their first playoff victory with Matt Ryan under center, and it was a long time coming.  After getting over that hump this team is likely to feel like they can accomplish anything, and will without a doubt be playing at the top of their game.

They pulled out a miraculous last-second victory after a late rally by the Seahawks looked to have sealed the deal, and it was clearly a major building block for this team.  Rather than disappointing in the big moment yet again the Falcons offense rose to the occasion with a sequence of plays that led to the game-winning field goal.

Both of these teams are hot right now and riding a wave of momentum into this contest.  I expect the San Francisco defense to play better than last week, and provide even more support for their young quarterback.  It will take another solid performance from Kaepernick to do it, but I think the 49ers stroll into Atlanta and win on the road to make it to the Super Bowl.

Straight: San Francisco

Spread: San Francisco

O/U: Under

Baltimore Ravens (+8) at New England Patriots (O/U = 51.5)

As the underdogs in last week’s matchup against the number one seeded Broncos the Ravens made some magic happen and stole a win in overtime.  A 70-yard TD bomb with under a minute to go took the game into overtime, where a field goal by rookie kicker Justin Tucker advanced them to this point.  Very quickly Peyton Manning’s storybook beginning in Denver turned into Ray Lewis storybook ending as a Raven.

After fumbling twice in the postseason opener, Ray Rice held onto the ball, rushing for 130 yards and a touchdown while Joe Flacco again avoided interceptions while throwing three touchdowns.  Against one of the best defenses in the league all season long the Ravens put up almost 500 yards to go with 38 points, and appear to be hitting their stride at just the right time.

The Patriots continued to roll, beating the Texans handily at home to move a game closer to what could be a sixth Super Bowl appearance for Tom Brady.  The future Hall of Famer threw for three touchdowns himself to match Flacco’s numbers, and appears focused as ever on another world championship. 

In his first game back from an arm injury tight end Rob Gronkowski re-broke the same arm, and will have to miss the remainder of the playoffs as a result.  Even without the talented big man the Pats offense has absolutely rolled, and it doesn’t appear that they will miss a beat without him.

I’ll have to admit that after last week’s win I started to become a believer in Ray Lewis’ “Last Ride” but I think the ride ends here against a New England team that has consistently dominated offensively all season long.  Maybe not by eight, though.

Straight: New England

Spread: Baltimore

O/U: Over