49ers vs. Falcons Predictions: Defensive Keys to NFC Championship Victory

The NFL divisional round featured excitement, intrigue and dozens of great storylines, but it didn’t feature much defense.

Eight teams combined for 276 points last weekend, and despite Denver, Seattle and Houston fielding top-seven defenses, all three lost at the hands of some of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. With two talented quarterbacks at the helm in the NFC Championship Game, quality defensive play will determine which team punches a ticket to New Orleans on February 3.

San Francisco fielded the No. 3 defense in the NFL this year. That defense held Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers’ high-flying offense 31 points last week. While the 49ers dominated offensively, they will have to play tighter defense against a hungry Atlanta Falcons squad with one of the best passing offenses in the league.

Atlanta’s passing offense was the biggest reason for its success this year, and its deficiencies on the defensive side of the ball were apparent in the Falcons’ last-second victory last weekend. Atlanta finished the regular season ranked No. 24 in the league in defense. Given San Francisco’s ever-evolving offense with Colin Kaepernick at the helm, Atlanta has to make some adjustments.

Defensive keys for Atlanta

Stopping Kaepernick is the primary goal for the Falcons this week, but it will be easier said than done.

Kaepernick passed for 263 yards and rushed for 181 more against the Packers last week. His dual-threat style is a nightmare for most teams, but with another week of game tape to plan, Atlanta has an advantage over most teams that have already faced Kaepernick.

The Falcons need to play conservatively around the pocket in order to limit Kaepernick’s effectiveness. Bringing too much A-gap pressure will open up the middle of the field for Kaepernick to scramble or exploit the defense in the short passing game.

While Kaepernick is a talented passer, he’s still very inexperienced in reading NFL coverage. For the Falcons to limit his effectiveness, they will have to limit the amount of pressure they send up the middle and instead drop extra defenders in coverage, taking away Kaepernick’s primary reads and forcing him to throw into tight windows.

The Falcons recorded 20 interceptions this season, and forcing Kaepernick to sit in the pocket and thread the ball into small windows could yield several more this weekend.

Defensive keys for San Francisco

Michael Turner’s decline has been well-documented, but he’s still a bruiser who can do a lot of damage if he can get through the first level. For the 49ers to stop Atlanta’s offense, they will have to first take away the run.

The Falcons have attempted to maintain offensive balance by running the football this season, even when they haven’t picked up many yards doing so. San Francisco’s defense will need to key in on the run early in order to force the Falcons into long-yardage situations.

With the 49ers able to key in the on the pass, they can turn Aldon Smith loose off the edge more regularly and also be able to utilize more stunts with he and Justin Smith on the interior. Atlanta can’t contain San Francisco’s pass rush without a productive running game.

San Francisco will also have its hands full with Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez in the passing game. Covering all three will be nearly impossible, but being able to key in on the pass and drop extra defenders into coverage should allow San Francisco’s secondary more breathing room. Ryan isn’t much of a threat to scramble, and extra defenders in coverage will also result in more coverage sacks for the 49ers pass rush.