2009 MLB Predictions: NL East

If people hated me for not picking the Yankees to be in the playoffs, this division will cause an uproar with my picks.  So here it is, the NL East for 2009 according to me...

The Division Winner

The New York Mets

Twenty-nine blown saves last year.  Third most in the majors behind Seattle and St. Louis.

That number is going to come down huge and there will be no second half collapse this time around.  The Mets have a solid lineup with speed in Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, and a 30/30 candidate in David Wright. 

Power? They have that too. Wright, Beltran and Carlos Delgado. Daniel Murphy is also a power prospect ready to pop.

Defensively sound.  Wright had a mediocre fielding percentage last year, but look again. He led the majors in total chances and assists. Second in putouts. He makes a lot of plays other guys wouldn't make.

Beltran is a home-run robber roaming in center.  Luis Castillo had a total of five errors in 2006 and 2007 before last year's total rose to six.

His health is still an issue, but he's probably the sixth- or seventh-best offensive player on this team, so it's not the worst thing in the world if he misses any considerable time. And Alex Cora is a back-up that can manage the job just fine.

Their bullpen. K-Rod. JJ Putz.  Two closers in the eighth and ninth.  Their middle relief is shaky but they have a left-handed specialist in Pedro Feliciano, which is always helpful. 

The middle relief is one of the worst aspects of this team though. If games are tight in the 6th and 7th and their starters have to come out, they could lose a lot of ballgames because of it. 

However, starting pitching is their biggest weakness. A true ace in Johan Santana, but nothing solid afterwards. 

Everyone in their 2-5 either hasn't put a full season together or is past their prime or both.

Mike Pelfrey had a great second half last year, but this year he has been having problems due to a lack of conditioning. He pitched 200 innings last year with a 3.72 ERA. He needs to be even better in 2009. If not, the Mets could miss the playoffs.

But I think he'll get the ship righted soon enough. After him there's Oliver Perez, John Maine, and Livan Hernandez.  

Perez has had a rough spring with coaches saying he's not in shape. Not a good indication.

Maine has the talent, but has not yet shown the consistency.

Hernandez can eat up innings, but he's not going to have a sparkling ERA doing it.

Freddy Garcia is another arm they have, but again, he is questionable at best.

They'll need those 2-5 pitchers to have great seasons to take this division or make the wild card, because as nice as the back end of the bullpen is, if the starters struggle, there's nothing great in middle-relief to help them out.

However I feel Pelfrey and Maine will have good years, and the reason for the Hernandez signing is so they can have someone they trust to get the game to Putz and K-Rod without dealing with the messy middle-relief.

Coming in Second...

The Florida Marlins

That's right. Not the reigning World Series Champs. It's going to be the fish in '09. 

Why?  Because they have an offense that matches up with those other two East coast teams and a solid bullpen if it's healthy. The main reason though, their starting rotation is head and shoulders above the competition. 

This team has shades of '03.

Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson, and Chris Volstad all had terrific springs (Between the three of them 12 walks to 47 strikeouts in 61 innings. That's control right there). If they continue that into the season, there's three 15 game winners with the potential for more. 

Add a healthy Anibal Sanchez to the mix, and they're stacked to the gills with talent.

Of course they're young, and there's injury history with Johnson and Sanchez, but Nolasco finished last year extremely strong and with the offense he has behind him, he definitely could get to 20 wins. 

The biggest weakness of this team is defense. 

Their pitchers are going to have to be able to bounce back when Hanley Ramirez or Dan Uggla boot a tailor-made double play ball. 

Ramirez was last in errors and fielding percentage at his position, though he said he spent all off-season improving on that area of his game.  Uggla wasn't last in errors or fielding percentage among 2nd basemen, but he wasn't in the top 15 either.

Emilio Bonifacio, their rookie third baseman, is a natural second baseman who they're sticking at third so he can be plugged in the lineup for his speed.

His defense is a paradox. Last year he turned 25 double plays at 2nd in 37 games, but also had 7 errors in those same 37 games.

Jorge Cantu has played a grand total of 87 games at 1st base, 66 of them last year, so he's familiar, but not a gold glover.

In other words, this infield has trouble written all over it. Cantu won't be receiving solid tosses on a regular basis at first, so how he reacts will really be the difference for this team in '09. 

Offensively though, they look great. Hanley has the chance to win the NL MVP this year. And their speed at the top of the lineup can't be matched by anyone in the bigs.

Their projected 1, 2, 3 hitters: Cameron Maybin, Emilio Bonifacio, and Hanley Ramirez.

Most scouts are saying Cameron Maybin is the next Grady Sizemore with 30/30 potential.  He hit .500 in his September call-up and is still having a strong spring hitting .333 with a .414 on-base percentage.  

He's certainly my projection for NL R.O.Y.

Now to Bonifacio. In the minors from 2003-2007, Bonifacio had 40, 55, 61, and 41 stolen bases.  He can run if he gets on-base, and based on his last three seasons in the minors and majors, plus the fact he's hitting in front of Hanley, he should get some good pitches and make his way on to make an impact.

And Hanley Ramirez in the No. 3 spot...'nough said.

The Marlins lived a little too much by the long ball in '08, and the loss of Mike Jacobs hurts, but they have enough strengths in other areas (namely pitching) for those cold-hitting nights to make up for it.

They also have depth, with Dallas McPherson being able to come in if Bonaficio struggles, or moving Cantu back to third and giving Gaby Sanchez a shot at first. 

Catcher is a position they're going to have to hope holds out. John Baker has the talent, but never has gone a full season, and now they're putting 120-130 games on him.

The biggest problem they face heading into 2009 is health.

Right now they're missing their closer and set-up man (Matt Lindstrom and Scott Proctor) because of injuries. Injuries that could recur as well. 

Leo Nunez, the relief pitcher they received for Jacobs, did great last year for the Royals. But he'd be better served as a 7th inning option rather than closing.

Lindstrom is due back by Opening Day. Proctor by Mid-April at the latest. If those two have no set-backs, this team is dynamite.

Coming in Third...

The Philadelphia Phillies

Here come the death threats.  But look, this team has needed two second half collapses by the Mets just to get into the playoffs the last two seasons.  And they made no significant changes to their roster other than Raul Ibanez.

But Ibanez is not what they need. Their offense is already amazing. Victorino, Howard, Utley, Rollins, Werth.  What they needed to get this off-season was starting pitching.

Cole Hamels had elbow trouble in spring training but is apparently over it.  Let's say it happens again and Hamels has to miss 3 or 4 starts.  The rotation would then be...

Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer, Joe Blanton, J.A. Happ and your choice of Kyle Kendrick,  Chan Ho Park, or Carlos Carrasco (Hasn't pitched in the big leagues yet)...for a month. 

I don't care how good your offense is, that's ugly.

Yes Brett Myers finished last year strong, but I don't think he's going to have repeat success this year.

Now their bullpen. It's the best in the division overall in terms of depth and roles set up perfectly. But here's the thing.

Brad Lidge went 48-for-48 in save opportunities, 7 of those in the postseason last year. Not one blown save.  That's not going to happen again this year.

And we all know that mental fortitude isn't exactly a strong suit of this guy (See Game 5 NLCS 2005 followed by 2006 and 2007 seasons.) 

What's going to happen when he blows a couple of saves? How forgiving will those Philly fans be?

If he struggles it will destroy all those perfectly defined roles in that bullpen.

If he doesn't, Ryan Madson and JC Romero make up a terrifically talented middle relief corps. But I think the Phillies will falter in '09 due to the growth of the Fish, the bullpen of the Mets, and their own lack of starting pitching depth. 

In Fourth Place...

The Atlanta Braves

They're making their way back to being contenders with top prospects Tommy Hanson and Jordan Schafer on the way, but this won't be the season. 

Their bullpen is absolutely atrocious.

Closing out ballgames they have Mike Gonzalez, a guy who I would maybe trust in the 7th or 8th inning.

Rafael Soriano and Manny Acosta, two other guys who have tried their hands at closing for the Braves that either haven't had success or couldn't stay healthy.

It only gets worse the lower you go with soft-tossing lefty Boone Logan in middle relief.

Starting pitching is fine, and they all have had marvelous springs. But when the regular season starts, I don't think they'll be anything that will blow you away. 

Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez, and Tom Glavine are all past their primes. Kenshin Kawakami could be a nice addition, and Jair Jurrjens is without a doubt going to have a breakout year. 

But no matter how good the starting pitching is, which it's ok, the bullpen and offense leave too much to be desired. 

Last year, Brian McCann led the team with 23 homers and 87 RBI.  Only three guys had over 20 homers and over 70 RBI, and one of them left halfway through the season (Mark Teixeira.) 

Jeff Francouer was someone I thought was primed to have a big year in '08, but it's seeming more and more like he just can't hit. 

Overall the offense is too weak as is the bullpen. The starting rotation and young prospects such as Tommy Hanson (Considered by many to be the next Jake Peavy) and Jordan Schafer will be what can make this team competitive, but don't expect much.

In Last Place...

The Washington Nationals

Was there really any doubt? No starting pitching whatsoever.

How can you get excited for a season when your ace on opening day was 9-15 and gave up 23 gopher balls last year? 

What's more depressing is that looking over this roster it's a really a "Wow, what happened to that guy" team.

Guys like Scott Olson, Daniel Cabrera in the rotation, with the offense sporting Josh Willingham, Elijah Dukes, Lastings Milledge, Ryan Zimmerman, Willy Mo Pena. 

Now obviously most of these guys are still young at 24 to 27 and have the chance to turn it around (with the exception of Willingham who's 30.) 

But talk about prospects with such hype that just haven't even touched what was expected of them the past couple years.

Ryan Zimmerman's probably the closest to figuring it out, and Dukes and Milledge both showed flashes of the players they can be as well in '08.

Cristian Guzman was a bright spot last year and should be again this year. 

Regardless, their starting pitching is so weak there's nothing any offense could do to help. 

Overall their bullpen isn't atrocious.  Joel Hannrahan is not a solid, shut-down closer, but he's good enough. And Joe Beimel had a good season last year with an ERA at 2.02 in 72 games. 

It's still all moot as this team may lose another 100 this year. 

That's all for the NL East.

Sorry Phillies fans, I just don't think it's your year. And with no repeat champions in baseball since 2000, and World Series champs missing the playoffs half of those times the following year, I think it's a pretty safe bet. 

NL Central next...