Formula One Sends Mystery Parcel to Oz

Every F1 fan in the world is now waiting impatiently for the first race of the 2009 season, which takes place in Melbourne, Australia on Sunday, 29 March.

Usually at the start of an F1 season we open the package knowing more-or-less what to expect. We have a very shrewd idea who will be the front-runners, who will be occasional challengers for glory, and which lacklustre teams will bring up the rear of the field.

The 2009 F1 season is different, for F1 has produced a parcel of puzzles akin to Forest Gump's box of chocolates; we just don't know what we're gonna get.

Changes to the technical spec of F1 cars have apparently upset the established order to an unprecedented extent. Most of the changes are in the noble cause of making F1 better for spectators by improving overtaking opportunities.

Notable changes include:

• Reduced aerodynamic downforce. Aerodynamics is a subject of mind-boggling complexity, but the desired effect of the change is simple enough; to reduce air turbulence behind a car and thus make it easier for a following car to overtake.
  
• Grippier Tyres. These will partially compensate for the lost downforce, at least in dry conditions, and will give drivers a better feel of the track
  
• KERS. The Kinetic Energy Recovery System. Introduced as a gesture to environmental concerns, KERS stores braking energy and makes it available as an overtaking power boost. Not all teams will use KERS, it is not mandatory in 2009.

Pre-season testing has shown that some teams have engineered the changes much better than others. Very much better.

McLaren-Mercedes, the team that produced 2008 champion driver Lewis Hamilton, are looking slow. Because they're looking too slow to challenge for honours in 2009, some people have suggested they've been sandbagging, concealing their real pace from the competition. If so, they will have pulled off the greatest hoax since the Hitler diaries.

At the fast end of the spectrum, Brawn GP have produced test times so impressive they are being tipped to win in Melbourne, and to mount a serious challenge for the F1 driver and constructor championships if they can sustain their advantage.

That would be astonishing.

Brawn GP were Honda Racing F1 until December 2008, when the Japanese auto giant withdrew from motor-sport. For season after season they made a mockery of their big budget by producing lamentable results.

If, resurrected under the leadership of Ross Brawn, they now step forward to greatness, the world will have seen a sporting turn-around beyond compare.

And Ferrari, the great Ferrari, F1's oldest team? Ferrari always have to be reckoned with. The Italian team will not go unchallenged. Last year's second-rank teams Toyota, BMW, and Renault are certain to fight for wins; for some of them have to show results or their owners will quit F1.

Yet nobody on the outside can be sure of who has good race pace, and who has been showboating with their test times.

To add further confusion to the Melbourne mix, some of the teams are objecting to a detail of the Brawn car's design, a rear airflow feature they share with the Williams and Toyota teams.

As comradely as a crate of scorpions, F1 teams are ever-vigilant for an opportunity to damage their fellows by snitching alleged technical infringements to the authorities.

So even if Brawn GP do live up to their pre-season form and score a win in Melbourne, it could be taken away from them at a later date, and a driver who did not win will be declared the winner.

In summary, nobody knows who will truly be quick in Melbourne this weekend, and who will be exposed as so lacking in pace they will limp around pitifully at the back of the pack. And whoever wins the race may turn out not to be the winner at all.

Confused? You will be, after the first round of the 2009 Formula One Championship.

How could you possibly miss it?