2012 College Football Week 12 Picks: Kansas State over Baylor

A teenager just threw the college football season into a tizzy.

Led by freshman quarterback Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M's upset win over Alabama knocked the Crimson Tide from the ranks of the unbeaten, out of the national championship picture (for now) and opened the door for the most unlikely of contenders if you were to rewind the tape back to August.

Two more wins and Kansas State is in the BCS National Championship. As college football pundits like to say this time of year, "If the season ended today, the Wildcats would face the Oregon Ducks in the title game." Bill Snyder's crew must knock off Baylor this week before enjoying a timely late-season bye the week of Thanksgiving.

When you dissect K-State's stats, their average margin of victory jumps out and smacks you in the face. The Wildcats average 42.2 points per game, while holding opponents to 17.7—ranked 14th in the BCS. Quarterback Colin Klein continues to impose his “death by a thousand cuts” against opposing defenses. He's only rushed for more than 90 yards twice this season, but has scored at least one rushing touchdown in nine out of the team's 10 games this season (did not score Week 1). Klein threw only his third interception of the season last Saturday compared to 12 passing touchdowns.

In order for Baylor to pull the upset, the Bears are going to need to contain Klein and cut down on the turnovers that have plagued them this season. Baylor has lost six fumbles and thrown 10 interceptions this year. When you factor in that Kansas State is first in the country in turnover margin (+2.10), Baylor can't afford to make mistakes.

The Bears remain one of the highest-scoring teams in the country at 42.7 points per game. This allowed the team to hang around with Oklahoma for four quarters last week before falling 42-34 to the Sooners.

We simulated the Bears and the Wildcats 101 times and it's K-State winning more than 80 percent of the time by an average score of 30-19.

College Football Week 12
Matchup	Win%	Avg Score
North Carolina State Wolfpack	31.7	21	Boxscore
@ Clemson Tigers	68.3	27
South Florida Bulls	39.6	23	Boxscore
@ Miami (FL) Hurricanes	60.4	26
Duke Blue Devils	45.5	29	Boxscore
@ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	54.5	30
North Carolina Tar Heels	56.4	25	Boxscore
@ Virginia Cavaliers	43.6	24
Virginia Tech Hokies	72.8	26	Boxscore
@ Boston College Eagles	27.2	20
Florida State Seminoles	76.2	28	Boxscore
@ Maryland Terrapins	23.8	18
Rutgers Scarlet Knights	48.5	22	Boxscore
@ Cincinnati Bearcats	51.5	24
Minnesota Golden Gophers	29.7	20	Boxscore
@ Nebraska Cornhuskers	70.3	26
Iowa Hawkeyes	41.6	19	Boxscore
@ Michigan Wolverines	58.4	23
Indiana Hoosiers	45.5	24	Boxscore
@ Penn State Nittany Lions	54.5	26
Northwestern Wildcats	49.5	22	Boxscore
@ Michigan State Spartans	50.5	24
Purdue Boilermakers	59.4	22	Boxscore
@ Illinois Fighting Illini	40.6	18
Ohio State Buckeyes	71.3	24	Boxscore
@ Wisconsin Badgers	28.7	18
Eastern Michigan Eagles	24.8	20	Boxscore
@ Western Michigan Broncos	75.2	28
Toledo Rockets	43.6	25	Boxscore
@ Northern Illinois Huskies	56.4	26
Kent State Golden Flashes	45.5	22	Boxscore
@ Bowling Green Falcons	54.5	23
Miami (OH) RedHawks	46.5	25	Boxscore
@ Central Michigan Chippewas	53.5	26
Ohio Bobcats	48.0	27	Boxscore
@ Ball State Cardinals	52.0	28
Buffalo Bulls	64.4	24	Boxscore
@ Massachusetts Minutemen	35.6	19
Stanford Cardinal	20.8	19	Boxscore
@ Oregon Ducks	79.2	27
California Golden Bears	30.7	21	Boxscore
@ Oregon State Beavers	69.3	26
Washington State Cougars	37.6	24	Boxscore
@ Arizona State Sun Devils	62.4	27
Arizona Wildcats	48.5	25	Boxscore
@ Utah Utes	51.5	26
USC Trojans	53.5	27	Boxscore
@ UCLA Bruins	46.5	26
Washington Huskies	69.8	26	Boxscore
@ Colorado Buffaloes	30.2	19
Sam Houston State Bearkats	5.0	7	Boxscore
@ Texas A&M Aggies	95.0	52
Wofford Terriers	5.0	6	Boxscore
@ South Carolina Gamecocks	95.0	47
Jacksonville State Gamecocks	5.0	6	Boxscore
@ Florida Gators	95.0	45
Georgia Southern Eagles	5.0	7	Boxscore
@ Georgia Bulldogs	95.0	51
Samford Bulldogs	5.0	8	Boxscore
@ Kentucky Wildcats	95.0	39
Western Carolina Catamounts	5.0	7	Boxscore
@ Alabama Crimson Tide	95.0	55
Alabama A&M Bulldogs	5.0	8	Boxscore
@ Auburn Tigers	95.0	40
Mississippi Rebels	25.7	16	Boxscore
@ LSU Tigers	74.3	25
Arkansas Razorbacks	37.1	22	Boxscore
@ Mississippi State Bulldogs	62.9	25
Tennessee Volunteers	40.1	20	Boxscore
@ Vanderbilt Commodores	59.9	23
Syracuse Orange	49.5	22	Boxscore
@ Missouri Tigers	50.5	23
Utah State Aggies	37.6	27	Boxscore
@ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs	62.4	30
Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners	50.0	27	Boxscore
@ Idaho Vandals	50.0	26
Brigham Young Cougars	70.3	29	Boxscore
@ San Jose State Spartans	29.7	22
Wake Forest Demon Deacons	22.8	18	Boxscore
@ Notre Dame Fighting Irish	77.2	29
Texas State Bobcats	24.8	20	Boxscore
@ Navy Midshipmen	75.2	29
Temple Owls	68.3	25	Boxscore
@ Army Black Knights	31.7	19
Texas Tech Red Raiders	48.5	27	Boxscore
@ Oklahoma State Cowboys	51.5	28
Oklahoma Sooners	54.5	30	Boxscore
@ West Virginia Mountaineers	45.5	28
Iowa State Cyclones	57.4	27	Boxscore
@ Kansas Jayhawks	42.6	23
Kansas State Wildcats	80.2	30	Boxscore
@ Baylor Bears	19.8	19
Houston Cougars	45.0	27	Boxscore
@ Marshall Thundering Herd	55.0	28
Memphis Tigers	48.5	24	Boxscore
@ UAB Blazers	51.5	26
UCF Knights	49.5	26	Boxscore
@ Tulsa Golden Hurricane	50.5	27
Southern Methodist Mustangs	55.4	26	Boxscore
@ Rice Owls	44.6	23
UTEP Miners	56.4	25	Boxscore
@ Southern Miss Golden Eagles	43.6	22
East Carolina Pirates	66.8	28	Boxscore
@ Tulane Green Wave	33.2	21
Colorado State Rams	11.9	15	Boxscore
@ Boise State Broncos	88.1	29
Hawaii Warriors	30.2	16	Boxscore
@ Air Force Falcons	69.8	25
Wyoming Cowboys	55.4	25	Boxscore
@ UNLV Rebels	44.6	22
Nevada Wolf Pack	78.2	28	Boxscore
@ New Mexico Lobos	21.8	19
North Texas Mean Green	29.7	22	Boxscore
@ Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks	70.3	28
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers	34.7	23	Boxscore
@ Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns	65.3	28
Arkansas State Red Wolves	55.4	32	Boxscore
@ Troy Trojans	44.6	29
FIU Golden Panthers	62.4	24	Boxscore
@ Florida Atlantic Owls	37.6	21
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders	77.7	30	Boxscore
@ South Alabama Jaguars	22.3	21

Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.

Check out our 2012 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Upsets of the Week.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.