Rose Bowl Picture Getting Clearer: Predicted Winners

Remember the good old days when the Rose Bowl pitted the Pac-8 champion against the Big Ten champion? Ah, life was simple then.

Since then there have been many changes, such as:

• The Pac-8 is now the Pac-12, with two divisions
• The Big Ten is still called the Big Ten, but has 12 teams
• Both the Pac-12 and Big Ten have championship games
• The BCS system—which will go away after next year—dictates the top bowl games, including the national championship game

It’s no longer simple to figure out who’s going to the Rose Bowl. In fact, it may require strict interpretation of the fine print in the selection process guidelines.

Much will change over the next two weeks as the regular season winds down. For now, here are predictions of division and conference champions, a dark horse possibility, and a final prediction for the Rose Bowl.

Pac-12 Championship

Pac-12 North 

No. 1 Oregon, No. 14 Stanford and No. 15 Oregon State are the top-three teams in the Pac-12 North division. 

Stanford’s win over Oregon State puts OSU on the outside looking in.  Oregon and Stanford both have tough schedules over the last two weeks.  They play each other this week in Euguene, then Oregon has its Civil War game at Oregon State, while Stanford travels to UCLA. 

Upsets are possible, but Oregon is the No. 1 team in the country and has the inside track.

Predicted Winner: Oregon

Pac-12 South 

It’s a two-team race for the Pac-12 South division between No. 21 USC and No. 17 UCLA. 

UCLA has the edge right now with two Pac-12 losses compared with three for USC.  But both finish the season with tough games.  USC plays UCLA and then a non-conference game with undefeated No. 4 Notre Dame. 

UCLA plays USC and then Stanford—anything can happen.

Predicted winner: USC

Pac-12 Championship 

The game will be played on the field of the team with the better record.  Almost certainly that will be the team from the North division.

Predicted winner: Oregon

Big Ten Championship

Leaders Division

This has come down to either No. 16 Nebraska (yes, they’re in the Big Ten now) or No. 23 Michigan. 

Both teams play Iowa in the next two weeks.  Nebraska’s other game is against Minnesota, while Michigan’s is against its traditional ultra-rival Ohio State.  Ohio State is undefeated, and will be a tough game.

Predicted winner: Nebraska

Legends Division 

This year the Legends division could be called the ‘Bad Boy’ division.  The top three teams are No. 6 Ohio State, Wisconsin and Penn State.  Of those three, only Wisconsin is eligible for postseason play. 

Therefore, despite their two conference losses already, Wisconsin is guaranteed a spot in the conference championship game.  It doesn’t matter how they do in their two remaining games against Ohio State and Penn State.

Predicted winner: Wisconsin (guaranteed)

Big-Ten Championship

This game will be played in Indianapolis.  That doesn’t necessarily favor one team or the other.

Predicted winner: Nebraska

Rose Bowl Dark Horse: Notre Dame

Now it is time to read the fine print for the Rose Bowl selection process.

If either the Pac-12 or Big Ten champion plays in the national championship game instead of the Rose Bowl, the Rose Bowl committee has the right to make another selection.  The rules are complicated, but here’s a simple interpretation.

They may select the next highest ranking team from the same conference as long as that team is in the top 14 in the final BCS poll.  Thus, if Oregon were to play in the national championship game, it is possible that Stanford would be selected.

However, the Committee is not restricted to the Pac-12 or Big Ten.  In fact, they could select any team that fits their criteria.  You may recall, for example, when Texas played in the Rose Bowl a few years ago, breaking the hearts of many Cal fans since Cal was the next highest ranking team in the Pac-12.

In this case, there is an obvious alternate choice.  Taking into consideration things like fan base and television appeal, and taking into account the difficulty making it into the national championship game, it’s entirely possible that Notre Dame will be undefeated with nowhere to go.  They would certainly get a top BCS bowl game.  The only question is which one.  The Rose Bowl is a possibility.

Prediction: Notre Dame plays in Fiesta Bowl

Rose Bowl Prediction

So it boils down to this:

• Nebraska knocks off Wisconsin for the Big Ten championship
• Oregon beats USC for the Pac-12 championship
• Oregon plays Kansas State in the national championship game
• Stanford gets invited to the Rose Bowl in place of Oregon

That makes for a Cornhusker—Cardinal matchup on Jan. 1 in a game that could be very entertaining.

Predicted winner: Stanford