NFL Power Rankings Week 10: Each Team's Chance to Win Its Division

Now that every NFL team is at least halfway through its schedule, the division races are starting to heat up.

A few teams have opened up a wide lead in their respective divisions, while other leaders will face a significant amount of pressure from their rivals as they fight for a playoff spot.

Each game will become increasingly more important going forward, and each result will reveal a little more of the postseason picture.

Here are my Week 10 power rankings with each team’s chance to its division.  

1. Atlanta Falcons (8-0)

Chance to win NFC South: 90 percent

After going undefeated through the first half of their schedule, the Falcons have all but ended this division race. In the bigger picture, Atlanta has not looked all that impressive in several of their wins, and their spot at the top of the power rankings is not as solid as their record suggests.

2. San Francisco 49ers (6-2)

Chance to win NFC West: 80 percent

While the Chicago Bears may have the hottest defense in the NFL, the 49ers still have the best defense in football. Despite a decent season from Seattle, the Niners will cruise to their second straight division title.

3. Houston Texans (7-1)

Chance to win AFC South: 85 percent 

The Texans are incredibly talented on both sides of the ball and are firmly establishing themselves as the best team in the AFC. If not for a late surge from the Indianapolis Colts, they would be a complete lock to win the division. Still, this race is also nearly over.

4. Chicago Bears (7-1)

Chance to win NFC North: 50 percent 

Chicago’s defense has been incredible in the past several games, but its age is still a concern. Throw in a surging Green Bay Packers, and the NFC North is close to a tossup. This will be a fascinating race.

  

5. Green Bay Packers (6-3)

Chance to win NFC North: 40 percent

While the Bears defense is red hot, so is Aaron Rodgers. The Packers may be banged up, but they have a bye week to get healthy and look ready for a late-season surge. Two historic rivals battling for the division will make for a fantastic finish.

6. New York Giants (6-3)

Chance to win NFC East: 85 percent 

While the Giants are coming off a loss, so are the other three teams in the division. New York is still a contender, but even if they slump, they will still win the NFC East by default.

7. Denver Broncos (5-3)

Chance to win AFC West: 75 percent

While just one game separates the Broncos and the San Diego Chargers, these two teams are miles apart. Peyton Manning is playing at an MVP level, and the defense is continuing to improve. The Broncos will pull away with this division.

8. New England Patriots (5-3) 

Chance to win AFC East: 75 percent

The Patriots are another team that may have struggled at points this season but will win their division by default. The New York Jets and Buffalo Bills are terrible, and while the Miami Dolphins have shown promise, they are too inconsistent to make the postseason this year.

9. Baltimore Ravens (6-2)

Chance to win AFC North: 48 percent

The Ravens started off strong, but injuries to key players have slowed their momentum. The offense has not improved as much as fans were hoping, and the Pittsburgh Steelers are starting to get back on track. The AFC North is a dead-even race.

10. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3) 

Chance to win AFC North: 48 percent 

Now that the Steelers are on a three-game winning streak and coming off a victory over the defending Super Bowl champs, the AFC North is significantly more interesting. This race will go down to the wire.

11. Seattle Seahawks (5-4)

Chance to win NFC West: 10 percent

The Seahawks have shown plenty of promise this season with a young and extremely talented defense. With Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson, the team has potential on offense but has not shown enough production to have a real chance to win the NFC West.

12. Indianapolis Colts (5-3) 

Chance to win AFC South: 10 Percent

What Andrew Luck and the Colts have done in Chuck Pagano’s absence has been truly inspiring. But even Luck will not receive enough good fortune to find a way to catch the Texans.

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4)

Chance to win NFC South: 5 percent 

The Bucs play solid defense, and with newfound star Doug Martin in the backfield, they can certainly run the ball. That may allow them to sneak into a Wild Card spot, but they have almost no chance at catching the Falcons.

14. Miami Dolphins (4-4) 

Chance to win AFC East: 15 percent 

The Dolphins are one of the biggest surprises this season. Looking at their roster, it was difficult to see how they would win four games all season, much less in the first half of the schedule. But Miami still will not catch the Patriots in the East.

15. San Diego Chargers (4-4)

Chance to win AFC West: 20 percent

There is talent on this team, but Norv Turner and Philip Rivers have turned underperforming into an art. This team seems destined for 8-8 or worse, and that will not win them a division title.

16. Minnesota Vikings (5-4)

Chance to win NFC North: 5 percent

The Vikings had an impressive start to the season, but they have a brutal schedule the rest of the way and have lost three of their last four games. This has all but ended their hopes at shockingly winning the NFC North.

17. Detroit Lions (4-4)

Chance to win NFC North: 5 percent 

There is little hope for the deeply flawed Lions to win this extremely competitive division. Detroit must find a way to get Calvin Johnson and Matthew Stafford back on track or it will not be returning to the postseason.

18. Arizona Cardinals (4-5)

Chance to win NFC West: 7 percent 

The Cardinals defense allowed the team to get out to a fast start, but pass protection has been an extremely worrisome problem since then. It does not appear as if Arizona will be able to bounce back and find its way to a winning record.

19. Dallas Cowboys (3-5) 

Chance to win NFC East: 5 percent 

The Cowboys are another team that has consistently found a way to underachieve in recent years. Tony Romo has been far too careless with the ball this season and is not doing his talented defense any favors. Dallas has lost sight of the Giants in the NFC East race.

20. Washington Redskins (3-6)

Chance to win NFC East: 5 percent

The Redskins have serious problems on defense, but Robert Griffin III has given fans a reason to get excited for the future. When the team fixes a few of its problems, it will make a postseason run. But that will not happen this season.

21. Cincinnati Bengals (3-5) 

Chance to win AFC North: 4 percent 

The Bengals seemed destined not to meet the standard they set for themselves last season. At this point, the hole they have dug themselves makes it nearly impossible to catch Pittsburgh and Baltimore in the division.

22. Philadelphia Eagles (3-5)

Chance to win NFC East: 5 percent

While Dallas and San Diego have had a firm hold on the title for biggest underachievers over the past few seasons, the Eagles are making a strong push to take this title. There is talent on this team, but the turnovers have plagued them, and Philadelphia may be headed for major changes this offseason.

23. New Orleans Saints (3-5)

Chance to win NFC South: 4 percent 

The Saints have shown life, but their defense will not allow them to go on to have a successful season. While they will not have as bad a season as it looked like they would after the first few weeks, this will ultimately be a disappointing year.

24. St. Louis Rams (3-5)

Chance to win NFC West: 3 percent

Jeff Fisher is building a foundation for success in St. Louis, but this will be an ongoing project. He has the team moving in the right direction, but the moves he has made will not pay off this season.

25. Buffalo Bills (3-5) 

Chance to win AFC East: 5 percent 

The Bills have been one of the year’s biggest disappointments, as the high-priced defense has severely underperformed. The road forward does not look good for this team.

26. Carolina Panthers (2-6)

Chance to win NFC South: 1 percent

The Panthers have lost far too many games to have any chance at catching the undefeated Falcons. Cam Newton is still an elite talent, despite his recent play. This team has the ability to be good in future seasons, but it looks lost this year.

27. New York Jets (3-5)

Chance to win AFC East: 5 percent

Unfortunately for the Jets, benching Mark Sanchez in favor of Tim Tebow will not boost their chances at a division title. The team’s problems go deeper than that, and this will be an interesting offseason for the team.

28. Oakland Raiders (3-5)

Chance to win AFC West: 4 percent 

The Raiders may not be that far off the division lead. But the team’s run defense was one its biggest strengths and was completely torched by Tampa Bay. There isn’t any one area of the game in which Oakland consistently performs well.

29. Tennessee Titans (3-6)

Chance to win NFC South: 3 percent

A slight resurgence from Chris Johnson has perked up the team’s chances a little but still has not made any major difference. The Titans are another team that will be in for major changes after their season ends.

30. Cleveland Browns (2-7)

Chance to win AFC North: 1 percent

Brandon Weeden has shown improvement, and Trent Richardson looks like he will be an extremely productive back. However, it will be at least one more season until this team’s talent turns into wins.

31. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7) 

Chance to win NFC South: 2 percent

Both the good and the bad news for Jacksonville is that they are performing about as well as they were expected to this season. Losing Maurice Jones-Drew for a few weeks hurt them even more, and the Jaguars should already be looking toward next season.

32. Kansas City Chiefs (1-7)

Chance to win AFC West: 1 percent

Putting a team’s chances to win their division at 0 percent suggests that they have been mathematically eliminated, which is not the case for Kansas City. However, there is no team playing worse football right now, and no team that has less of a chance to win its division.