2012 College Football Week 11 Picks: Stanford over Oregon State

If you scanned any of the Pac-12 box scores from Week 10 or any of Oregon's this season, this may not come as a surprise to you. Nine of the 12 teams in the conference average more than 24 points per game with 10 of those 12 squads allowing 22 or more points per game. In other words, defense is optional for the majority of the Pac-12 with the exception of two teams: Oregon State (18.1 points allowed per game) and Stanford (16.6 points allowed per game).

The Beavers and Cardinal both excel against the rush with both units ranked in the Top Five nationally, allowing less than 100 yards on the ground per game. Unfortunately, as is expected, the two schools' pass defense isn't that stout. Oregon State is 77th against the pass, allowing more than 247 yards per game. However, they have picked off 14 passes compared to eight touchdowns allowed. Likewise, Stanford allows over 266 yards via the pass each game but have 11 interceptions with nine touchdowns allowed.

OSU quarterback Cody Vaz took the starting gig away from Sean Mannion after Mannion threw four picks in a loss to Washington in addition to having missed two previous games after undergoing knee surgery.

Last week, Coach Riley said Vaz is playing just a bit better right now (via Fox News). He passed for 267 yards with three touchdowns and one pick against Arizona State last Saturday. He's thrown seven touchdowns with one interception, while completing 55.9 percent of his passes.

As has been the case in the past, the Cardinal are balanced on offense with a passing game averaging just over 200 yards passing and a rushing attack that averages over 166 yards per game. Stepfan Taylor remains the workhorse in Stanford's backfield with 206 carries for 947 yards and eight touchdowns.

We simulated the Cardinal and Beavers 101 times, and it's the Cardinal winning 51.5 percent of the time by an average score of 24-23.

College Football Week 11
Matchup	Win%	Avg Score
Maryland Terrapins	21.8	22	Boxscore
@ Clemson Tigers	78.2	31
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	41.6	24	Boxscore
@ North Carolina Tar Heels	58.4	28
Wake Forest Demon Deacons	46.0	20	Boxscore
@ North Carolina State Wolfpack	54.0	21
Florida State Seminoles	62.4	25	Boxscore
@ Virginia Tech Hokies	37.6	20
Miami (FL) Hurricanes	62.4	25	Boxscore
@ Virginia Cavaliers	37.6	21
Notre Dame Fighting Irish	87.1	31	Boxscore
@ Boston College Eagles	12.9	16
Army Black Knights	14.9	15	Boxscore
@ Rutgers Scarlet Knights	85.1	30
Cincinnati Bearcats	55.4	22	Boxscore
@ Temple Owls	44.6	20
Louisville Cardinals	56.9	26	Boxscore
@ Syracuse Orange	43.1	23
Pittsburgh Panthers	59.4	23	Boxscore
@ Connecticut Huskies	40.6	20
Purdue Boilermakers	41.6	23	Boxscore
@ Iowa Hawkeyes	58.4	24
Penn State Nittany Lions	41.1	22	Boxscore
@ Nebraska Cornhuskers	58.9	24
Northwestern Wildcats	43.6	23	Boxscore
@ Michigan Wolverines	56.4	24
Wisconsin Badgers	59.4	26	Boxscore
@ Indiana Hoosiers	40.6	23
Minnesota Golden Gophers	60.4	22	Boxscore
@ Illinois Fighting Illini	39.6	18
Bowling Green Falcons	39.1	22	Boxscore
@ Ohio Bobcats	60.9	25
Massachusetts Minutemen	40.1	19	Boxscore
@ Akron Zips	59.9	23
Ball State Cardinals	48.5	28	Boxscore
@ Toledo Rockets	51.5	29
Kent State Golden Flashes	59.9	26	Boxscore
@ Miami (OH) RedHawks	40.1	20
Central Michigan Chippewas	64.4	26	Boxscore
@ Eastern Michigan Eagles	35.6	21
Western Michigan Broncos	67.3	28	Boxscore
@ Buffalo Bulls	32.7	24
Colorado Buffaloes	24.8	22	Boxscore
@ Arizona Wildcats	75.2	30
Arizona State Sun Devils	41.6	26	Boxscore
@ USC Trojans	58.4	30
Utah Utes	43.1	22	Boxscore
@ Washington Huskies	56.9	24
Oregon State Beavers	48.5	23	Boxscore
@ Stanford Cardinal	51.5	24
UCLA Bruins	68.3	28	Boxscore
@ Washington State Cougars	31.7	22
Oregon Ducks	80.2	31	Boxscore
@ California Golden Bears	19.8	19
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns	17.8	17	Boxscore
@ Florida Gators	82.2	29
Texas A&M Aggies	26.7	19	Boxscore
@ Alabama Crimson Tide	73.3	29
Mississippi State Bulldogs	28.7	18	Boxscore
@ LSU Tigers	71.3	25
Missouri Tigers	40.6	22	Boxscore
@ Tennessee Volunteers	59.4	23
Arkansas Razorbacks	40.6	19	Boxscore
@ South Carolina Gamecocks	59.4	21
Vanderbilt Commodores	48.5	20	Boxscore
@ Mississippi Rebels	51.5	21
Georgia Bulldogs	86.1	27	Boxscore
@ Auburn Tigers	13.9	16
McNeese State Cowboys	5.0	10	Boxscore
@ Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners	95.0	37
San Jose State Spartans	72.3	31	Boxscore
@ New Mexico State Aggies	27.7	23
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs	89.1	35	Boxscore
@ Texas State Bobcats	10.9	18
Idaho Vandals	5.9	16	Boxscore
@ Brigham Young Cougars	94.1	33
Kansas Jayhawks	27.7	23	Boxscore
@ Texas Tech Red Raiders	72.3	32
Baylor Bears	30.7	25	Boxscore
@ Oklahoma Sooners	69.3	31
Iowa State Cyclones	34.2	20	Boxscore
@ Texas Longhorns	65.8	26
West Virginia Mountaineers	40.6	24	Boxscore
@ Oklahoma State Cowboys	59.4	27
Kansas State Wildcats	68.3	27	Boxscore
@ TCU Horned Frogs	31.7	22
Southern Miss Golden Eagles	30.7	22	Boxscore
@ Southern Methodist Mustangs	69.3	29
Tulane Green Wave	54.5	25	Boxscore
@ Memphis Tigers	45.5	23
Tulsa Golden Hurricane	63.4	30	Boxscore
@ Houston Cougars	36.6	26
Marshall Thundering Herd	70.3	29	Boxscore
@ UAB Blazers	29.7	20
UCF Knights	76.2	29	Boxscore
@ UTEP Miners	23.8	20
Air Force Falcons	34.7	21	Boxscore
@ San Diego State Aztecs	65.3	25
UNLV Rebels	49.0	21	Boxscore
@ Colorado State Rams	51.0	22
Fresno State Bulldogs	53.5	25	Boxscore
@ Nevada Wolf Pack	46.5	23
Wyoming Cowboys	68.8	25	Boxscore
@ New Mexico Lobos	31.2	19
Boise State Broncos	95.0	33	Boxscore
@ Hawaii Warriors	5.0	13
South Alabama Jaguars	30.7	19	Boxscore
@ North Texas Mean Green	69.3	26
Florida Atlantic Owls	34.7	21	Boxscore
@ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers	65.3	26
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks	46.5	24	Boxscore
@ Arkansas State Red Wolves	53.5	26
Navy Midshipmen	62.9	28	Boxscore
@ Troy Trojans	37.1	26

Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.

Check out our 2012 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Upsets of the Week.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension, and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.