2009 Fantasy Football Red Flag Players
After every fantasy football season there are always a handful of skilled player at each position that you have your doubts about heading into the next season.
Whether the doubts stem from poor play towards the end of the previous season, skewed statistics or losing their supporting cast to free agency you should approach these players with caution when you are drafting your fantasy football team every August.
It might be just the middle of March, but it's never to early to identify players who might head into 2009 with more perceived value than they really have. Therefore, it's time to take a look at some players that might hold a "red flag" come August.
QUARTERBACKS
Tony Romo (Dallas Cowboys) — The Cowboys brass think the offense will be just fine without Terrell Owens, but don't believe everything you hear. The offense showed signs of slowing down towards the end of the 2008 season and the loss of Owens means the Cowboys need to replace 3,587 receiving yards and 38 touchdowns since the 2006 season.
With Patrick Crayton and Miles Austin competing to start alongside Roy Williams the odds of that happening soon are slim. Tony Romo will have the talented Williams as his primary target, but in 2008 Williams had trouble adapting to the Dallas playbook and totaled just 16 receptions for 160 receiving yards in seven games with Romo at quarterback.
You can expect Romo to still be a top-7 fantasy football QB in 2009, but with Owens doing his thing in Buffalo and the Cowboys offense failing to have a true play-maker, limit your expectations.
2009 Target Round: Think late 4th or early 5th round (standard scoring)
Jake Delhomme (Carolina Panthers) — Coming off Tommy John surgery in 2007, Delhomme showed signs of turning the corner in 2008, but a dismal showing against the Oakland Raiders during week 10 led to a second half to forget.
After his poor performance, the Panthers made a commitment to the ground game and the two head monster of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart led Carolina to 12-4 record and a first round playoff bye. Heading into 2009 you can expect Carolina to continue to possess a run heavy offense and with Delhomme not having much left in the tank you shouldn't be relying on him to help your fantasy team. I
n fact, the Bruno Boys wouldn't be surprised if he isn't the starter by seasons end.
2009 Target Round: Think QB2 in 12 team leagues with little upside
RUNNING BACKS
Jamal Lewis (Cleveland Browns) — After a big 2007 season, many fantasy owners targeted Lewis early in 2008 and he never lived up to the hype. We included him as a "red flag" player last season and you should do the same in 2009. He averaged just 3.6 yards per carry, showed signs of slowing down towards the end of the season, and could only muster 37 fantasy football points over the season's final seven games.
Despite having a solid offensive line, the Cleveland Browns offense reverted back to mediocrity last year, and unless they can find consistency at the quarterback position you can't expect much more than 55-65 rushing yards per game out of Lewis. Plus, the Browns are aware that Lewis has carried the football 2,399 times in his career and doesn't have enough in his tank to endure another 290-300 carries.
2009 Target Round: Think RB3 and target in the 7th or 8th round
Laurence Maroney (New England Patriots) — Thus far Maroney has been the true definition of the word "bust", but like every year he will be over-hyped during the off-season and someone will take him far to early in your fantasy football draft.
New England has brought in veteran Fred Taylor to compete for carries and Patriots head coach Bill Belichick has turned into a poor man's Mike Shanahan when distributing carries to his running backs. Maroney has played just 16 games since 2007, hasn't scored a touchdown in over a season and his inability to stay on the field has to be a huge concern in Foxboro. There might be times during the season when Maroney shows flashes of stardom, but with Taylor, Sammy Morris and Kevin Faulk on the roster there won't be enough touches for him to have true fantasy value. Especially since quarterback Tom Brady is healthy and the Patriots will gear up the passing attack.
2009 Target Round: Think RB3/Flex and target in the 10th-12th rounds
WIDE RECEIVERS
Bernard Berrian (Minnesota Vikings) — Berrian had a solid 2008 campaign and was just 36 yards shy of eclipsing 1,000 receiving yards on the season, but it's his low reception totals that put up a red flag heading into 2009. Arguably the best deep ball threat in all of football, Berrian had just 48 receptions and seven games with 4 or less fantasy football points.
If he didn't catch the deep ball he was limited at best and with the Vikings doing nothing to improve their receiving corps you can expect teams to game-plan his way in 2009. The Bruno Boys aren't saying that Berrian will bust next year, but we have a tough time relying on guys who lack consistency and unless Berrian is given more opportunity as a possession receiver it could be a roller coaster 2009.
2009 Target Round: Think WR3, but be afraid of his low reception totals. 7th or 8th round
Antonio Bryant (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) — At this stage last season Bryant was trying to find an NFL home, but a huge December has him climbing the charts of fantasy football wide receivers come 2009.
The same thing that makes people rave about Bryant, is also the reason why we give him the "red flag" tag heading into this years fantasy drafts.
Bryant had 46 receptions for 797 receiving yards and six touchdowns over the seasons final two months (November & December) and when owners draft him as their high end WR2 this year they are going to expect similar production.
However, Tampa Bay has yet to fill the void at quarterback, they have brought in running back Derrick Ward to help shore up the ground game and teams will make it a priority to limit Bryant's chances to make the big play. He will get his fantasy football points, but they will come in moderation and if you shouldn't draft him expecting his production to be consistent with last years.
2009 Target Round: Think low end WR2 and target in the late 5th-7th rounds
TIGHT ENDS
Antonio Gates (San Diego Chargers)— There is no doubt about it Gates is one of the premier tight ends in the NFL, but don't overvalue him heading into 2009. Position scarcity or not, odds are Gates will fly off the board in the 5th round, which is when you actually should be using that round to snag depth at the RB or WR spot, especially if your leagues uses a Flex position.
After watching film on the San Diego Chargers this off-season, you will notice that Gates was quarterback Philip Rivers second option in the passing game and because of this he saw a significant decline in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. To his defense he was playing with a bad foot the majority of the season, so his numbers should improve in 2009, but why waste a 5th round pick on a guy like Gates when you can get similar value out of someone like Dallas Clark, Chris Cooley or Kellen Winslow in the 8th or 9th round?
2009 Target Round: Think TE1, but don't overvalue. The Bruno Boys wouldn't touch him until the 6th or 7th round
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