Setting Statistical Expectations for Stephen Curry's Contract Extension

Happy Halloween Stephen Curry! You’re getting paid! To the tune of $44 million over the next four seasons.

Now that the Golden State Warriors have taken care of Curry, what kind of numbers should we expect out of the young guard? (Listen up, fantasy basketball players!)

We all know that Curry can ball out. The biggest issue is his health, particularly those pesky ankles. After missing 10 games in his first two seasons combined, Curry was forced to sit out 40 games in 2012 with persistent ankle issues (should have gotten that Kobe Bryant ankle insurance, Steph).

It’s hard to call someone injury-prone after one lost season, but it’s safe to tag Curry with that label after seeing him struggle with his ankles so mightily and so often.  The fact that he has already sprained his ankle in the preseason just confirms all the fears. It’s impossible to predict injury, but at this point it’s irrational to expect him to average more than 70 games a year going forward.

While he is on the court, though, Curry will produce. Over his three pro seasons he has established a solid statistical baseline of around 17 points, four rebounds and six assists per game on excellent shooting from the field, three and foul line. Expect that sort of output to continue.

If you’re looking for a huge statistical leap, it’s not coming. Curry is a scorer masquerading as a point guard. He does a good job of balancing those two qualities, but the fact that he has to play that role will temper his production in both categories. He’ll never score 25 a game or dish out 10 assists a night.

At his absolute apex, Curry can approach 19-5-7 (PTS/REB/AST) on 48/44/92 (FG/3PT/FT) shooting splits to go along with two steals a night.

For fantasy purposes, he’ll be a high risk/high reward guy who will be drafted either too high (if he misses significant time) or too low (if he plays 75 games). In real life, he’ll be an offensive dynamo who can’t guard anybody.

The Warriors may think they locked up their point guard of the future in this deal, but Curry’s papier-mâché ankles and defensive deficiencies will ensure that he remains a better entity in fantasy than reality.