2012 College Football Week 10 Picks: Oregon over USC

In a game where Marqise Lee racked up 345 receiving yards (on 16 receptions) and 469 all-purpose yards, it's hard to fathom USC losing to any team, let alone Arizona (1-3 in the Pac-12 heading into Week 9).

However, the Trojans' 618 yards of total offense is watered down when the Wildcats boast 588 total yards and force five (!) turnovers, three fumbles and two interceptions. You play to win the game, but you need the ball to win the game in a shootout like the one last Saturday in Tuscon.

Besides the damning loss to USC's national championship hopes, why does this loss to Arizona matter? Well, the Trojans' Week 10 opponent, Oregon, beat the Wildcats 49-0 in late September.

The Ducks (8-0) are steamrolling the opposition by an average score of 53-19. The offense is third in the country in rushing (330 yards per game) behind traditional run-oriented offenses Army and Air Force and has scored the most rushing touchdowns in the country (34). Kenjon Barner paces the offense with 974 yards on 141 carries (6.9 yards per rush) with 14 touchdowns. He's one of four Ducks with over 350 rushing yards to-date.

As for USC, the aforementioned Lee already has 76 receptions for 1,129 yards (141.1 rec. yards per game, 2nd in NCAA) with 10 touchdowns (second in NCAA). Quarterback Matt Barkley is completing over 65 percent of his passes for over 2,200 yards with 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Without question, the Trojans' main goal on Saturday is slowing down the Ducks' ground game. USC is 29th in the country in rush defense, allowing just over 123 yards per game, but only six touchdowns via the ground.

We simulated the Ducks and Trojans 101 times and it's Oregon coming away with the win 57.4 percent of the time by an average score of 29-27.

College Football Week 10
Matchup	Win%	Avg Score
Boston College Eagles	32.7	20	Boxscore
@ Wake Forest Demon Deacons	67.3	26
Virginia Cavaliers	32.7	19	Boxscore
@ North Carolina State Wolfpack	67.3	24
Virginia Tech Hokies	39.6	24	Boxscore
@ Miami (FL) Hurricanes	60.4	25
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	55.4	26	Boxscore
@ Maryland Terrapins	44.6	23
Clemson Tigers	58.4	31	Boxscore
@ Duke Blue Devils	41.6	26
Temple Owls	32.2	21	Boxscore
@ Louisville Cardinals	67.8	26
Syracuse Orange	48.5	23	Boxscore
@ Cincinnati Bearcats	51.5	24
Connecticut Huskies	49.5	20	Boxscore
@ South Florida Bulls	50.5	22
Illinois Fighting Illini	10.9	14	Boxscore
@ Ohio State Buckeyes	89.1	28
Nebraska Cornhuskers	53.5	24	Boxscore
@ Michigan State Spartans	46.5	21
Michigan Wolverines	59.4	25	Boxscore
@ Minnesota Golden Gophers	40.6	21
Penn State Nittany Lions	64.4	23	Boxscore
@ Purdue Boilermakers	35.6	19
Iowa Hawkeyes	67.3	27	Boxscore
@ Indiana Hoosiers	32.7	22
Massachusetts Minutemen	13.9	15	Boxscore
@ Northern Illinois Huskies	86.1	29
Eastern Michigan Eagles	17.3	16	Boxscore
@ Ohio Bobcats	82.7	27
Akron Zips	18.8	15	Boxscore
@ Kent State Golden Flashes	81.2	28
Miami (OH) RedHawks	61.9	24	Boxscore
@ Buffalo Bulls	38.1	20
Western Michigan Broncos	66.3	31	Boxscore
@ Central Michigan Chippewas	33.7	25
Arizona State Sun Devils	43.6	24	Boxscore
@ Oregon State Beavers	56.4	26
Washington Huskies	49.5	24	Boxscore
@ California Golden Bears	50.5	25
Washington State Cougars	49.5	25	Boxscore
@ Utah Utes	50.5	26
Arizona Wildcats	55.4	26	Boxscore
@ UCLA Bruins	44.6	25
Oregon Ducks	57.4	29	Boxscore
@ USC Trojans	42.6	27
Stanford Cardinal	84.2	28	Boxscore
@ Colorado Buffaloes	15.8	16
Troy Trojans	10.9	18	Boxscore
@ Tennessee Volunteers	89.1	34
New Mexico State Aggies	20.3	16	Boxscore
@ Auburn Tigers	79.7	27
Missouri Tigers	28.7	16	Boxscore
@ Florida Gators	71.3	23
Mississippi Rebels	31.7	19	Boxscore
@ Georgia Bulldogs	68.3	25
Tulsa Golden Hurricane	46.0	26	Boxscore
@ Arkansas Razorbacks	54.0	28
Texas A&M Aggies	55.4	25	Boxscore
@ Mississippi State Bulldogs	44.6	22
Vanderbilt Commodores	67.8	21	Boxscore
@ Kentucky Wildcats	32.2	15
Alabama Crimson Tide	74.3	24	Boxscore
@ LSU Tigers	25.7	18
Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners	15.8	22	Boxscore
@ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs	84.2	37
Texas State Bobcats	21.8	19	Boxscore
@ Utah State Aggies	78.2	28
San Jose State Spartans	68.3	29	Boxscore
@ Idaho Vandals	31.7	22
Pittsburgh Panthers	23.8	20	Boxscore
@ Notre Dame Fighting Irish	76.2	29
Florida Atlantic Owls	23.8	18	Boxscore
@ Navy Midshipmen	76.2	25
Air Force Falcons	70.3	28	Boxscore
@ Army Black Knights	29.7	20
Kansas Jayhawks	34.7	23	Boxscore
@ Baylor Bears	65.3	28
TCU Horned Frogs	39.6	26	Boxscore
@ West Virginia Mountaineers	60.4	29
Oklahoma State Cowboys	40.6	23	Boxscore
@ Kansas State Wildcats	59.4	26
Texas Longhorns	44.6	24	Boxscore
@ Texas Tech Red Raiders	55.4	26
Oklahoma Sooners	68.3	28	Boxscore
@ Iowa State Cyclones	31.7	23
Memphis Tigers	25.7	21	Boxscore
@ Marshall Thundering Herd	74.3	29
UAB Blazers	38.6	21	Boxscore
@ Southern Miss Golden Eagles	61.4	25
Southern Methodist Mustangs	47.5	25	Boxscore
@ UCF Knights	52.5	26
Houston Cougars	53.5	29	Boxscore
@ East Carolina Pirates	46.5	28
Rice Owls	54.0	24	Boxscore
@ Tulane Green Wave	46.0	23
Hawaii Warriors	10.9	17	Boxscore
@ Fresno State Bulldogs	89.1	30
San Diego State Aztecs	27.7	23	Boxscore
@ Boise State Broncos	72.3	31
Colorado State Rams	32.7	20	Boxscore
@ Wyoming Cowboys	67.3	24
New Mexico Lobos	46.5	24	Boxscore
@ UNLV Rebels	53.5	26
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns	41.6	26	Boxscore
@ Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks	58.4	29
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders	46.5	24	Boxscore
@ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers	53.5	25
FIU Golden Panthers	65.3	27	Boxscore
@ South Alabama Jaguars	34.7	21
Arkansas State Red Wolves	74.3	29	Boxscore
@ North Texas Mean Green	25.7	23

Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.

Check out our 2012 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Upsets of the Week.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.