Analysis on The NBA MVP Race

There has been a bunch of hype related to the MVP race. Some people think the MVP should be on a truly elite team. Others believe that stats are the most important. There are numerous other methods of assessment which I will be going through in this article.

I am a Heat fan, but my assessment will be fair to each candidate. That I promise.

The Statistical Approach

After I provide stats I will declare a winner for each category which is somewhat based on position. (An example is that Lebron's blocks should be more or that Wade's 3pt % should be higher).

Points, Rebounds, and Assist wins will get more value than the other 3. FG percentage will factor to my decision in PPG. The Best after calculations that gets 2 points. The 2nd best gets 1 point and the last one gets 0. For the 1st 3, points are doubled.

My format for stats is PPG, RPG, APG,fg %, 3PT %,BPG and SPG.

Dwayne Wade: 29.7, 5.1, 7.7, .495, .314, 1.41 and 2.25

Lebron James: 28.2, 7.5, 7.1, .487, .332, 1.19 and 1.70

Kobe Bryant: 28.1, 5.4, 4.9, .475, ,339, .45 and 1.3

Points Per Game

This category goes to Dwayne Wade because he has the highest ppg and fg%. Lebron comes second after Wade cause his stats are better than Kobe's in the category.

Rebounds Per Game

Now positions will start coming in to to play. In this case Lebron is #1 for SF, and Wade and Bryant are no where close to #1 for SG this goes to Lebron then Bryant, then Wade.

Assists per game

Wade beats Kobe within SG so its Wade's 7.7 versus James' 7.1. I've chosen to include turnover ratio in this category. Wade's apg/tpg is 2.18 where as Lebron is 2.31. There fore it is Wade, Lebron, then Kobe.

3pt %

For me, this is purely based on Stats. Kobe, Lebron, Wade.

Blocks

A SG getting more blocks than a SF? Wade is the one. Wade, Lebron, Kobe

Steals

This is purely on Stats too. Wade, Lebron, Kobe

Wade has 12 pts.

Lebron has 11 pts.

Kobe has 3 pts.

I would give points for being all arounded but the stats are too close in the case of Wade and Lebron for that to be fair. Less than 1 point of difference for each stat.

Team Record

I'm giving each player points out of 5 for their record. Same for head to head. Based out of 5.

Wade: 3 points out of 5

Lebron: 5 out of 5

Kobe: 5 out of 5

Wade has 15

Lebron has 16

Kobe has 8

Team Talent

How good are the talent around them.

Can't say for sure so I'm going to go by experience and average PER comparison (how they fare against the rest of the league)(by John Hollinger) for Top 10 players other than MVP candidate. Out of 5. Weaker the team the better.

At least in this case...All teams will be in negatives cause most backups are under league average. Especially by the tim we get to 10.

Heat: -31.26 under league average.

Cavs: -14.94

Lakers: 3.44 over.

Well says a lot about Kobe's talent level around him that he has positive numbers without including himself.

Wade: If you double his score and add it, the Heat are still in the negatives! 5 points.

Lebron: His starters were well in the positives but the backups brought it down. 3 points.

Kobe: 0. Your not valuable if your team is positive without you.

Wade: 20 points

Lebron: 19

Kobe: 8

Head to Head

You get as many points as how many games you are above .500 in head to head. Heat get to add 2 wins to their head to head. The Cavs add 1. Multiply game lead for Lakers by 1.5 because he only gets 4 head to heads where as Wade and Lebron get 6.

Wade: 1-1 and 1-3. Plus 2 equals .500

Lebron: 0-2 and 3-1. Plus 1 equals 1 game over .500

Kobe: 1-1 and 2-0. 2 games over 500. x 1.5 = 3 games over.

Wade has 20

Lebron has 20

Kobe has 11

Valuable Predictions

The Heat without Wade: They would be worse than the worst team ever. I'd assume that they would go 5-76 without Wade. Thats a 40 games less than they'll probably win.

40 + or - 3 differential without Wade.

The Cavs without Lebron: Like Charlotte. A decent 28-36 record. I'd say they end up with a 36- 46 record without Lebron. Around 20 games less.

20 + or - 5.

The Lakers without Kobe. Like the Suns. End up at 44- 38 mark. That's also around 22 games less.

22 + or - 3.

Wade gets 5 points in this category. Lebron gets 4 as does Kobe because their teams miss the playoffs without them.

Improvement

Improvement from Career to this year in each category

PPG, RPG, APG, FG%, 3PT%, SPG, and BPG

Wade: 4,8, .2, 1, .011, .034, .43, and .46= Improvement of 6.935

Lebron: .7, .5, .5, .017, .017, -.06, .34= 2.014

Kobe: 2.9, .1, .3, .02,-.001, -.21, -.13= 2.339

Wade shows most improvement. Lebron the least. 1 point for showing improvement. 3 for Wade, 2 for Kobe, 1 for Lebron.

Final Standings

Wade: 28 points

Lebron: 25 points

Kobe: 17 points

I thinks its obvious that Kobe Shouldn't win MVP by now unless its purely on team record. I think its Wade but the difference between him and Lebron isn't much. Being a Heat fan, one can make the case that a couple points I gave Wade may not be fair.

My Vote is Wade or Wade/Lebron Tie because Wade has been statistically superior and more valuable this season. Teams records are important too so Lebron deserves some points in that category. Kobe's stats aren't even close enough to being in conversation.

Hopefully the MVP goes to the best man. Or men.