2012 College Football Week 9 Picks: Alabama over Mississippi State

Before I get into our game of the week, I must touch on my Week 8 write-up where I poked fun at a Kansas State team that crept into the national conversation without much fanfare. I thought a trip to Morgantown would for sure expose the weaknesses in the Wildcats' offense and defense, but as it turned out, the script was flipped and it was West Virginia and Geno Smith that were exposed on Saturday night.

So, as is accustomed in many of the features on WhatIfSports.com, I quote one Happy Gilmore as part of my apology:

"I'm stupid. You're smart. I was wrong. You were right. You're the best. I'm the worst. You're very good-looking. I'm not attractive."

Hopefully that allows us to bury the hatchet and move on with the rest of the college football season. Kansas State is not to be underestimated and overlooked in 2012.

All right, on to the SEC West Showdown and annual 90-mile Drive: Mississippi State at Alabama.

The Crimson Tide has won the last four meetings by a combined score of 117-27. Turns out, Alabama's football identity remains its lockdown defense. Through the first seven games, Nick Saban's defense has allowed 58 points or 8.3 points per game (that includes two shutouts).

On offense, A.J. McCarron continues to manage the passing offense—a la Alex Smith or Christian Ponder in the NFL—with 16 passing touchdowns and no picks (passing offense is ranked 75th in the country). Meanwhile, the rush attack (20th in country, 219.4 yards per game) adopted a next-man-up mentality after an injury knocked Jalston Fowler to the sidelines. Eddie Lacy and T.J. Yeldon have combined for over 1,100 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns this season.

Bulldogs' head coach Dan Mullen will be forced to answer plenty of questions regarding his team's 7-0 start and if it defines how good his squad really is this season.

Why? Well, their 3-0 SEC record has come against squads that are a combined 0-14 in the conference (Auburn, Kentucky and Tennessee). Three of their non-conference wins came against opponents out of the Sun Belt. It would truly be difficult to gauge what their most quality win has been to this point.

What does Mississippi State have going for them?

McCarron will face Mississippi State's 21st-ranked passing defense. The defense is 48th against the rush (allow over 139 rush yards per game), but have only allowed five touchdowns via the ground.

On offense, junior quarterback Tyler Russell has thrown 15 touchdowns with only one pick this season. LaDarius Perkins is the featured back with 724 yards and eight touchdowns on 125 carries.

We simulated the Tide and Bulldogs 101 times and it's Alabama rolling over 76 percent of the time by an average score of 28-18.

College Football Week 9
Matchup	Win%	Avg Score
Duke Blue Devils	29.2	23	Boxscore
@ Florida State Seminoles	70.8	29
North Carolina State Wolfpack	49.5	24	Boxscore
@ North Carolina Tar Heels	50.5	25
Brigham Young Cougars	50.5	26	Boxscore
@ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	49.5	25
Maryland Terrapins	60.4	26	Boxscore
@ Boston College Eagles	39.6	22
Clemson Tigers	63.4	28	Boxscore
@ Wake Forest Demon Deacons	36.6	22
Kent State Golden Flashes	22.8	15	Boxscore
@ Rutgers Scarlet Knights	77.2	25
Temple Owls	44.6	23	Boxscore
@ Pittsburgh Panthers	55.4	25
Syracuse Orange	44.1	24	Boxscore
@ South Florida Bulls	55.9	27
Cincinnati Bearcats	47.0	22	Boxscore
@ Louisville Cardinals	53.0	23
Iowa Hawkeyes	36.6	23	Boxscore
@ Northwestern Wildcats	63.4	27
Michigan State Spartans	49.5	23	Boxscore
@ Wisconsin Badgers	50.5	24
Indiana Hoosiers	55.0	23	Boxscore
@ Illinois Fighting Illini	45.0	21
Michigan Wolverines	58.4	25	Boxscore
@ Nebraska Cornhuskers	41.6	24
Purdue Boilermakers	59.4	25	Boxscore
@ Minnesota Golden Gophers	40.6	20
Ohio State Buckeyes	63.4	24	Boxscore
@ Penn State Nittany Lions	36.6	19
Akron Zips	29.7	20	Boxscore
@ Central Michigan Chippewas	70.3	28
Eastern Michigan Eagles	35.1	19	Boxscore
@ Bowling Green Falcons	64.9	23
Northern Illinois Huskies	56.4	26	Boxscore
@ Western Michigan Broncos	43.6	25
Ohio Bobcats	66.8	27	Boxscore
@ Miami (OH) RedHawks	33.2	21
Toledo Rockets	76.2	30	Boxscore
@ Buffalo Bulls	23.8	19
Colorado Buffaloes	7.9	17	Boxscore
@ Oregon Ducks	92.1	33
Washington State Cougars	42.1	22	Boxscore
@ Stanford Cardinal	57.9	26
UCLA Bruins	47.5	23	Boxscore
@ Arizona State Sun Devils	52.5	24
California Golden Bears	59.4	24	Boxscore
@ Utah Utes	40.6	20
Oregon State Beavers	70.3	26	Boxscore
@ Washington Huskies	29.7	20
USC Trojans	83.2	35	Boxscore
@ Arizona Wildcats	16.8	24
Massachusetts Minutemen	12.9	12	Boxscore
@ Vanderbilt Commodores	87.1	29
Mississippi State Bulldogs	23.8	18	Boxscore
@ Alabama Crimson Tide	76.2	28
Kentucky Wildcats	30.2	15	Boxscore
@ Missouri Tigers	69.8	20
Tennessee Volunteers	45.5	19	Boxscore
@ South Carolina Gamecocks	54.5	21
Mississippi Rebels	46.5	22	Boxscore
@ Arkansas Razorbacks	53.5	25
Florida Gators	51.5	21	Boxscore
vs. Georgia Bulldogs	48.5	19
Texas A&M Aggies	72.8	26	Boxscore
@ Auburn Tigers	27.2	17
Texas State Bobcats	18.8	22	Boxscore
@ San Jose State Spartans	81.2	30
Utah State Aggies	81.2	33	Boxscore
@ Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners	18.8	21
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs	84.2	37	Boxscore
@ New Mexico State Aggies	15.8	21
Ball State Cardinals	66.3	29	Boxscore
@ Army Black Knights	33.7	23
TCU Horned Frogs	28.7	22	Boxscore
@ Oklahoma State Cowboys	71.3	28
Texas Tech Red Raiders	35.1	24	Boxscore
@ Kansas State Wildcats	64.9	28
Baylor Bears	43.6	23	Boxscore
@ Iowa State Cyclones	56.4	24
Notre Dame Fighting Irish	44.1	25	Boxscore
@ Oklahoma Sooners	55.9	27
Texas Longhorns	87.1	31	Boxscore
@ Kansas Jayhawks	12.9	19
Memphis Tigers	25.7	24	Boxscore
@ Southern Methodist Mustangs	74.3	31
UTEP Miners	39.6	24	Boxscore
@ Houston Cougars	60.4	28
Navy Midshipmen	42.6	24	Boxscore
@ East Carolina Pirates	57.4	25
Southern Miss Golden Eagles	47.5	23	Boxscore
@ Rice Owls	52.5	24
UCF Knights	50.5	27	Boxscore
@ Marshall Thundering Herd	49.5	26
UAB Blazers	53.0	25	Boxscore
@ Tulane Green Wave	47.0	24
UNLV Rebels	25.7	20	Boxscore
@ San Diego State Aztecs	74.3	30
Hawaii Warriors	35.1	17	Boxscore
@ Colorado State Rams	64.9	22
Nevada Wolf Pack	64.4	28	Boxscore
@ Air Force Falcons	35.6	23
Fresno State Bulldogs	79.2	31	Boxscore
@ New Mexico Lobos	20.8	20
Boise State Broncos	79.2	30	Boxscore
@ Wyoming Cowboys	20.8	19
South Alabama Jaguars	22.8	18	Boxscore
@ Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks	77.2	28
Arkansas State Red Wolves	42.1	26	Boxscore
@ Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns	57.9	28
North Texas Mean Green	44.1	25	Boxscore
@ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders	55.9	28
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers	61.9	26	Boxscore
@ FIU Golden Panthers	38.1	24
Troy Trojans	73.3	30	Boxscore
@ Florida Atlantic Owls	26.7	21

Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.

Check out our 2012 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Upsets of the Week.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.