NFL Predictions Week 7: Favorites Guaranteed to Cover Spread on Sunday

Coming into Week 7 of the 2012 NFL season, being a favorite has seemingly become a widespread curse for teams. 

Through six weeks, favorites are a shocking 32-58-1 against the spread. That means that oddsmakers are massively overrating certain squads or we have finally reached the hallowed full parity that the NFL desires.

Either way, for prognosticators, this trend is equal parts interesting and incredibly frustrating. It also means that finding a favorite that is actually guaranteed to pull off a victory is more critical than ever for bettors and folks in pick 'em pools.

With that in mind, here are at least a few teams that you can bank on winning Sunday as a favorite.

Green Bay Packers (at St. Louis Rams)

If there was any team that re-established itself among the league's elite at the perfect time, it was Green Bay. With an absolutely dominant performance against the then-undefeated Houston Texans, Aaron Rodgers silenced all the doubters with a career-high six touchdown passes in the Packers' 42-24 victory.

With just a six-point spread separating the teams on Sunday, there is little reason to think the good times won't keep rolling for Green Bay.

Nonetheless, it won't be as easy as most think. According to Football Outsiders' DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) metric, the Rams have the fourth-best pass defense in the NFL, holding opposing quarterbacks to 17.8 fewer yards than a replacement-level squad.

Nonetheless, Rodgers took down a Texans team that was No. 1 in that statistic for nearly the whole season last week. If he's firing on all cylinders, Rodgers, and the Packers' offense as a result, is matchup-proof. 

Barring an unforeseen regression, Green Bay should come out on top pretty handily.

Score Prediction: Packers 28, Rams 17

Buffalo Bills (vs. Tennessee Titans)

By now, we can essentially pencil in the Bills as 2012's team that looks good against bad teams and gets eviscerated against top-tier squads.

Fortunately for bettors, the oddsmakers are yet to notice this glaring trend and have made Sunday's contest a three-point spread—essentially saying the two sides are equal. 

And, as anyone who has watched Tennessee this season knows, that's simply not the case. 

In fact, the Bills will get a cushy matchup against one of the worst defenses in the NFL on Sunday. Ranking 29th against the pass and 23rd against the run, the Titans have no bankable traits on defense, which could mean a huge day for running back C.J. Spiller.

The explosive back, who broke out early in the season, had gone quiet before a resurgent performance in Week 6. If Chan Gailey finally makes the correct call and turns Spiller into an every-down back, the Bills should win this game easily

Score Prediction: Bills 27, Titans 14

Dallas Cowboys (at Carolina Panthers)

Last week's debilitating loss against the Baltimore Ravens will likely serve to make or break the Cowboys' season.

If Dallas folds after such a frustrating loss, it's almost guaranteed that we see a new regime from top-to-bottom next season in Jerryworld.

Head coach Jason Garrett has continually made head-scratching decisions while quarterback Tony Romo is in the midst of his worst professional season. While the former is far more likely than the latter to be run out of town, both are definitely playing for their jobs heading into Week 7. 

Look for both to come out on Sunday and perform like their jobs are on the line. Romo should be able to carve up a weak Panthers secondary, which ranks 23rd in the NFL against the pass thus far.

What's more, the Dallas defense should be in line for yet another strong performance against a struggling Cam Newton. 

Considering this is a minuscule two-point spread, take the Cowboys as they reap the rewards of a disappointing Carolina squad.

Score Prediction: Cowboys 31, Panthers 17

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