NFL Picks Week 7: Best Bets for This Weekend's Action

The most overlooked factor when it comes to picking games at this point in the NFL season, the middle ground between the early jitters and crunch time, is motivation level. Some teams are already playing more important games than others, and it shows.

It's something to keep in mind looking ahead to Week 7. Since there's so much parity throughout the league right now, the winning team is usually the one that imposes its will first. Effort is just as important as talent.

With that in mind, let's take a look at the best options on the board for this weekend, which features limited options due to six teams on bye. All odds are courtesy of VegasInsider.com.

Baltimore Ravens (+6.5 at Houston Texans)

The Texans are still licking their wounds from their first loss of the season to the Green Bay Packers and already have a big lead in the AFC South. It's the perfect recipe for a letdown game, even for a team as good as Houston.

On the flip side, the Ravens have been on an absolute roll as of late. They have rattled off four straight wins, including victories over the Patriots and Cowboys, and still have plenty of room for improvement before they reach their potential.

The best news for Baltimore is that the Packers finally provided a blueprint for putting up points against the stout Texans defense. While Joe Flacco and Co. aren't on the same level as Aaron Rodgers' group, they should at least have a clear plan on how to attack.

Ray Lewis' injury is a major loss in terms of the leadership he provided, but the Ravens defense should have enough depth to fill the void. Dannell Ellerbe has been particularly impressive this season and will likely play a more critical role moving forward.

All told, it's hard not to like Baltimore's chances in this battle of AFC powerhouses. Even if the Texans are able to defend their home-field advantage, the Ravens should have no problem covering the spread in a game that should go right down to the wire.

Dallas Cowboys (-2 at Carolina Panthers)

It seemed like the Cowboys were finally prepared to start the season on the right track after beating the Giants on opening night, but have since lost three of their last four games. In other words, more of what fans have come to expect from Dallas in recent years.

Despite those struggles, the line for a game against a rebuilding Panthers team still seems too low. The Cowboys have enough talent to make a strong push for a playoff spot while Carolina is still a couple seasons away from that.

If they play up to their ability, the Cowboys should win handily thanks to a defense that ranks second in yards allowed and should be able to contain Cam Newton. That's the main, and perhaps only, key to success against the Panthers right now.

On offense, Felix Jones should have no problem filling the short-term void at running back, and Tony Romo has proved throughout his career that he's a much better quarterback than he's shown so far this season. He should have a strong showing this week.

This has all the makings of a two-score victory for the Cowboys. They are going to get things turned around at some point, and this seems like a perfect game to start. Expect a determined effort from Dallas on Sunday.