Projecting the Field of 65 (March 11)

My buddy Brad Wachtel was thrilled when Coach Gary Waters and Cleveland State beat Butler Tuesday night to win the Horizon League tournament and advance to the Big Dance.  That's because Brad worked as a Rutgers manager when Waters coached the Scarlet Knights.

Not as excited were the bubble teams which now lose one more at-large spot to Butler, who they were hoping would just capture the Horizon automatic bid.

For me, that means South Carolina gets bumped from my last team in to my first team out, but don't fret, Gamecocks fans, your team still has a chance to play its way back into the field when the SEC tournament kicks off later this week. 

The two teams that really should be scared are Creighton and Saint Mary's, which have no real chance to improve their resumes.

My last four in are: New Mexico, Creighton, St. Mary’s, San Diego State

My first four out are: South Carolina, Florida, UNLV, Virginia Tech

But Cleveland State wasn't the only team to clinch an automatic bid Tuesday.  Congratulations must also go out to Western Kentucky (Sun Belt) and North Dakota State (Summit), who will also be dancing.

Don’t forget to check out the latest Schwach Indicator rankings to see how this new evaluation tool is affecting my projections.

I usually like to break teams down into three categories. "Wallflowers" are bubble teams. Everyone wants to get into the Big Dance, but not all have the guts to ask a girl out onto the dance floor.

Elite teams are safely in the field, "Dancing with a hottie," and in the middle are the schools that are "Dancing with their sister."

But the sisters are all gone now. There’s no gray area anymore. You’re either in or you’re a Wallflower in need of a win or two this week to secure a bid.

ACC

Dancing with a hottie: North Carolina (1 seed), Duke (2), Wake Forest (3), Florida State (4), Clemson (5)

Wallflowers: Boston College (10), Virginia Tech (fourth out), Maryland (seventh out), Miami (fourteenth out)

BC could’ve locked up a spot if they had just won at NC State last Wednesday, but a loss there dropped the Eagles’ computer numbers (RPI 58, SOS 58), so they might need to beat Virginia in the first round of the ACC tournament to feel completely safe come Sunday.

Va Tech probably needed only one win against Duke, UNC, or FSU, but the Hokies went 0-3 down the stretch to finish league play at 7-9. With triumphs over BC, Wake, and Clemson, they still have a shot, but they must beat Miami Thursday.

A victory over Carolina in the quarters might be needed as well, depending on how the other Wallflowers fare this week.

Maryland really damaged its chances by losing at Virginia last weekend. The Terps have better non-conference wins than Virginia Tech (Michigan State, Michigan), but their only big ACC victory was by three at home against North Carolina and that’s why Maryland will most likely have to beat both NC State and Wake Forest to reach the Dance.

Miami also blew its chance to finish with a .500 record in the ACC when the Hurricanes fell at Georgia Tech.

The 8/9 game against VT is an elimination contest and with just a 2-8 record versus the RPI top 50, Miami will definitely have to beat UNC as well and possibly advance to the finals.

Big East

Dancing with a hottie: Pittsburgh (1), Connecticut (1), Louisville (2), Villanova (4), Syracuse (5), Marquette (6), West Virginia (7)

Wallflowers: Providence (11th out), Notre Dame (17th out)

Forget the NCAA tournament, Cincinnati and Georgetown may have damaged their NIT chances with losses to DePaul and St. John's, respectively, Tuesday afternoon.  You can scratch those two teams off the Wallflower list.

When I got down to my final four at-large spots, I had 14 teams vying for a bid. I took those bubbles and compared them using statistical information such as overall record, conference record, RPI, SOS, record versus the top 50 and 100, road/neutral record and wins in their last 10 games. 

When I crunched the numbers, I found that Providence was last among that group.  The win over Syracuse is nice and the victory over Pitt is enormous, but that’s not enough. 

With a 2-7 record against the top 50 and an RPI of 72, the Friars must beat DePaul on Wednesday and Louisville on Thursday.  DePaul's win over Cincinnati actually hurt the Friars a little because a win over the 16 seed isn't as impressive as going 3-0 against the Bearcats.

Big Ten

Dancing with a hottie: Michigan State (1), Illinois (4), Purdue (5), Ohio State (9)

Wallflowers: Wisconsin (10), Minnesota (10), Michigan (10), Penn State (fifth out), Northwestern (eighth out)

The Big Ten tournament will have the biggest impact on the bubble picture. With six teams vying for only four or five spots, it could get ugly. Even uglier than regular Big Ten basketball.

Despite being the higher seed in Friday’s 4/5 game, Wisconsin needs the win more.  Ohio State is safe with a 9-9 record versus the top 100 and its worst loss coming at No. 70 Northwestern. 

The Badgers, meanwhile, were just 4-9 against the top 50 and lost to No. 112 Iowa.  In the end, however, with each team finishing conference play at 10-8, they should both make the Dance.

The 8/9 matchup between Minnesota and Northwestern is an elimination game. The Gophers are definitely in better shape with a 9-9 league mark, eight top-100 wins and an RPI of 41. They wouldn’t have to beat Michigan State in the quarters.

The Wildcats would have to take down Sparty because they missed a golden opportunity to finish .500 in Big Ten play when they lost by five at Ohio State Sunday. 

With a 6-10 record versus the top 100 and an RPI of 70, Northwestern needs at least two wins to get in.

Michigan’s win at Minnesota on Saturday was huge. The Wolverines swept the Gophers to finish 9-9 in conference. That combined with out-of-league triumphs over UCLA and Duke means Michigan only has to beat Iowa to go dancing.

Penn State is an interesting case. The Nittany Lions were in after they beat Illinois but then out again after they lost to the Hawkeyes. 

A 10-8 record in the Big Ten is good, as are six wins against the top 50, but a non-conference slate that included eight games against sub 200 teams has put a crimp in the Lions’ computer numbers (RPI 64, SOS 82). 

A win over Indiana Thursday is a must, but they may also need to beat Purdue in the quarterfinals.

Big XII

Dancing with a hottie: Oklahoma (2), Kansas (2), Missouri (3), Texas (8)

Wallflowers: Texas A&M (8), Oklahoma State (9), Kansas State (ninth out)

I replaced Oklahoma on the top line with Michigan State. The Spartans’ 12-2 record against the top 50 is the best in the country and the Sooners are slipping, losing three of five.

Oklahoma State and Texas A&M are both in pretty good shape after finishing 9-7.  First round wins over Iowa State and Texas Tech, respectively, should punch their tickets.

While Kansas State is seeded higher than both of those schools in the Big XII tournament, the Wildcats are lower in my pecking order thanks to an RPI of 75 and the 98th strength of schedule. 

They have to hope Texas beats Colorado because they need to beat the Longhorns to improve their resume. KSU may also have to upend Kansas.

Pac-10

Dancing with a hottie: Washington (3), Arizona State (5), UCLA (6), California (8)

Wallflowers: Arizona (9), USC (10th out), Washington State (12th out)

Arizona picked up an important win over Stanford to break a four-game slide and finish 9-9 in conference.  But with an RPI of 53 and losses to fellow Wallflowers Texas A&M and UNLV, the Wildcats may have to beat Arizona State in the Pac-10’s 4/5 contest.

USC finished strong by sweeping the Oregon schools at home to get to .500 in the league, but with a 2-8 mark against the top 50, the Trojans will have to reach the title game to have a shot at an at-large.

Washington State couldn’t cap off its magical end-of-the-year run with a win at Washington, but the Cougars are still playing well, having defeated UCLA, Arizona and Arizona State in the past three weeks.

Win three games to get to the finals and they’ll be in the conversation.

SEC

Dancing with a hottie: LSU (7), Tennessee (8)

Wallflowers: South Carolina (first out), Florida (second out), Auburn (sixth out), Kentucky (13th out)

With Cleveland State's victory, South Carolina is now my first team out.  Despite a 10-6 conference mark, the Gamecocks have just one top 50 win (over No. 48 Florida). USC can’t afford a slip-up in the SEC quarters against Mississippi State or Georgia. 

The Gamecocks will probably also need to beat LSU in the semis now.

Florida kept its head above water by beating Kentucky on Saturday, but a 2-6 mark against the top 50 means the Gators have a lot more work to do. First, they must beat Arkansas.

Then, they play an elimination game against surging Auburn, which has won four straight, including a victory over LSU.

Kentucky’s four-game losing streak has the Wildcats in need of at least a finals appearance to make the Big Dance. In fact, with an RPI of 78, they may need to win the whole thing.

Mid-Majors

Dancing with a hottie: Memphis (3), Xavier (4), Utah (6), BYU (6), Dayton (7), Gonzaga (7), Butler (9)

Wallflowers: Creighton (11), New Mexico (11), Saint Mary’s (11), San Diego State (11), Utah State (12), UNLV (third out), Temple (15th out), Rhode Island (16th out)

Butler may have dropped a line with its loss Tuesday, but the Bulldogs remain safely in the field thanks to their strong 24 RPI and 12-3 record versus the top 100.  They own wins over Xavier, Northwestern, UAB and Davidson, not to mention two over Cleveland State.

Saint Mary’s did not do itself any favors losing by 25 to Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference final Monday night. Even with Patty Mills in the lineup, the Gaels were completely blown out and will now become the most talked about bubble until Sunday.

I still have them in thanks to wins over fellow Wallflowers San Diego State, Utah State, and Providence, but their hold on one of the final spots is very precarious.

The problem is for those wins to look better, Saint Mary’s needs those teams to win some games this week, but if they do that, they may take the Gael’s spot.

There’s no question Saint Mary’s needs Utah State to win the WAC. Not only would that make the Gaels’ win look that much better, but it would prevent the Aggies from possibly stealing an at-large.

In the meantime, the team from the WCC will be rooting hard against Florida, Va Tech, Penn State and every other bubble.

With Davidson losing to Charleston in the Southern Conference semis, there is absolutely no way Stephen Curry and the Wildcats deserve an at-large bid. They have one win over the top 100.

Creighton, on the other hand, still has a chance to make the field, despite an early exit from the Missouri Valley tournament. When comparing the final 14 teams I had vying for the last four spots, the Bluejays had the best numbers. 

They have an RPI of 39, an 11-5 record away from home, a 2-2 mark against the top 50 and 10-5 versus the top 100, and they won 11 of their final 12. Creighton also beat New Mexico and Dayton, which both appear to be heading to the NCAA tournament.

I currently have San Diego State in and UNLV out thanks to the Aztecs’ sweep of the Rebels, but that could change when the two schools battle it out a third time in an elimination game Thursday. 

Despite good non-conference wins over Louisville and Arizona, UNLV may need to win a couple of games in the Mountain West tournament because it’s playing at home and it needs to offset terrible losses at TCU and Colorado State.

My brief love affair with Rhode Island ended when the Rams lost at home to No. 146 UMass on Saturday. URI and Temple each need to make the A-10 final to have any shot at an at-large.

Automatic Bids

12 seeds: Siena, Western Kentucky, Cleveland State

13 seeds: Northern Iowa, VCU, American, Stephen F. Austin

14 seeds: Portland State, Binghamton, North Dakota State, Buffalo

15 seeds: Robert Morris, Cornell, East Tennessee State, Morgan State

16 seeds: Radford, Morehead State, Cal State Northridge, Chattanooga, Alabama State

Jordan Schwartz is Bleacher Report's New York Yankees Community Leader. His book "Memoirs of the Unaccomplished Man"is available at amazon.com, barnesandnoble.com, and authorhouse.com.

Jordan can be reached at [e-mail]