Crosby Beats Ovechkin By the Projected Numbers

Ovechkin said he would "probably" play Sunday against Sidney Crosby and the visiting Pittsburgh Penguins. He missed a game and the Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Washington Capitals 2-1. After missing four games because of a groin injury, Crosby had a goal in his return to the lineup to help Pittsburgh beat the Florida Panthers.

Ovechkin still leads the NHL in goals scored this year, with 46, while Crosby is 30th with 24. Ovechkin is second in points, with 83 and Crosby is right behind him in third spot with 80.

Evgeni Malkin leads the league in points, with 94—including 29 goals, which is good for 10th place.

Crosby and Ovechkin were recently compared by Alan Ryder, the CEO of the Aurigen Reinsurance Company, in an article published in The Globe and Mail.

His statistics and projections indicate that Crosby will outdo Ovechkin and have a career that will place him second only to Wayne Gretzky in total points and assists. Ovechkin is projected to score more goals.

Ovechkin won the Calder Trophy as the NHL's top rookie in 2006. Crosby won the Art Ross and Hart Trophies in 2007. But Ovechkin won the Ross, Hart, and Richard trophies in 2008.

Ryder looked for and found a group of similar players and studied their performance over time, looking at age of entry into the NHL, experience, and playing time.

The comparison group was comprised of players who, like Crosby, were well established at an elite level of competition prior to the age of 20. That is a very small group of players.

Ovechkin was 20 years old when he entered the NHL but he lost a year to the lockout.
The comparison group included Gretzky, Mark Messier, Steve Yzerman, Mario Lemieux, Jaromir Jagr, and a dozen others. This group averaged 568 goals, 851 assists, and 1,419 points in 1,244 games played.

Ovechkin projects out at over 700 career goals, for a career much like that of Brett Hull (741 goals in 1,269 games).

The projections look a bit better for Crosby. The model is forecasting a a career that would place him second only to Gretzky in assists and points.

For a lot of statistics, check out the article.