Bubble Watch March 6

NCAA 2009 Bubble Watch

Chris’ anticipated Bubble Watch is back!!  Last year, Chris predicted 64 of the 65 teams on Selection Sunday, only having Villanova out and Arizona State in. He also predicted 26 seeds exactly and another 30 teams within one line of their actual seed. That’s 56 of the 65 teams in the 2008 tournament!! 

His Bubble Watch incorporates if the season ended today. The next update will be on Sunday, March 8.

ACC (7)

Lock: North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Florida State, Clemson

Good Shape: BC, Maryland

Need Help: Virginia Tech

With the bubble so weak, Maryland is in the tournament as of today. They cannot afford to lose at Virginia to close the regular season.  VT needs a win at Florida State to keep hope alive.

Big East (7)

Lock: Pitt, UConn, Villanova, Marquette, Louisville, West Virginia, Syracuse

Need Help: Providence

The win against Pitt helped, but the Friars probably need two more wins to feel secure about their chances.

Big Ten (7)

Lock: Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois

Good Shape: Wisconsin, Ohio State, Penn State, Minnesota

Need Help: Michigan, Northwestern

Both UM and Northwestern need to win this weekend or go to the finals of the Big Ten tournament to secure a bid.

Big 12 (6)

Lock: Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, Missouri

Good Shape: Oklahoma State, Texas A&M

The Big 12 seems secure on six bids. A&M can lock up a bid by beating Missouri on Saturday.

Pac 10 (5)

Lock: UCLA, Arizona State, Washington, California

Good Shape: Arizona

As long as Arizona doesn’t lose to Stanford and then in the first round of the Pac 10 tournament, they Pac 10 should send five to the big dance.

SEC (3)

Lock: LSU, Tennessee

Good Shape: South Carolina

Need Help: Florida, Kentucky

The loser of the Florida/Kentucky game is essentially sent to the NIT, with the winner still having to make a run in the conference tourney to get an at-large berth.

Mountain West (3)

Lock: Utah, BYU

Good Shape: UNLV

Need Help: San Diego State, New Mexico

San Diego State can improve its chances by defeating UNLV this weekend. The conference tournament should help decide how many teams represent the MWC in the NCAA Tournament (few as two, as many as five).

A-10 (3)

Lock: Xavier

Good Shape: Dayton, Rhode Island

Dayton should still be in good shape. If Rhode Island makes it to the semis and loses a close one to the Flyers, the Rams might also be on the right side of the bubble come Selection Sunday.

WCC (2)

Lock: Gonzaga

Good Shape: St. Mary’s

Patty Mills is back and a trip to the finals of the WCC tournament should lock up a bid for St Mary’s.

There are 22 one-bid leagues, nine conferences that will receive multiple bids and 34 at-large berths. The teams listed in Lock or Good Shape status are considered in the tournament. 

Last four in: Maryland, Minnesota, Rhode Island, UNLV.

First six out: Virginia Tech, Providence, New Mexico, San Diego State, Michigan, Florida.