Patriots vs. Bills: Spread Info, Line and Predictions

Justin Welton@JustinWeltonAnalyst IISeptember 28, 2012

BALTIMORE, MD - SEPTEMBER 23: Quarterback Tom Brady #12 of the New England Patriots looks on during a timeout against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium on September 23, 2012 in Baltimore, Maryland.  (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
Rob Carr/Getty Images

The NFL is a wild and wacky game. Anything can happen on a game-by-game basis, and we have seen a firsthand example of that in the early stages of the 2012 season.

Fans, coaches and players couldn't of imagined that Buffalo would enter Week 4's game with New England with a better record, but they have.

The Patriots are 1-2 and are on the verge of losing three straight games. New England, Green Bay and Pittsburgh are all prime examples of just how wild the first three weeks has been. 

Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for this Sunday's game:

Where: Ralph Wilson Stadium, Orchard Park, N.Y.

When: Sunday, Sept. 30 at 1 p.m. ET

Watch: CBS

Live Stream: NFL Sunday Ticket

Spread: Patriots -4.5 (via Bovada)

Depending on injuries, taking the Patriots with the points is the smart way to go. We don't often see Patriots' teams lose two in a row, and I'm pretty sure they won't lose three in a row.

Expect a motivated bunch with a huge chip on their shoulder. 

Over/Under: 51 (via Bovada)

Fifty-one points is a lot to ask for in an NFL game despite teams wanting to pass all day to put points on the board. However, both teams don't have great defenses, and both have been gashed this year, at times, so don't be surprised if you see this game closer to 60 points. 

Injury Report (via CBS Sports)


DE Brandon Deaderick: Ankle, Questionable

CB Alfonzo Dennard: Hamstring, Questionable

WR Julian Edelman: Hand, Questionable

DE Justin Francis: Ankle, Questionable

TE Aaron Hernandez: Ankle, Questionable

DT Kyle Love: Knee, Questionable

S Sterling Moore: Knee, Questionable

RB Shane Vereen: Foot, Questionable


RB Fred Jackson: Knee, Questionable

WR Ruvell Martin: Ankle, Questionable

CB Leodis McKelvin: Groin, Questionable

RB C.J. Spiller: Shoulder, Questionable

Fantasy Big Plays

Patriots: Rob Gronkowski, TE

Rob Gronkowski hasn't seemed to play his best football in the early stages of the season, yet he still has scored twice in his first three games.

Against a porous Bills defense and a motivated Tom Brady, expect Gronkowski's catch total, yards and touchdowns to be the best for any tight end in Week 4.

Steve Johnson, WR

With Spiller potentially on the sidelines, the burden will be placed squarely on the shoulders of quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. If Buffalo stands a chance of defeating New England, Fitzpatrick will need to be sharp.

Steve Johnson then becomes the biggest beneficiary. Johnson has caught 13 passes for 172 yards and three touchdowns on the season, and he should be targeted in double figures Sunday. 

Key to Patriots Victory: Stopping Buffalo's offense

New England has allowed 51 points in its past two games, and both times they ended up on the wrong side of the win/loss column. 

Brady should be able to have his way with Buffalo's defense, but this game will come down to stopping the Bills offense even if Spiller is unavailable to play. 

It was New England's Achilles' Heel last year, and we are seeing glimpses of it again.  

Key to Bills Victory: Ryan Fitzpatrick's lack of mistakes

Fitzpatrick has had a taste of the turnover bug in the past, but when he's on, he's on. In 2011, Fitzpatrick tossed 24 touchdowns compared to 23 interceptions, a rate that landed Buffalo on the outside looking into the postseason.

This year, after three games, Fitzpatrick has shown glimpses of brilliance and glimpses of his 2011 season. Against the Jets, Fitzpatrick passed for three touchdowns but tossed three picks. The Bills were demolished 48-28.

In Week 2 and 3 Fitzpatrick looked completely different, tossing five combined touchdowns to zero interceptions. This is the Fitzpatrick Buffalo needs to see on Sunday.

Against a shaky pass defense, and Brady coming off consecutive losses, Fitzpatrick needs to bring his A-game to stay in this potential shootout. 


Although the NFL is wacky and anything can happen, it would be hard to believe New England would lose three straight games. You have to go with the road favorite in this one. 

New England 41, Buffalo 27. 


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