NCAA Basketball Picks: Eastern Kentucky vs. Morehead State: March 3rd 2009

NCAA Basketball Pick: Eastern Kentucky +3.0 (-110)
Tue Mar 3 ‘09 7:30p
The Morehead State Eagle earned home court advantage tonight by finishing two games ahead of the Eastern Kentucky Colonels in conference play, but we still feel that the Colonels are the superior team and that they will prove it by winning on the road to advance in the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament.

Eastern Kentucky finished just 10-8 in the conference, although they were a nice 18-12 overall. However, they did finish the regular season by going 7-3 straight up in their last 10 games, and they were also a nice 13-10-1 against the spread for the entire season. Most importantly however, we feel it is offensive efficiency that sets these teams apart.

According to the Pomeroy ratings, the Colonels average 1.100 points per possession after adjusting for their schedule, ranking them 55 in the entire country in offensive efficiency. Conversely, Morehead State has an adjusted PPP of just .994, ranking them a poor 207 in that important category.

It also hurts that the Eagles stumbled down the stretch, losing their last four games to finish at just 16-15 overall despite their 12-6 conference mark. Sure, all four of those games were on the road, but even in their last home game, they failed to cover the number vs. a SE Missouri State team that is one of the worst on the conference.

Now Morehead State did cover both regular season meetings, but both of those took place before the late-season swoon by the Eagles, and we look for Eastern Kentucky to turn the tables on them when it matters most here.

CBB Free Pick: Eastern Kentucky +3 (-110) - Courtesy of LT Profits