Running Towards the Roses: School's In

Entering this past Saturday, it had been a frustrating three weekends for this derby watcher. Since an impressive performance by Denis of Cork in the Southwest Stakes on February 15th, it seemed like the derby prep races since offered very little in helping me with my predictions.

1. February 24th: Cool Coal Man runs an impressive race in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, but the field he beat was questionable.
   
2. March 1st: Against a small field in the Sham Stakes, neither Colonel John (first) nor El Gato Malo (second) distinguish themselves as the horse to beat in the Santa Anita Derby.
3. March 8th: In the Louisiana Derby, Pyro ran the same race he ran in the Risen Star Stakes one month earlier. Guess what? He won again. Visionaire, who was third in the Risen Star Stakes, won the Gotham Stakes. But that race tells us nothing. Trust me on this, or just watch the race. And to top everything, a promising duo of Southern California invaders didn't hit the board in the El Camino Real Derby. Even worse, the El Camino Real Derby was won by 62-1 Autism Awareness who was promptly declared off the derby trail, if he was ever on it to begin with.

Heading into the Tampa Bay Derby, it's not surprising that I was ready for more of the same. It's not like War Pass wasn't going to win. Bet down to 1/20 at post time, this race seemed more like just another regal step on the path to thoroughbred coronation.

But everything changed when War Pass was sandwiched between horses on the break. He never seemed to really recover from that, and when he was wide and not gaining after the half pole, it was evident that he wasn't going to win.

I don't want to take anything away from the winner, Big Truck who also finished second in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, but all this race showed me was that War Pass isn't a super-horse that can outrun any field like he had done in previous starts. With that said, I'm not going to overreact to his last place finish, but hopefully some others will.

The San Felipe Stakes was billed as a two-turn proving ground for three impressive Southern California colts: Bob Black Jack, Gayego, and Georgie Boy. All it proved to me was that Georgie Boy is worthy of my attention. 

Boxed in on the final turn of a slow moving race, Gorgie Boy was forced to fan wide to find a lane before making a thrilling stretch run to pass front runners Bob Black Jack and Gayego. Georgie Boy was absolutely flying as he crossed the finish, and I think his style will prove to be even more beneficial in a faster race.

It definitely sets up the possibility of an exciting Santa Anita Derby with Colonel John, El Gato Malo, and Georgie Boy all promising Kentucky Derby contenders.

Good trip aside, Sierra Sunset won the Rebel Stakes in impressive fashion. Combined with his second place finish to Denis of Cork in the Southwest Stakes a month earlier, Sierra Sunset is building an impressive derby resume. He could solidify his claim as a contender by winning the Arkansas Derby.

The question looming over Sierra Sunset will be the quality of racing company in Arkansas. Keep in mind this didn't hurt Curlin, Afleet Alex, or Smarty Jones—all of whom entered the Triple Crown series surrounded by the same question.

One telling note about how good Sierra Sunset could be is that the connections for Southwest Stakes winner Denis of Cork took the undefeated colt off the Arkansas prep trail and have mentioned the Wood Memorial or Illinois Derby as a possible final prep.

Et cetera: Georgie Boy's jockey wears the cardinal and gold silks of owner-breeder George Schwary, which are USC inspired and include a trojan head on the back. 

Kentucky Derby Top Ten Contenders (as of March 16th):

1. Pyro
2. War Pass
3. Sierra Sunset
4. Georgie Boy
5. El Gato Malo
6. Colonel John
7. Cool Coal Man
8. Denis of Cork
9. Big Truck
10. Visionaire