2012 Fantasy Football: The Actual Top 100 Picks
There is a lot of preparation that goes into fantasy football drafts. Some use personal knowledge and players from favorite teams, some buy magazines, and other utilize the list created by the website their league is associated with. Regardless, a lot of faith is placed on these resources, which sometimes can be outdated and not include important injury updates.
As the draft season began, I had an idea about draft order. No one actually drafts in the order of said magazines or websites. People draft with experts and novices, based on past knowledge or team favoritism, go with auto-pick, or see one WR draft from a team and immediately draft the WR2 from the same team (Dez Bryant and Miles Austin, Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker). I drafted in two leagues with people I knew, drafted three more in free leagues, and one in a Yahoo! Pro league with strangers. These drafts are based on normal fantasy point systems and 10 team leagues.
The following are the results of comparing the picks from all six leagues. The remaining results are the overall top 100 actual picks the average fantasy user makes, not what you typically read in fantasy draft preparations.
Pick 1: Arian Foster, Houston Texans RB
1 of 28Average Pick: 1.83
Highest Pick: 1st
Lowest Pick: 3rd
Yahoo Rank: 1st
Foster's pick was consistent with the field. I have a feeling that the RB would put together another spectacular season in 2012.
Pick 2: Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens RB
2 of 28Average Pick: 2.83
Highest Pick: 1st
Lowest Pick: 5th
Yahoo Rank: 2nd
Again, Rice's pick was consistent with Yahoo's draft order. While a lot of talk this year is focused on the quarterback, drafters find it hard to stay away with running backs in the first round.
Pick 3: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers QB
3 of 28Average Pick: 3.83
Highest Pick: 1st
Lowest Pick: 5th
Yahoo Rank: 5th
Aaron Rodgers was no doubt going to be the first quarterback off the board, and the average drafter took him two spots above the Yahoo rankings.
Pick 4: LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles, RB
4 of 28Average Pick: 4.67
Highest Pick: 2nd
Lowest Pick: 7th
Yahoo Rank: 3rd
McCoy fell a spot based on Yahoo rankings, which is quite surprising. McCoy is in an offense with an oft-injured QB Michael Vick, so you would have imagine the Eagles would be dependent on the running game.
Pick 5: Tom Brady, New England Patriots QB
5 of 28Average Pick: 5.67
Highest Pick: 3rd
Lowest Pick: 7th
Yahoo Rank: 7th
This is where we start to see the influence of the "year of the quarterback" in this year's drafts. Brady was drafted as high as four spots above Yahoo's rankings. It also helped his cause that his receiving options this year make the Patriots an unstoppable force.
Pick 6: Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions WR
6 of 28Average Pick: 7.5
Highest Pick: 4th
Lowest Pick: 9th
Yahoo Rank: 4th
It does make sense that Megatron is ranked fourth on Yahoo's draft list. It doesn't make sense that he actually would be drafted fourth in most leagues. There is a large pool of quality receivers to choose from in this year's draft, and limited great quarterbacks and running backs to choose from. Regardless, Johnson should put up great numbers for any fantasy team this year.
Pick 7: Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints QB
7 of 28Average Pick: 7.67
Highest Pick: 4th
Lowest Pick: 9th
Yahoo Rank: 4th
Drew Brees is one of five quarterbacks taken within the first 20 picks of most fantasy football drafts, a dramatic swing from the days when running backs had a near monopoly on the top tier of picks.
Pick 8: Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans RB
8 of 28Average Pick: 10.83
Highest Pick: 8th
Lowest Pick: 12th
Yahoo Rank: 8th
There is a lot of mystery surrounding Johnson and if he can become the elite running back he once was. Obviously both online rankings and actual draft results show that Johnson is still worthy of a first-round pick
Pick 9: Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions QB
9 of 28Average Pick: 15.83
Highest Pick: 8th
Lowest Pick: 21st
Yahoo Rank: 16th
Stafford marks the fourth quarterback ranking in the top 10 picks, coming off his only season he was healthy enough to play in every game.
Pick 10: Larry Fitzgerald, WR
10 of 28Average Pick: 16
Highest Pick: 8th
Lowest Pick: 22nd
Yahoo Rank: 12th
Play the blame game on why Fitzgerald's average pick was four spots lower than the Yahoo ranking. It's the quarterback issues in Arizona, and a lack of confidence drafters have in their lead receiver because of this.
Pick 11: Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots TE
11 of 28Average Pick: 16.67
Highest Pick: 12th
Lowest Pick: 20th
Yahoo Rank: 13th
The season Gronk put together in 2011 was simply amazing, and won't happen again in 2012. People will draft him far too high for an receiving corp as deep as the Patriots. Look for Gronk's and Aaron Hernandez's stats to balance out a little in 2012.
Pick 12: Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars RB
12 of 28Average Pick: 17
Highest Pick: 6th
Lowest Pick: 32nd
Yahoo Rank: 24th
Even with Jones-Drew's holdout and missing all of training camp, drafters were still confident enough to take him as high as the sixth overall pick. Team owners will suffer in Week 1 with Rashad Jennings starting, but that obviously won't last past the season opener.
Pick 13: Matt Forte, Chicago Bears RB
13 of 28Average Pick: 17.33
Highest Pick: 9th
Lowest Pick: 21st
Yahoo Rank: 10th
Forte's average draft was much lower than Yahoo's rankings. This is most likely due to the Bears adding Michael Bush to the Bears backfield, set to steal goal-line scores and a decent chunk of yardage.
Pick 14: Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks RB
14 of 28Average Pick: 20.17
Highest Pick: 11th
Lowest Pick: 24th
Yahoo Rank: 14th
Injury concerns and personal issues caused Lynch's draft stock to fall. Add to that Russell Wilson, who will steal carries from Lynch if he remains the starting QB in Seattle.
Pick 15 (Tie): Jimmy Graham, New Orleans Saints TE
15 of 28Average Pick: 20.33
Highest Pick: 9th
Lowest Pick: 27th
Yahoo Rank: 11th
Graham's stock dropped due to the well-known issues in New Orleans. Graham should be considered undervalued given how much higher Gronk was drafted than him.
Pick 15 (Tie): Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders RB
16 of 28Average Pick: 20.33
Highest Pick: 6th
Lowest Pick: 28th
Yahoo Rank: 6th
Health concerns explain McFadden's sharp drop in stock value going into 2012. A lot of drafters are not ready to take a gamble in the first two rounds on a player so often injured.
Pick 17: Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers QB
17 of 28Average Pick: 22.33
Highest Pick: 10th
Lowest Pick: 27th
Yahoo Rank: 18th
Cam Newton is a risky pick, coming off of a stellar rookie campaign in 2011. One has to worry if he will hit a sophomore slump, which could occur as defenses will be prepared for him to run the ball in 2012.
Pick 18: Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings RB
18 of 28Average Pick: 23.5
Highest Pick: 12th
Lowest Pick: 29th
Yahoo Rank: 31st
Peterson was ranked as the second player to pick in 2011 drafts. Injury has great influence on draft order, especially if you are questionable for the start of the season (and had to practice for a period without being touched). Peterson has now fallen to a low second round/high third round pick. If he regains his prior form, he will be a steal at this pick.
Pick 19: DeMarco Murray, Dallas Cowboys RB
19 of 28Average Pick: 24.67
Highest Pick: 12th
Lowest Pick: 35th
Yahoo Rank: 19th
The Cowboys seemed to find their solution at running back with DeMarco Murray. Then Murray had to go and injure himself at the end of the season, which leads to weary fantasy owners in 2012. Murray is now picked on average in the third round, but he is young and should bounce back nicely this season.
Picks 21-30 (Round 3)
21 of 28Pick 21: Andre Johnson, Houston Texans WR. High (9) Low (39) Yahoo (27)
Pick 22: Greg Jennings, Green Bay WR. High (13) Low (33) Yahoo (29)
Pick 23: Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons WR. High (10) Low (32) Yahoo (20)
Pick 24: Wes Welker, New England Patriots WR. High (15) Low (34) Yahoo (34)
Pick 25: Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs RB. High (15) Low (32) Yahoo (17)
Pick 26: AJ Green, Cincinnati Bengals WR. High (19) Low (33) Yahoo (15)
Pick 27: Victor Cruz, New York Giants WR. High (16) Low (31) Yahoo (21)
Pick 28: Ryan Mathews, San Diego Chargers RB. High (10) Low (37) Yahoo (22)
Pick 29: Hakeem Nicks, New York Giants WR. High (19) Low (36) Yahoo (32)
Pick 30: Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams RB. High (22) Low (43) Yahoo (28)
Picks 31-40 (Round 4)
22 of 28Pick 31: Fred Jackson, Buffalo Bills RB. High (25) Low (38) Yahoo (36)
Pick 32: Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons RB. High (24) Low (39) Yahoo (46)
Pick 33: Brandon Marshall, Chicago Bears WR. High (26) Low (40) Yahoo (25)
Pick 34: Eli Manning, New York Giants QB. High (22) Low (56) Yahoo (52)
Pick 35: Mike Wallace, Pittsburgh Steelers WR. High (21) Low (42) Yahoo (37)
Pick 36: Trent Richardson, Cleveland Browns RB. High (26) Low (43) Yahoo (26)
Pick 37: Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers WR. High (30) Low (40) Yahoo (30)
Pick 38: Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles QB. High (15) Low (58) Yahoo (50)
Pick 39: Darren Sproles, New Orleans Saints RB. High (19) Low (50) Yahoo (48)
Pick 40: Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints WR. High (38) Low (47) Yahoo (39)
Picks 41-50 (Round 5)
23 of 28Pick 41: Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos QB. High (13) Low (68) Yahoo (64)
Pick 42: Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers WR. High (38) Low (51) Yahoo (35)
Pick 43: Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers RB. High (37) Low (67) Yahoo (57)
Pick 44: Ahmad Bradshaw, New York Giants RB. High (43) Low (52) Yahoo (47)
Pick 45: Brandon Lloyd, New England Patriots WR. High (37) Low (67) Yahoo (42)
Pick 46: Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys WR. High (43) Low (63) Yahoo (53)
Pick 47: Miles Austin, Dallas Cowboys WR. High (44) Low (55) Yahoo (45)
Pick 48: Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers TE. High (42) Low (58) Yahoo (49)
Pick 49: Percy Harvin, Minnesota Vikings WR. High (40) Low (66) Yahoo (33)
Pick 50: Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB. High (34) Low (63) Yahoo (40)
Picks 51-60 (Round 6)
24 of 28Pick 51: Aaron Hernandez, New England Patriots TE. High (37) Low (66) Yahoo (54)
Pick 52: Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons QB. High (31) Low (78) Yahoo (41)
Pick 53: Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers TE. High (39) Low (63) Yahoo (55)
Pick 54: Reggie Bush, Miami Dolphins RB. High (45) Low (65) Yahoo (43)
Pick 55: Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia Eagles WR. High (42) Low (71) Yahoo (38)
Pick 56: Eric Decker, Denver Broncos WR. High (41) Low (71) Yahoo (51)
Pick 57: Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers WR. High (45) Low (73) Yahoo (44)
Pick 58: Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys QB. High (30) Low (80) Yahoo (60)
Pick 59: Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs WR. High (49) Low (65) Yahoo (59)
Pick 60: Willis McGahee, Denver Broncos RB. High (41) Low (86) Yahoo (63)
Picks 61-70 (Round 7)
25 of 28Pick 61: BenJarvis Green-Ellis, Cincinnati Bengals RB. High (44) Low (76) Yahoo (73)
Pick 62: Jermichael Finley, Green Bay Packers TE. High (53) Low (75) Yahoo (65)
Pick 63: Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos WR. High (54) Low (75) Yahoo (58)
Pick 64: Steve Johnson, Buffalo Bills WR. High (48) Low (76) Yahoo (56)
Pick 65: Vincent Jackson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR. High (58) Low (75) Yahoo (67)
Pick 66: DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia Eagles WR. High (59) Low (84) Yahoo (69)
Pick 67: Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers QB. High (37) Low (109) Yahoo (66)
Pick 68: Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers QB. High (19) Low (124) Yahoo (76)
Pick 69: San Francisco 49ers Defense/Special Teams. High (41) Low (108) Yahoo (142)
Pick 70: Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers RB. High (53) Low (130) Yahoo (61)
Picks 71-80 (Round 8)
26 of 28Pick 71: Shonn Greene, New York Jets RB. High (51) Low (106) Yahoo (72)
Pick 72: Fred Davis, Washington Redskins TE. High (58) Low (101) Yahoo (68)
Pick 73: Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta Falcons TE. High (59) Low (99) Yahoo (105)
Pick 74: Steven Ridley, New England Patriots RB. High (48) Low (153) Yahoo (79)
Pick 75: Pierre Garcon, Washington Redskins WR. High (57) Low (96) Yahoo (70)
Pick 76: Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts WR. High (55) Low (119) Yahoo (83)
Pick 77: Peyton Hillis, Kansas City Chiefs RB: High (67) Low (94) Yahoo (62)
Pick 78: Torrey Smith, Baltimore Ravens WR. High (69) Low (110) Yahoo (77)
Pick 79: Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit Lions TE. High (66) Low (109) Yahoo (92)
Pick 80: Ben Tate, Houston Texans RB. High (30) Low (111) Yahoo (91)
Picks 81-90 (Round 9)
27 of 28Pick 81: Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins QB. High (44) Low (122) Yahoo (74)
Pick 82: Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys TE. High (77) Low (110) Yahoo (96)
Pick 83: Donald Brown, Indianapolis Colts RB. High (74) Low (112) Yahoo (71)
Pick 84: Baltimore Ravens Defense/Special Teams. High (72) Low (108) Yahoo (172)
Pick 85: Beanie Wells, Arizona Cardinals RB. High (70) Low (125) Yahoo (88)
Pick 86: Michael Bush, Chicago Bears RB. High (73) Low (114) Yahoo (108)
Pick 87: Kevin Smith, Detroit Lions RB. High (64) Low (129) Yahoo (75)
Pick 88: Chicago Bears Defense/Special Teams. High (77) Low (128) Yahoo (158)
Pick 89: Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears QB. High (64) Low (127) Yahoo (82)
Pick 90: Houston Texans Defense/Special Teams. High (72) Low (114) Yahoo (181)
Picks 91-100 (Round 10)
28 of 28Pick 91: DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers RB. High (72) Low (153) Yahoo (80)
Pick 92: Justin Blackmon, Jacksonville Jaguars WR. High (82) Low (118) Yahoo (117)
Pick 93: Cedric Benson, Green Bay Packers RB. High (62) Low (132) Yahoo (115)
Pick 94: Stephen Gostkowski, New England Patriots K. High (88) Low (148) Yahoo (224)
Pick 95: Philadelphia Eagles Defense/Special Teams. High (89) Low (135) Yahoo (167)
Pick 96: Roy Helu, Washington Redskins RB. High (56) Low (161) Yahoo (113)
Pick 97: Malcom Floyd, San Diego Chargers WR. High (83) Low (146) Yahoo (103)
Pick 98: Kenny Britt, Tennessee Titans WR. High (78) Low (161) Yahoo (101)
Pick 99: Denarius Moore, Oakland Raiders WR. High (88) Low (153) Yahoo (78)
Pick 100: Issac Redman, Pittsburgh Steelers RB. High (83) Low (153) Yahoo (99)



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