Fantasy Football Draft Strategy 2012: Why RB Is Still Smart Choice in Round 1

Quarterbacks are the sexy pick in the first round of a fantasy football draft. Calvin Johnson is a beast, and you could establish yourself as a risk-taker by drafting a tight end. But the smart choice for the first player on your roster this season is still a running back. 

The number of running backs who do not split time with another player is continuing to dwindle, and there are so few options for a reliable player who can be counted on week in and week out.

The top tier of running backs includes Arian Foster, Ray Rice and LeSean McCoy. Based on past production, Maurice Jones-Drew and Chris Johnson could be in that category, but MJD’s holdout and Johnson’s poor season as a result of his holdout last summer make these two players slightly riskier picks.

Based on average draft positions for ESPN, NFL.com and Yahoo, no other running back besides these five players will be picked in the first round in a 12-team league. If any of these five star RBs is available with your first pick, do not hesitate to draft them. 

Unless you are lucky enough to have a top-five pick, Foster, Rice and McCoy will likely be off the board. However, picking a quarterback early over either of these three will be tempting if you are choosing early.

Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Drew Brees will all surely have spectacular seasons, but they are still not more valuable than any of the three top running backs.

Ten quarterbacks passed for over 4,000 yards this past season, and all with the possible exception of Ben Roethlisberger can be relied on as consistent fantasy starters.

Running backs inherently come with more risk as their production is more volatile and the risk for injury is greater. However, this is why a reliable running back is so valuable.

A top RB busting is more likely that a top quarterback failing to live up to expectations, but having the top running back in the league is much more beneficial to your team than having the best QB.

Obviously, you will have to play at least two running backs per week, and possibly more if your league uses flex spots. Having a player like Tony Romo or Philip Rivers as your starting quarterback instead of Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady will certainly cost a few points per week.

However, choosing a running back early puts you in position to take a second back at the beginning of Round 3. 

The smart choice is to sacrifice a little at quarterback to end up with a combination of backs like Arian Foster and Jamaal Charles or Ray Rice and Steven Jackson. This offers you plenty of depth at the position.

If you are picking later, then the upside for Jones-Drew and Johnson is simply too tempting to pass up. Both players are equally as productive as the top-tier backs, but simply come with slightly more risk.

Jones-Drew has played through injuries and missed time in the preseason due to health reasons and has gone on to have productive years. Johnson has gone through a full preseason schedule and he looks ready to return to his form of two seasons ago. 

Both these players are steals late in the first round.

The conventional wisdom that running backs are the most valuable fantasy football performers is being challenged this season with quarterbacks and even tight ends being taken in the first round.

This has led to five star runners sliding to picks where they offer fantastic value. If these players are available to you, take them.