NHL Western Conference Standings: April 9

There are 9-11 games left for most teams.  The race in the west is particularly tight in the 7th and 8th spots at the conference level and also within the Northwest division.  If we do a simulation based on each team's relative performance in their last 10 respective games, we can trend a potential final result.  My breakdown is below.  It's not completely "scientific" however I compared the records of each team and their respective match-up and allocated points based on their records.

The assumption here of course means San Jose remains hot and most teams maintain their relative poise, roster/IR status and competitiveness.

The result is:

DET 116
SJS 111
COL  97
ANA 100
DAL  99
CGY  94
MIN  92
PHX  89 (36+5=41 Wins)
VAN  89 (35+3=38 Wins)
EDM  88
NAS  86
CHI  85
CLB  84

Which would have DET facing PHX, SJS vs. Minny, COL vs. CGY and DAL vs. ANA.

Immediately there are two huge divisional rivalries in the last two groupings which could very well go the distance in the best of seven.  As the RW's have been known to be knocked out in round 1 (twice in last 4 playoffs), the Coyotes story could live on.  And of course, Minnesota will try yet again to make it through an initial round as the Sharks will try to impose their end of season dominance in their quest for the Cup.

Will try and do a similar simulation for the East soon.  Sadly, the Canucks do not make it because they do not win enough games while their point total was boosted by the OTL's.  Recall last season's remark that their OT success helped to boost them into the playoffs, perhaps masking an underlying performance problem.

Two interesting notes.  Phoenix and Edmonton can continue to feast on the potential of taking 8th.  Minnesota's 3-4-3 in their last ten, and could slip that 7th spot if they continue to slump! 

My assumptions are below: TEAM = vs Team # games (Results)

DET= Nsh 3 (2W), Cls 4 (2W,1OTL), Stl 2 (2W), Chi 2 (1W,1OTL)
100+4+5+4+3=116pts

NAS= Det 3 (1W), Was, Chi 2 (1OTL), Cls 2 (1W), Stl 2 (1W, 1OTL)
78+2+1+2+3=86pts

CLB= Chi 3 (1W, 1OTL), Det 4 (1W, 1OTW), Cgy, Nsh 2 (1W), Stl 2 (1W, 1OTL)
73+3+3+2+3=84pts

CHI= Cls 3 (2W), Det 2 (1OTW), Nas 2 (1W,1OTW), Was(1OTL), STL 2 (1W), CGY (1OTL)
73+4+1+3+1+2+1=85pts

COL= NJ (1W), Min 3 (2W), Cgy 2 (1W, 1OTW), Edm 2 (1W), Van 2 (1W,1OTL)
84+2+4+4+2+3=97pts

MIN= LA (1W), Col 3 (1W), SJ, EDM 2 (1OTW), Van 2 (1W), Cgy 2 (1W, 1OTL)
82+2+2+1+2+3=92pts

CGY= COL 2 (1OTL), MIN 2 (1OTW), CLB (1W), CHI (1OTW), VAN 3 (1W, 1OTW), EDM 2 (1W)
82+1+2+2+2+3+2=94pts

VAN= DAL (1OTL), PHO, COL 2 (1OTW), EDM 2 (1OTL), MIN 2 (1W), CGY 3 (1W, 1OTL)
80+1+2+1+2+3=89pts

EDM= PHO 2 (1W, 1OTW), SJ, VAN 2 (1W, 1OTW), MIN 2 (1W, 1OTL), COL 2 (1W), CGY 2 (1W)
73+4+4+3+2+2=88pts

SJS= STL (1W), EDM (1W), LOS 3 (2W,1OTL), ANA 2 (1W, 1OTW), MIN (1W), PHO 2 (1W, 1OTW), DAL 2 (2W)
90+2+2+5+3+2+3+4=111pts

DAL= Van (1OTW), Ana 2 (1OTW), SJS 2, LOS 2 (1W, 1OTW), PHO 2 (1W)
89+2+2+4+2=99pts

ANA= STL (1W), DAL 2 (1W, 1OTL), SJS 2 (1OTL), LOS 2 (1W, 1OTW), PHO 2 (1W)
88+2+3+1+4+2=100pts

PHO= EDM 2 (1OTL), VAN (1W), LOS 2 (1W, 1OTW), ANA 2 (1W), SJS 2 (1OTL), DAL 2 (1W)
77+1+2+4+2+1+2=89pts