March Madness Preview: Duke Blue Devils

It feels strange to be skeptical of Duke's ability to make a deep run in March.  

Just three seasons ago, Duke had gone to the Sweet 16 or further in nine consecutive seasons.  Now, the Blue Devils field a team which has no starters who have played past the second round of the NCAA tournament.  

With first-weekend upsets in the past two tournaments still fresh on fans' minds, it's easy to understand why many are doubtful of Duke's post-season chances.

Is this the season the Blue Devils turn things around?  The easy answer all season has been "maybe." But looking at how things are playing out at this point in the season, it may be time to change that to "likely."

Reasons for Optimism

There are plenty of factors that point to Duke being a legitimate contender for a deep run in March.

For starters, Gerald Henderson has emerged as a consistent game-changer.  He's averaging close to 22 points per game in ACC play, and has looked nearly unstoppable with the ball in his hands.  If he continues to play at this level, Duke will have plenty of things to smile about in March.

Jon Scheyer, who was seriously struggling just a few weeks ago, is now thriving as the point guard for Duke (a position that has been a constant struggle for the Blue Devils this year).  He has committed only two turnovers in the last three games, leading to a more consistent Blue Devils offense.

Kyle Singler is making sure this Duke team doesn't get outrebounded, something that significantly handicapped them last year (West Virginia had 26 more rebounds than Duke in last year's second-round upset).  Even though Duke plays with a small lineup, they are hanging with much bigger and more physical teams on the boards.

Elliot Williams has given this Duke team a big spark since joining the starting lineup against St. John's.  He's averaging 12 points per game as a starter, providing smothering ball pressure, and adding some much-needed athleticism to complement Henderson.

Duke is finally seeing a bigger basket of late.  Although they've only been a 33.6 percent shooting team from behind the arc, they're shooting 41.2 percent from deep range over the last three games.

Reasons for Concern

Defense has been this team's bread and butter for most of the season, but not lately. In the last seven games, Duke's opponents' field goal percentage has averaged 52.9 percent.  It's going to be hard to get to the Final Four if that number doesn't drop.

Even with three previous starters now coming off the bench, Duke is having a hard time finding production from it's non-starters.

Greg Paulus still hasn't found his niche coming off the bench, and both Bryan Zoubek and Nolan Smith have nearly been total non-factors since moving out of the starting lineup.

If Duke is going to go deep in March, they'll need someone on the bench to step up and produce.

Even though Duke has held its own against bigger teams (save for Clemson), the jury is still out on how they would do against a very physical team like Pittsburgh.

Duke's new lineup may create favorable backcourt matchups, but it could also create problems with opponents featuring extremely physical frontcourts.

Remaining Challenges

The Blue Devils aren't out of the woods yet. They still have games against Florida State, Virginia Tech, and North Carolina before the ACC tournament begins.

The ACC tournament should be interesting.  There are several teams who could win, and several more who can upset the top seeds.  

Duke needs to win at least two of its next three games and make a solid showing in the ACC tournament to carry some momentum into the NCAA tournament, something they haven't done in nearly three years.

Final Projection

This Duke team will be in the Sweet 16 and will likely make the Elite Eight.  Getting to the Final Four will depend on how kind the rims are in March.