Marquez-Diaz: Keys to Victory
BY:Carl Hewitt
Golden Boy Promotionsโ Lightweight Tournament is packed with intriguing matchups involving some of the divisionโs finest talent, and it very well may be the best card of boxing weโll see in 2009, but Saturdayโs duel between Juan Manuel Marquez and Juan โBaby Bullโ Diaz is interesting because it pairs one of the sportโs most accomplished practitioners over the past decade with one of its most promising young fighters.
Marquezโs achievements in the ring require no validation, and neither does his performances in his biggest fightsโheโs taken on the best in three different weight divisions and acquitted himself splendidly.
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Whether Marquez secures that elusive third match with Manny Pacquiao is irrelevant because his high standing in boxing history is assured.
Furthermore, many boxing fans are still not convinced that the Filipino superstar won either fight, and even more will assess his career with raised eyebrows if he doesnโt settle the score with his toughest adversary, once and for all.
So, even though it appears that Marquez fights on only to force a third bout with boxingโs pound-for-pound king, it says here that Marquezโs legacy is complete without any additional engagements with the Pacman.
In fact, it could rationally be argued that Marquez has yet to suffer a definitive defeat inside the squared circle.
Diaz, on the other hand, is looking to regain his perch atop the Lightweight Division, a perch he grudgingly relinquished last March in a shocking upset loss to Nate Campbellโshocking only because the odds-makers never saw it coming, and Diaz had looked so dominant in capturing the WBA title from Julio Diaz five months earlier.
โBaby Bullโ rebounded nicely and recaptured his previous form against Michael Katsidis in his last outing, but Marquez is a huge step up from the Aussie brawler - and thatโs what makes this fight one worth watching!
Analysis
Was the loss to Campbell just an โoff nightโ, or was it a harbinger of future difficulties for Diaz against versatile boxer-punchers?
Few boxers are more versatile than Marquez, so on the surface, it would appear that Houstonโs finest fighter could be in over his head, but letโs not forget what got Diaz to this point in his careerโnamely, a measured approach in the ring, sound fundamental boxing and maturity characteristic of a seasoned veteran with years of experience.
The loss against Campbell had more to do with Campbell and less to do with Diaz. The โGalaxxy Warriorโ was able to cut Diaz over the left eye in round five and had the wherewithal to exploit that cut.
โBaby Bullโ fought bravely with the cut, but was clearly handicapped. Minus the cut, would Diaz have had enough to hold off Campbell that night?
Thatโs open to conjecture, but the fact remains that even though Diaz didnโt fight his best fight against one of the divisionโs better fighters, he still fought competitively enough to lose by close split decision.
The CompuBox numbers would indicate that it wasnโt a close affair, but Diazโs ring generalship, even under adverse circumstances, probably bought him a few more rounds than he merited.
Prior to that loss, 33 fighters were unable to solve the young lightweight. One loss has done little to derail the momentum of Diazโs career and his willingness to jump right back into the fire against one of boxingโs top five fighters speaks volumes about the confidence and self-assuredness of not only the fighter, but his management team as well.
And letโs not forget that not too long ago, the 34-1 lightweight/college student was being mentioned as a potential opponent for Ricky Hatton at 140 lbs., in what would have resulted in a fairly even matchup, if I may say so myself!
Going from Katsidis to Marquez is akin to playing the Charlotte Bobcats one night and the Los Angeles Lakers two evenings later, but if thereโs one fighter in the lighter weight classes who can handle such a severe step up in class, itโs Diaz. Why? Because his attack isnโt based upon raw punching power.
His power is good, but not concussive. Hence, heโs more of a boxer-puncher who uses angles, footwork and well-timed counter-punching to get the job done. But will Diaz have to bring even more to the table to get the job done against the highly-skilled Marquez, a natural featherweight whose career spans nearly 16 years?
The odds-makers donโt think so, but the odds-makers donโt do the fighting. And despite his stoppage of lineal lightweight champion, Joel Casamayor, itโs safe to assume that Marquez doesnโt possess true lightweight power.
What Marquez has in abundance is ring savvy and tons of big fight experience. In recent fights, heโs opened up his offense more in an attempt to become a more โfan-friendlyโ fighter, but in the process, heโs had serious defensive lapses that have caused him to taste the canvas on more than one occasion.
While such lapses probably wonโt prove fatal against Diaz, they could expose Marquez to unnecessary punishment. Diaz has been nothing if not accurate and efficient with his punches, so any lapses by Marquez Saturday night could lead to the same type of swelling and cuts he suffered against Barrera and Pacquiao.
Thatโs the predicament Marquez facesโfight aggressively and provide lots of excitement, intensifying the fansโ calls for a third Pacquiao fight, or rely on his superior technical boxing skills and risk losing yet another close and disputed decision.
Itโs definitely something Marquez will ponder repeatedly in the final few days leading up to the bout.
Prediction
As gifted a technical boxer as Marquez is its defensive lapses at key moments in his biggest fights that have continued to trip him up and prevent him from separating himself from his more-celebrated contemporaries.
Had he avoided the knockdowns in both Pacquiao fights, its doubtful Marquez would have even ventured north to the Lightweight Division and there probably would have been an exciting rematch with Barrera.
Even in the Barrera victory, Marquez was forced to pick himself up from the canvas. Luckily and oddly, the knockdown he suffered at the very end of Round Seven was not scored as one.
The strange scoring of that fight aside, itโs puzzling to see a fighter as skilled as Marquez on the canvas so often. Is it merely quirks of fate and something technical that can be corrected in the gym or does it have more to do with the fact that Marquez is a far better fighter while counter-punching and becomes a more available target when attempting to lead?
In any event, his opponent Saturday night is very good at forcing the action, but even better at countering, so thereโs a very good chance that this fight will come down to whose jab is most effective in the early rounds. The fighter able to establish his jab will win this fight.
Two factors that weigh heavily in Diazโs favor are the fact that heโs the natural lightweight and heโs already faced a crafty opponent in Campbell.
What Diaz learned from the Campbell fight is that heโs at his best when he gets inside, fires his punches and maneuvers out of striking distance; thatโs what he did against Katsidis and the Aussie was never really in the fight.
Will he be able to do that against Marquez? Itโs doubtful that heโll enjoy that same kind of offensive success in this fight, but if he can get Marquez moving forward for most of the fight, that means that his jab is working, and if his jab is working, the combinations to the head and body will be all that more effective.
Marquez is no spring chicken, but his stamina in the late rounds has never come into question and his sense of when to apply pressure and when not to is peerless. However, I just canโt wrap my mind around Marquez as a lightweight and am not entirely convinced that heโll be dominant at this weight.
Diaz on the other hand, looks quite comfortable at 135 lbs. and continues to improve technically each fight. This is a nearly dead-even fight and though Iโd normally favor the more experienced and technically-sound Marquez against virtually any other opponent, heโll be facing a Diaz who knows that a second loss in the division within a year could prove fatal, a Diaz who knows his strengths and is unlikely to neglect them again.
I donโt see an all-out war evolving at any time in this fight, but I do see Diaz matching Marquez combination-for-combination and having enough in the tank to score a razor-thin decision victory.
I wouldnโt be surprised to see Marquez win because heโs truly an all-time great, but Diaz is the future of the division and is hungry to erase any lingering memories of the loss to Campbell last year.
Diaz by UD.
Aftermath
Both fighters are classy and well-respected pugilists. For Marquez, the question is whether or not to continue pressing for another Pacquiao fight. Win or lose against Diaz, Marquez has to decide whether to remain at 135 lbs., an unnatural weight for him, or return to his more natural weight class of 130 lbs.
Thereโs no guarantee that Pacquiao will ever fight as a lightweight again and a victory over Hatton in March will lead to a showdown with Floyd Mayweather.
Marquez can make plenty of noise in either the 130 or 135 lb. divisions, with or without a third bout with Manny, and kudos to him for fighting the two best lightweights in his new division right off the bat! Itโs one of the reasons Marquez is so highly-regarded and is assured a place in Boxingโs Hall of Fame.
A victory for Diaz on Saturday night will lead to larger purses and a spot against the winner of Golden Boy Promotionsโ upcoming Lightweight Tournament.
There have been relatively few indications that Diaz has any plans of fighting at 140 lbs. in the near future, because with Hattonโs days in boxing numbered, itโs doubtful even a victorious Diaz would be on the short list of future opponents for Englandโs โHit Manโ.
There are plenty of potential opponents on tap for both Diaz and Marquez. The 135 lb. division is a bit deeper than the 130 lb. division, so win, lose or draw, expect Marquez to continue campaigning at the lightweight limit.
Just donโt expect to see him in the ring with Pacquiao again. 2009 will be an exciting year for the Lightweight Division, with Marquez and Diaz right in the thick of things. And thatโs a good thing!
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