College Basketball Bubble Watch: Mar. 13

Well, that was interesting. The Big East Tournament started off with a bang as Syracuse got demolished and will probably have home-court throughout the NIT, while West Virginia held on against Providence and, as long as they don’t get blown out today by UCONN, will enter lock status tomorrow.

Villanova now enters the Bubble Watch, but still needs to beat Georgetown to lock up a spot. I can't understand why people want to put Villanova in now. Why would beating the NIT-bound Syracuse cement 'Nova's tourney bid? The Wildcats need to take care of business this afternoon to receive an at-large bid.

Bubble Watch will now be updated daily.

There are 31 conference winners that receive automatic bids and 34 At-Large berths available.

Here are the conferences that will receive one bid (18): Butler (Horizon), Cornell (Ivy League), Winthrop (Big South), Austin Peay (Ohio Valley), Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Siena (MAAC), Davidson (Southern), Oral Roberts (Summit), Mount St. Mary's (Northeast), Portland State (Big Sky), America East, Big West, MAC, MEAC, Patriot, Southland, SWAC and WAC .

After the one-bid conferences, there are 33 spots that are “Locked In” for possible multiple bid leagues.

A10 (1): Xavier
ACC (4): Duke, UNC, Clemson, Miami
Big East (6): UCONN, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Louisville, Pitt
Big Ten (4): Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan St
Big 12 (3): Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma
C-USA (1): Memphis
Colonial (1): George Mason
Missouri Valley (1): Drake
Mountain West (1): BYU
Pac 10 (4): UCLA, Wash St, USC, Stanford
SEC (3): Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Miss St
Sun Belt (1): Western Kentucky
WCC (3): Gonzaga, St Mary’s, San Diego

So that leaves 14 spots for potential at-large teams. Each bubble team has a short statement of how many games it needs to win in its respective conference tournament to receive at-large consideration.

Note: Teams in BOLD are teams that would make the field if the season ended today.

 
A10
Bubble (4): UMASS, Dayton, St Joe’s, Temple

UMASS: A trip to the semis or beyond should be good enough.
Dayton: Squeaked by St Louis and most likely has to beat X today to still have a shot.
St Joe’s: Has to take care of Richmond today and win tomorrow as well.
Temple: Finals trip might do it, but most likely needs the auto-bid.

 
ACC
Bubble (2): Virginia Tech, Maryland

Virginia Tech: Beat Miami in the quarters and keep it close against UNC.
Maryland: Needs at least two, but most likely has to go to the finals to secure a bid.

 
Big East
Bubble (2): West Virginia, Villanova

WVU: As long as they don’t lose by 20+ today, lock status awaits.
Villanova: Took care of Syracuse, but still has to beat Georgetown today to solidify a bid.

 
Big 10
Bubble (1): Ohio St

Ohio St: Beat MSU in the quarters and the Buckeyes should be dancing.

 
Big 12
Bubble (3): Baylor, Kansas St, Texas A&M

Baylor: One win and the Bears are dancing.
Kansas St: Probably in either way, but a win would solidify a bid.
Texas A&M: Needs one win for sure; maybe two.

 
Colonial
Bubble (1): VCU

VCU: Should get a bid, but tough loss to W&M in the tourney semis.

 
Conference USA
Bubble (1): UAB

UAB: Finals run will get the Blazers into the discussion.

 
Missouri Valley
Bubble (1): Illinois St

Illinois St: Should get a bid, but probably need some teams above them in the pecking order to lose.

 
Mountain West
Bubble (2): UNLV, New Mexico

UNLV: Reach the finals of the tournament.
New Mexico: See above.

 
Pac 10
Bubble (3): Arizona St, Arizona, Oregon

Arizona St: Beat USC and the Sun Devils will be dancing.
Arizona: Got one win, though RPI soared 10+ spots? Needs to beat Stanford today to lock up a bid.
Oregon: Two wins and it'll be tough to leave the Ducks out.

 
SEC
Bubble (4): Kentucky, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Florida

Kentucky: Might be in already; but winning one more will lock it up.
Ole Miss: Two wins might do it. Better get three just to be safe.
Arkansas: See Kentucky.
Florida: Finals or bust.

 
Sun Belt
Bubble (1): South Alabama

South Alabama: Profile isn’t spectacular, but have done enough to warrant a bid.


Last Four in: Ohio St, Oregon, Illinois St, VCU

Last Four out: Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Dayton, Villanova

Next Four out: Virginia Tech, St Joe’s, New Mexico, Maryland

Next update on Friday, March 14