College Basketball Bubble Watch: March 12th

Last night was relatively a calm night in terms of the NCAA tournament bubble watch, as Western Kentucky and Butler took care of business, thus not bursting yet another bubble.

Some of the major conference tournaments begin today and should provide some clarity in figuring out who's in and who's out.

Bubble Watch will now be updated daily.

There are 31 conference winners that receive automatic bids and 34 at-large berths available.

Here are the conferences that will have one bid (18): Ivy (Cornell), Big South (Winthrop), Ohio Valley (Austin Peay), Atlantic Sun (Belmont), MAAC (Siena), Southern (Davidson), Summit (Oral Roberts), Horizon (Butler), America East (UMBC/Hartford), Big Sky (Portland State/Northern Arizona), Northeast (Mount Saint Mary's/Sacred Heart), Patriot (American/Colgate) Big West, MAC, MEAC, Southland, SWAC and WAC.

After the one-bid conferences, there are 33 spots that are "locked in" for possibly multiple bid leagues:
Atlantic 10 (1): Xavier
ACC (4): Duke, UNC, Clemson, Miami
Big East (6): UCONN, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Louisville, Pitt
Big Ten (4): Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan St
Big 12 (3): Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma
C-USA (1): Memphis
Colonial (1): George Mason
Missouri Valley (1): Drake
Mountain West (1): BYU
Pac-10 (4): UCLA, Wash St, USC, Stanford
SEC (3): Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Miss St
Sun Belt (1): Western Kentucky
WCC (3): Gonzaga, St Mary’s, San Diego

So that leaves 14 spots for potential at-large teams. Each bubble team has a short statement of how many games it needs to win in its respective conference tournament to receive at-large consideration.

Note: Teams in BOLD are teams that would make the field if the season ended today.

A10
Bubble 4: UMASS, Dayton, St Joe’s, Temple

UMASS: A trip to the semi's or beyond should be good enough.
Dayton: Has to beat Xavier in the quarters to have any kind of shot.
St Joe’s: Needs at least two, maybe three wins (which could mean another win over X).
Temple: Finals trip might do it, but most likely needs the auto-bid.

ACC
Bubble 2: Virginia Tech, Maryland

Virginia Tech: Must beat Miami in the quarters and keep it close against UNC.
Maryland: Needs at least two, but most likely has to go to the finals to secure a bid.

Big East
Bubble 3: West Virginia, Syracuse, Villanova

WVU: Cannot afford a first round exit. Win and they are in.
Syracuse: Elimination game against Nova. Winner still has a shot.
Villanova: Needs the Syracuse game more than the Orange. Probably has to beat Georgetown, as well.

Big 10
Bubble 1: Ohio St

Ohio St: Beat Michigan State in the quarters and the Buckeyes should be dancing.

Big 12
Bubble 3: Baylor, Kansas St, Texas A&M

Baylor: One win and the Bears are dancing.
Kansas St: Probably in either way, but a win would solidify a bid.
Texas A&M: Needs 1 for sure; maybe 2.

Colonial
Bubble 1: VCU

VCU: Should get a bid, but tough loss to William & Mary's in the CAA semis could cost them an NCAA bid.

Conference USA
Bubble 1: UAB

UAB: Finals run will get the Blazers into the discussion.

Missouri Valley
Bubble 1: Illinois St.

Illinois St.: Should get a bid, but probably needs some teams above them in the pecking order to lose.

Mountain West
Bubble 2: UNLV, New Mexico

UNLV: Must reach the finals of the tournament.
New Mexico: See above.

Pac 10
Bubble 3: Arizona St, Arizona, Oregon

Arizona St: Beat USC, and the Sun Devils will be dancing.
Arizona: Two wins would be good. Three would be great.
Oregon: Two wins and it'll be tough to leave the Ducks out.

SEC
Bubble 4: Kentucky, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Florida

Kentucky: Might be in already; but winning one more will lock it up.
Ole Miss: Two wins might do it. Better get three just to be safe.
Arkansas: See Kentucky.
Florida: Finals or bust.

Sun Belt
Bubble 1: South Alabama

South Alabama: Profile isn’t spectacular, but has done enough to warrant a bid.

Last Four in: Ohio St., Oregon, VCU, West Virginia

Last Four out: Texas A&M, Syracuse, Ole Miss, Dayton

Next Four out: Virginia Tech, St. Joe’s, New Mexico, Villanova

Next update will come Thursday, March 13