UFC 149: Hector Lombard vs. Tim Boetsch Tactical Breakdown

In the furor surrounding the cursed UFC 149 card, the Octagon debut of Hector Lombard, the would-be challenger to Anderson Silva’s 185-pound title, has been largely overlooked. The Cuban’s bout with “The Barbarian” Tim Boetsch may not transcend the sport, but there is no doubting its title implications. With that in mind, let’s take a closer look at Saturday night’s Co-Main Event.

Let’s be clear from the outset. This is not a “gimme” for the Tyson-esque former Bellator middleweight king. Tim Boetsch has been on a tear recently, and will enjoy a significant size advantage over Lombard.

Sure, “The Barbarian” was beaten from pillar to post in his last fight, against the interminably underrated Yushin Okami, but his mental toughness and hammer-like right hand carried him to perhaps the biggest win of his career—much to Joe Rogan’s excitement.

How should Hector Lombard approach a fight against an opponent who will doubtless dwarf him in the cage? Why, with his usual brand of unbridled aggression, of course. It is the only way he knows how to fight, and it just so happens to be the most effective approach against Boetsch.

Lombard should start the fight as though he has dinner reservations. Given his occasional stamina issues, the cartoonishly muscular Cuban should seek to end Boetsch’s night early. And when one considers the power Lombard carries in his fists, a quick finish is not beyond the realm of the possible.

As always, it is easy to sit here and speculate as to how a fighter should approach his job, but the reality is that Lombard will need to get inside on “The Barbarian,” running the risk of getting clipped on the way in.

I would prescribe kicks in order to close the distance, but Lombard is perhaps more likely to throw a head-butt before he resorts to a nuanced kicking game. He will have to be lucky or hope his chin holds up while he wades in with haymakers.

There is also the slim possibility that the former Olympic judoka will take advantage of his world class clinch game, relying on throws and trips to put Boetsch on his back. Strangely, this does not appear to be Lombard’s modus operandi, so this is only marginally more likely than the aforementioned kicking scenario.

On the other side of the cage, Boetsch needs to get off to a faster start than is the norm. One gets the feeling that Lombard will be less charitable than Okami.

He cannot expect to take a pounding for a couple of rounds on Saturday and still remain conscious, unless he plans on making a comeback from the afterlife this time—Joe Rogan may explode if that occurs. Boetsch must not to get caught cold.

Boetsch’s game has never been subtle, but he might have to bank on a little technique this weekend. Now, I am not suggesting the tank-like Maine Wrestling Hall of Famer turn into Floyd Mayweather, but it wouldn’t hurt to put a little distance between himself and the walking muscle.

If the fight does turn into a Greco match against the cage, that might very well favour “The Barbarian,” despite being the less credentialed clinch-technician. He can use his size and strength to wear on Lombard, which could pay dividends towards the end of the fight.

Although this is a tough test for the former Bellator champ, he will likely find success at some point in the fight. And with his power, the smart money should go on a first- or second-round TKO for Lombard.