Fantasy Baseball 2012: Breakdown of AccuScore's Projections for Pitching Wins

AccuScore, a company that specializes in thorough game simulations, has made a few on-the-fly revisions to its seasonal projections.

These 31 starting pitchers, based on AccuScore projections (not mine), will register at least 7.5 victories from this point forward (July 13-Sept. 30):

1. Jered Weaver, Angels—9.6
2. Wade Miley, Diamondbacks—9.5
3. CC Sabathia, Yankees—9.0
4. Colby Lewis, Rangers—8.9
5. Hiroki Kuroda, Yankees—8.6
6. Kyle Lohse, Cardinals—8.6
7. Tim Hudson, Braves—8.5
8. Matt Harrison, Rangers—8.5
9. Lance Lynn, Cardinals—8.4
10. Scott Diamond, Twins—8.4
11. Madison Bumgarner, Giants—8.3
12. Chris Sale, White Sox—8.3
13. Ian Kennedy, Diamondbacks—8.2
14. Justin Verlander, Tigers—8.0
15. Cole Hamels, Phillies—8.0


Breakdown

• I love Jered Weaver's chances of capturing American League Cy Young honors this year, and AccuScore's four-category projections for 9.6 wins, 88.4 strikeouts, 2.44 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP certainly enhance the prediction.
• All-Star pitcher Wade Miley has recorded a decision in his last 10 outings—six wins and four losses—so he certainly has a chance at 10 victories from this point forward. But here's something to consider: The second-year southpaw has allowed eight or more hits in his last three games.
• I don't expect Justin Verlander (9-5, 2.58 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 128/30 K-BB) or Matt Harrison (11-4, 3.10 ERA, 1.24) to incur any slumps after their middling performances in Tuesday's All-Star game. However, Harrison has averaged only 4.1 strikeouts in his last seven starts. His margin for error—from a fantasy-elite standpoint—is considerably less than Verlander's.
• The projection that jumps right off the page: Scott Diamond (7-3, 2.62 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) tallying 8.4 victories. He's a solid pitching prospect, but his second-half success is directly connected to the Twins' prowess at the plate. Currently, Minnesota ranks 10th in runs, 12th in homers and ninth in batting average (among American League teams).

16. James McDonald, Pirates—8.0
17. Ross Detwiler, Nationals—8.0
18. Stephen Strasburg, Nationals—7.9
19. Tim Lincecum, Giants—7.8
20. Adam Wainwright, Cardinals—7.7
21. Mat Latos, Reds—7.7
22. R.A. Dickey, Mets—7.7
23. Wei-Yin Chen, Orioles—7.7
24. Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals—7.7
25. C.J. Wilson, Angels—7.6
26. Jake Peavy, White Sox—7.6
27. Trevor Cahill, Diamondbacks—7.6
28. Wandy Rodriguez, Astros—7.5
29. Johnny Cueto, Reds—7.5
30. Travis Wood, Cubs—7.5
31. Clay Buchholz, Red Sox—7.5


Breakdown

• Fingers crossed on AccuScore's seven-win prophecy for Tim Lincecum (3-10, 6.42 ERA, 1.58). From this point forward, AccuScore has the embattled Giants starter down for seven wins, 96.2 strikeouts, a 3.75 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. That's a substantial improvement from the first half.
• I'll be in Vegas this weekend (SI.com golf guru Jeff Ritter's bachelor party), and if prompted, I'd bet the "under" on Baltimore's Wei-Yin Chen collecting 7.7 second-half victories. Conversely, I'd wager the "over" on C.J. Wilson (7.6 wins) and Johnny Cueto (7.5).
• Ross Detwiler currently has four wins. He also has ownership in just 9.1 percent of ESPN.com leagues. That's not necessarily a recipe for second-half glory (projection: 8.0 wins). But if this prediction should come true on Oct. 1, I will give full props to AccuScore on that date. It goes without saying: AccuScore has big plans for the first-place Nationals in the second half, if the No. 5 starter stands to post more victories than the Mariners' undisputed ace.
• Noticeably absent from this list: Felix Hernandez, David Price, Gio Gonzalez, Cliff Lee, Dan Haren, Tommy Hanson, Zack Greinke, Jon Lester, Matt Cain, Roy Halladay, Josh Johnson, Max Scherzer, Yu Darvish, A.J. Burnett, Clayton Kershaw.
• For what it's worth, AccuScore has Kershaw slotted for 5.8 wins, 101.4 strikeouts, 2.68 ERA and 1.05 WHIP from this point forward—elite numbers in three categories. So there's really no point in lamenting the 5.8 victories.

Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.