Fantasy Football 2012: Is Rob Gronkowski for Real? Top 12 Tight End Rankings

Since this is July 4th week, let’s talk about a little Shock and Awe, also known as Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham. These two players are completely changing the tight end position. They have also taken over most tight end conversations. Never before have we seen two tight ends outscore all but two wide receivers in a single season.

Gronkowski was absolutely a beast in the red-zone and outscored all tight ends, including Graham, but many statisticians are now calling for him to regress back to the mean. But for some reason the same is not being said about Graham. It will be interesting to see which of these guys can lead the charge in 2012, if it is even one of these two.

There is a ton of talent at tight end, and a position that was once an afterthought in fantasy football is now a strength. As teams go to the air more, these huge tight ends can change a game. Defenses will struggle to stop them. They are too tall for most defensive backs and too fast for most linebackers.

As always in this league, once a team finds success doing something different, other teams will follow. With the success the Patriots have had using two tight ends, we will see more teams trying to imitate that success, and because of that, tight ends will continue to grow in importance for fantasy owners.

The quarterback, running back  and wide receiver rankings have already been released, so let’s jump into the tight end rankings. Please comment below with any thoughts on this list.

1.  Rob Gronkowski (NE)

Gronkowski put up 10 touchdowns in 2010 as a rookie on only 42 receptions and most analysts swore that he could not repeat those numbers heading into his second season, especially with Aaron Hernandez in the mix. We know now that he did not repeat those numbers; he far exceeded them.

For his second season he blew the top off those numbers. He caught 90 passes for 1,327 yards and 17 touchdowns. Both the yardage and touchdowns were NFL records for tight ends.

Let’s break it down even further.  Gronk had nine games with more than 20 fantasy points (using PPR scoring with no bonuses), 10 games with at least 75 receiving yards and seven games with multiple touchdowns. To compare, Calvin Johnson only had nine games with more than 75 yards and five games with multiple touchdowns. Even with 25 fewer targets than Graham, Gronk eclipsed him in both yards and touchdowns and only had nine less receptions.

Even if his 2011 numbers come down slightly in 2012, there is still only one tight end that will fight him for this top spot. That’s the man many consider to be No. 1-B instead of No. 2, Jimmy Graham.

2.  Jimmy Graham (NO)

The truly amazing thing about Jimmy Graham is that he has only played three years of football, one year of college and now two in the NFL, but is already considered one of the best to play the game at the position. We have to wonder what he will do once he gets a few more years under his belt.

Last year Graham caught 99 passes, only three shy of Tony Gonzalez’s record of 102 in 2004, for 1,310 yards and 11 touchdowns. Graham had seven games of more than 20 points, 10 games with at least 75 yards receiving, but only two games with multiple scores. He was easily the most targeted tight end in the league and looks like a good shot to hold that title again in 2012.

Calvin Johnson and Wes Welker were the only two wide receivers with more fantasy points than both Graham and Gronkowski. By grabbing one of these tight ends at the end of the first or beginning of the second, you are getting a top-5 wide receiver at tight end.

To see a really good comparison between Gronkowski and Graham read this article by Bucky Brooks of NFL.com.

3.  Brent Celek (PHI)

Celek got off to an awful start in 2011. After the first five games he had only nine receptions, 73 yards and no touchdowns. In three of those games he only had one reception. That changed over the next 11 games. He went from averaging just 4.2 targets per game to 6.6 in the last 11.

He finished the season with 62 receptions, only one less than team leader Jeremy Maclin, 811 yards and five touchdowns. Over that last 11-game string he was the fifth-ranked tight end, and in eight of those games he had double-digit points. He also scored three touchdowns in the last three games.

This offensive line definitely took steps to improve last year, one of the reasons Celek was freed up more as the season progressed, but even with the loss of Jason Peters this offseason, this line should be very strong in 2012. If Celek isn’t tasked with blocking, it will free him up to once again be a big part of this offense.

4.  Antonio Gates (SD)

Gates ended 2011 with the fewest touchdowns he’s had since his rookie season. Injuries have become his biggest concern. He missed three games in 2011 and six games in 2010 as he battled a nagging foot injury. Even with the missed time and fighting the injuries through several other games, Gates still managed to average 57 receptions, 780 yards and 8.5 touchdowns in those two years, including 10 touchdowns in just 10 games in 2010.

Chargers head coach Norv Turner had this to say about Gates in May; “Gates looks great — he's back. Physically, he's back to where we want him to be. I think, like anybody, going through this offseason program helps you get better. (It's) the combination of conditioning, the combination of getting better in the areas you can improve, and being out there with your teammates.”

Not unusual to hear that kind of praise in May or June, but can he hold it together for an entire season is the question in fantasy owners minds. With the depth at the position, is it worth the risk to pull the trigger on Gates in fantasy drafts?

Absolutely!

Gates finished 2010 as the third-ranked TE even though he only played in 10 games. In 2011, with the elite emergence of Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham, Gates was still the seventh-ranked tight end in 13 games. If he can stay healthy for 2012 we could be looking at the type of numbers he had in 2009: 79 receptions, 1,157 yards and eight touchdowns. Those numbers would’ve made him the third highest scoring tight end in 2011. Gates could easily lead the Chargers in receptions now that Vincent Jackson has moved to Tampa Bay.

5.  Jason Witten (DAL)

Even though it feels like Witten has been playing forever, he is only 30 years old and still in his prime, but he is coming off his worst statistical season since 2006. He caught 79 passes for 942 yards and five touchdowns in 2011, but those numbers were still good enough to rank fifth in PPR scoring.

The scary part for Witten is the way his targets dropped during the second half of the season. In the first eight games he was seeing 8.9 targets a game; in the final eight he was only getting 5.8. In five of his first eight games he had at least nine targets, including three double-digit games. The highest total he had in the second half of the season was eight targets in Week 17 against the Giants.

A lot of that drop off can probably be blamed on the emergence of Laurent Robinson. Robinson had 50 targets over those last eight games after having only 28 in the first eight. Fortunately for Witten, Robinson is now in Jacksonville, which should allow Witten to pick up a good many of those targets.

6.  Aaron Hernandez (NE)

The middle of any tight end rankings will be all over the map this year. After Gronkowski and Graham, there are at least eight other tight ends who could go anywhere from three to five in 2012. Hernandez finished third in 2011, even while missing two games. What is more amazing is that he does it with Gronkowski on the same team.

The Patriots have thrown 42 touchdowns to their tight ends in the last two seasons and the next highest team is the Saints with 22. There is no doubt that both Gronkowski and Hernandez will continue to be big playmakers on this offense, but the addition of Lloyd might take a little off the top for Hernandez.

Lloyd’s penchant for big plays may just take some of the middle of the field plays out of Hernandez’s hands. But even if that does happen, there is no way Hernandez disappears from Brady’s scope. Hernandez averaged over eight targets a game in 2011. Even if he loses 2 targets a game and ends up with 96 targets on the year, it will still be more targets than Vernon Davis had in 2011.

7.  Tony Gonzalez (ATL)

Every year it is the same thing with Gonzalez; waiting for him to fall off a cliff because of his age. Last year was no different. He was drafted with an ADP of pick 117 in 2011, or the 12th tight end drafted. He finished as the fourth-ranked tight end in PPR leagues and was fifth in points per game for all tight ends. He was not a big part of the offense in Weeks 15 and 17 because the team jumped out to enormous leads and they wanted him fresh for the playoffs or his numbers would’ve been even better.

Fast forward to 2012 drafts and already the same thing is happening with Gonzalez. Once again he is being drafted on average in the middle of the 10th round, as the 12th tight end drafted. Sometimes fantasy owners can be their own worst enemy as they fall in love with all the new “toys” and forget about the players that do it year in and year out.

Sure, he is 36 this season and the talk out of Atlanta is how the offense will become a more vertical threat under new coordinator Dirk Koetter, but Gonzalez can’t be ruled out just because of the emergence of Julio Jones. If anything, Jones may help free up more open space for Gonzalez. Gonzalez has only missed two games in his entire 15-year career and is a physical beast.

Don’t count him out just yet.

8.  Vernon Davis (SF)

Davis is an amazing talent, especially if you ask him. He recently told WUSA-TV "I will be the best tight end to ever play this game. I have a vision."  Hard to put down a player when he thinks of himself that way, as it is somewhat expected, especially from a player who is in fact very good at his position. But Davis has a couple of things working against him.

San Francisco is a run-heavy offense and one of only four teams that ran more often than they passed in 2011. In fact, only two teams, Denver and Houston, ran more than San Francisco. This will continue to be a thorn in Davis’ side, no matter how good he is. The other thing working against him is that his quarterback, Alex Smith, is still a work in progress.

Smith only threw 17 touchdowns in 2011, but now has  a few new tools to play with. They brought over Super Bowl XLVI hero Mario Manningham and future Hall of Famer Randy Moss, and all the talk out of OTAs was about how good Moss looked. From that same article, they are glowing about Kyle Williams as well.

No matter which new wide receiver, or receivers, steps up, it will just be more mouths to feed for an offense that threw for the second-least passing attempts in the league in 2011. Look for Davis to finish in the top 10, but don’t be surprised if the new tools push him slightly down this list.

 9.  Jermichael Finley (GB)

Finley’s name has been synonymous with potential since he entered the league; unfortunately, he has yet to live up to that potential. Finley is coming off his best season as a pro with 55 receptions, 767 yards and eight touchdowns, but his catch rate was way down. Depending on which stat site you read, he dropped 12 or 13 balls in 2011.

In 2009, he also caught 55 balls, but he did that with only 71 targets. To get his 55 receptions in 2011 he needed 92 targets. In fact, 13 tight ends had more receptions than Finley in 2011. He blames his season on a few things: Lack of an offseason, a lack of chemistry with his QB, thinking about his 2010 knee injury, a lack of focus, a flat tire, he got arrested, his tux didn’t come back from the cleaners, an old friend came in from out of town, he ran out of gas… you get the picture.

He signed a two-year deal with Green Bay in the offseason, but it is written so that Green Bay can get out of it in 2013 if Finley once again fails to live up to his potential or loses focus. He is good enough to warrant a top-10 ranking just because of this offense, but if he does finally decide to focus, he could jump up this list.

10.  Brandon Pettigrew (DET)

In 2011, Graham and Gronkowski were the only tight ends that had more receptions than Pettigrew. To go a step further, only four receivers, Wes Welker, Roddy White, Calvin Johnson and Percy Harvin, caught more passes than Pettigrew did. Unfortunately, Pettigrew had the lowest average yards per catch of any tight end with more than 30 receptions. He finished the season with 83 receptions, 777 yards and five touchdowns, and he was the sixth-ranked tight end.

The Lions' offense was very good through the air in 2011. Stafford finally stayed healthy for all 16 games and threw for over 5,000 yards, but the running game did not fare as well. They finished 29th in average rushing yards per game. Most of that is attributed to the many injuries they sustained to the running backs. Because of this, Pettigrew’s routes became a little shorter to act as a pseudo-running game.

Coming into 2012, the running backs appear to be healthy, although we really won’t know until the preseason. But if they are healthy and this unit can rebound, then that should free up Pettigrew to get a little further down the field. Of course, the problem for him this year might be the play of wide receivers Titus Young and rookie Ryan Broyles.

11.  Greg Olsen (CAR)

Olsen shared tight end duties with Jeremy Shockey last year. The duo produced 82 receptions, 995 yards and nine touchdowns, but now Shockey is gone. Even though he had to share duties, Olsen was still second on the team in receptions, third in yards and had four touchdowns in the first seven games.

But as the offensive line lost players to injury early in the season, Olsen was called on more to block. He averaged 7.2 targets per game in the first 10 games, but only 2.8 over the final six. It’s hard to do any damage with those few opportunities.

In this offense, with offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski, Olsen has a chance to become a focal point. As the team continues to struggle to find a No. 2 WR, Olsen has the chance to be a target monster for Newton, especially over the middle of the field.

12.  Fred Davis (WAS)

Davis is making the news recently as a crack attorney, but all that really does is emphasize the issues relating to Davis. He has the ongoing court battle listed above, but he was also suspended in 2011 for four games for violating the league’s substance abuse policy, and if he fails one more test, he will be suspended for an entire season.

The team slapped the franchise tag on him for 2012, which he’s already signed, but Rich Tandler, a Redskins’ Beat Writer for CSNWashington.com, thinks it is extremely unlikely that they sign him to a long-term deal before the July 16th deadline. He will have to prove he can stay out of trouble before they will give him a long-term deal.

Because of this, Davis knows he has to prove himself, but he will also have to deal with a rookie quarterback and two new pass-catchers, Pierre Garcon and Josh Morgan. Davis has the talent to finish near the top of this list if everything comes together, but 12th is as high as he should go now.

Please comment below if there are any disagreements or questions. Discussions are the name of the game at this time of year, and the more these players are discussed and evaluated, the more draft day domination will become a consistent thing.

Please follow Jim Day on Twitter @Fantasytaz and visit his website Fantasytaz.com. He also hosts the Twitter Roundtable podcast on BlogTalkRadio each Wednesday night at 8:00pm EST.