College Basketball Bubble Watch: 3/10

Chris CopelandMar 9, 2008

Conference tournaments are in full bloom and bubble teams need a good showing if they want that coveted invite into the tournament. Bubble Watch will now be updated daily.

There are 31 conference winners that receive automatic bids and 34 At-Large berths available.

Here are the teams/conferences that will have one bid (18): Cornell, Winthrop, Austin Peay, Belmont, America East, Big Sky, Big West, Horizon, MAC, Metro Atlantic, MEAC, Northeast, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, SWAC and WAC.

After the one-bid conferences, there are 31 spots that are Locked in for possibly multiple bid leagues:
A10 (1): Xavier
ACC (4): Duke, UNC, Clemson, Miami
Big East (6): UCONN, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Louisville, Pitt
Big Ten (4): Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan St
Big 12 (3): Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma
C-USA (1): Memphis
Colonial (1): George Mason or William & Mary
Missouri Valley (1): Drake
Mountain West (1): BYU
Pac 10 (4): UCLA, Wash St, USC, Stanford
SEC (3): Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Miss St
WCC (2): Gonzaga, St Mary’s

So that leaves 16 spots for potential at-large teams. Each bubble team has a short statement of how many games it needs to win in its respective conference tournament to receive at-large consideration.

Note: Teams in BOLD are teams that would make the field if the season ended today.

A10
Bubble 4: UMASS, Dayton, St Joe’s, Temple

UMASS: A trip to the semis or beyond should be good enough.
Dayton: Has to beat Xavier in the quarters to have any kind of shot.
St Joe’s: Needs at least 2, maybe 3 wins (which could mean another win over X).
Temple: Finals trip might do it, but most likely needs the auto-bid.

ACC
Bubble 2: Virginia Tech, Maryland

Virginia Tech: Beat Miami in the quarters and keep it close against UNC.
Maryland: Needs at least two, but most likely has to go to the finals to secure a bid.

Big East
Bubble 3: West Virginia, Syracuse, Villanova

WVU: Cannot afford a first round exit. Win and they are in.
Syracuse: Elimination game against Nova. Winner still has a shot.
Villanova: Needs the Syracuse game more than the Orange. Probably has to beat Georgetown as well.

Big 10
Bubble 1: Ohio St

Ohio St: Beat MSU in the quarters and the Buckeyes should be dancing.

Big 12
Bubble 3: Baylor, Kansas St, Texas A&M

Baylor: One win and the Bears are dancing.
Kansas St: Probably in either way, but a win would solidify a bid.
Texas A&M: Needs 1 for sure; maybe 2.

Colonial
Bubble 1: VCU

VCU: Should get a bid, but tough loss to W&M in the tourney semis.

Conference USA
Bubble 1: UAB

UAB: Finals run will get the Blazers into the discussion.

Missouri Valley
Bubble 1: Illinois St

Illinois St: Should get a bid, but probably need some teams above them in the pecking order to lose.

Mountain West
Bubble 2: UNLV, New Mexico

UNLV: Reach the finals of the tournament.
New Mexico: See above.

Pac 10
Bubble 3: Arizona, Arizona St, Oregon

Arizona: Two wins would be good. 3 would be great.
Arizona St: Beat USC and the Sun Devils will be dancing.
Oregon: Two wins and it'll be tough to leave the Ducks out.

SEC
Bubble 4: Kentucky, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Florida

Kentucky: Might be in already; but winning one more will lock it up.
Ole Miss: Two wins might do it. Better get 3 just to be safe.
Arkansas: See Kentucky.
Florida: Finals or bust.

Sun Belt
Locks 0:
Bubble 2: South Alabama, Western Kentucky

South Alabama: Will get an at-large if USA doesn’t win the conference tourney.
WKU: Tournament finals at least. Most likely needs the auto-bid.

Last 4 in: Texas A&M, Syracuse, Ohio St, Illinois St