Fantasy Football Draft 2012: Why You Must Avoid Chris Johnson This Season

The greatest time of the year for the millions of us nonathletic football fans who still love and cherish the game is almost here: fantasy football. Many of us have our draft date circled on the calendar, and it is never too early to begin thinking about a draft strategy.

Being deep in the running back position is almost always the most important aspect of a successful fantasy football team. So here are a few reasons why you MUST avoid Chris Johnson in this year's draft.

His Statistical Decline

After Johnson ran for over 2,000 yards in the 2009-10 season, he immediately became the unanimous No. 1 draft pick all over the country for the next year. Especially when he said he was shooting to rush for 2,500 yards. After he didn't even come close to hitting the mark, many still had faith in him and just thought he had an off year.

But his numbers have declined quite substantially over the last two years. After rushing for 2,000+ yards three seasons ago, he rushed for 1,364 yards two years ago and 1,047 yards last season. I think it is a stretch to say that he isn't going to be able to surpass 1,000 yards this season if he continues to get starting reps, but he is far from the elite talent we thought he was going to be.

His touches have declined as well. He has averaged 289 carries (just over 18 per game) over the last two years, which is 69 carries less than the 358 he had during the 2009-10 season. Then there is the biggest statistic: touchdowns. Over the last two regular seasons, Chris Johnson has found the pay-dirt 16 times.

He had 16 touchdowns in the 2009-10 season alone.

Tennessee has Limited Options Through the Air

It is no surprise to NFL defenses that Chris Johnson is the biggest threat on the offensive side of the ball. And when you look at the fire power that the Titans have through the air, it's safe to say that most defenses will stack the box and trust their secondary.  

Kenny Britt was on pace for a great year until he got hurt, and only time will tell whether he is going to be right back to form or struggle with injuries throughout the rest of his career. Nate Washington is a solid No. 2 receiver, but defenses aren't going to have to make special adjustments in order to contain him.

Bottom line, Johnson is still the biggest threat on the offense, and defenses have found out how to contain him. That trend will continue this season.

5 RBs ESPN Ranked Below Johnson That You Should Draft Over Him

ESPN Fantasy Football RB Rankings.

- Ryan Mathews (This year will be his break-out year without Mike Tolbert stealing carries from him.)

- Matt Forte (He might lose a few carries to Michael Bush but was still a top-5 fantasy back last year, even with Marion Barber as his back up.)

- Darren McFadden (I'm surprised he isn't ranked in the top 10, as his risk/reward pushes in favor of drafting him early. He's one of the best dual RB threats out there. In a points-per-reception league especially, McFadden should be taken first.)

- Jamaal Charles (If he avoids injury, he could easily have over 2,000 total yards this season.)

- DeMarco Murray (He's one of the rising stars of the NFL.)