French Open Men's Final 2012: First-Serve Accuracy Key to Djoker's Title Hopes

Novak Djokovic's quest for tennis' first Grand Slam since 1969 will resume later this morning.

So far, Djoker trails Rafael Nadal two sets to one with a 2-1 lead in the final's fourth frame. The match has gone back and forth, but Djokovic seems to be getting more comfortable.

Things began to swing in his favor as soon as he figured his serve out. For the majority of the match, Djokovic's first-serve percentage was below 50 percent.

Let's talk about why this is the most crucial factor when considering Djokovic's comeback dreams.

Keep Rafa Off-Balance

Giving away your first serve is a bad strategy. Doing it against an elite player like Nadal is fatal.

Djoker's 2-1 lead in the match's fourth set is completely due to turning his first serve around. He has hit 22 of his last 26 services in play, and that has kept Nadal on his heels.

Nadal has spent most of the match playing off the baseline in the service game. This nullifies the chances of an ace, and forces Djokovic to come at him.

Instead of forcing Nadal to return clean shots, Djokovic spent the match's opening sets repeatedly knocking balls outside the lines. Setting Nadal up with soft second serves is an unfair advantage for a player of his caliber.

Djokovic has arguably the strongest groundstrokes in the game. The clay surface lends itself to Nadal's athleticism, but Djokovic has every ounce of talent Rafa has.

First-serve accuracy will make or break Djoker's chances of completing tennis' first Grand Slam since Rod Laver in 1969. If he continues improving, this match is going to go five sets.

But if he doesn't, Nadal will continue breaking his serve. Missed first serves will bury Djokovic before the match even resumes.

Prediction

I think Nadal will win this match, but not for lack of effort by Djokovic.

It is hard to tell how the suspension will impact each player, but it could help Djoker refocus. He has to make sure any issues surrounding his serve are solved. All kinks must be ironed out prior to returning to the court this morning.

Expect Djoker to continue his accurate serving and force Nadal to respect his opening shot. Rafa will take a few games to adjust, but he won't have any trouble in the long run.

If Djokovic really wants to win, he will find a way to draw Nadal forward, but I don't see that happening. Until then, focusing on his first serve will make things interesting enough.

History is on the line this morning. It's funny that one simple issue can have such an incredibly dramatic impact on the outcome.