Belmont Stakes 2012: Union Rags Won't Alter I'll Have Another's Chances to Win

Union Rags is a threat to I’ll Have Another, but nothing more.

I’ll Have Another is attempting to become the first horse since 1978 to win the Triple Crown, and will be doing so against a field that doesn’t exactly scream outstanding competition.

Trainer Doug O’Neill may be facing a 45-day suspension for previous tactics, but I’ll Have Another is clean and has been trained beautifully.

With the young, but ultra-talented Bodemeister sitting this leg out, the only real competition is Union Rags.

Union Rags finished a disappointing seventh in the Kentucky Derby after being one of the favorites, and decided to pass on the Preakness Stakes to rest. It was a head-scratching decision that didn’t make much sense at the time considering injuries were not a concern. He simply got jammed on the rail and was unable to recover.

Then trainer Michael Matz announced he would be making a jockey switch. Out went Julien Leparoux and in came John Velazquez. While Matz doesn’t come out and blame the jockeying of Velazquez for Union Rags' disappointing Derby, he certainly sounded like he wasn’t happy with his performance (via NY Daily News): “I just don’t think he had the chance to show his true ability in his last two races. He never had a chance to run in his last two.”

It’s an interesting wrinkle to consider with Union Rags. Is it the jockey’s fault? Can the new jockey mesh with Union Rags in such a short time?

This is history in the making, and the odds are not in I’ll Have Another’s favor. Since 1919, there have been 30 horses with the opportunity to finish off the Triple Crown and only 11 have been able to pull off the task.

It’s certainly going to take another outstanding effort from the hottest colt in the sport, but in a watered-down field with the main competition coming in cold, this is the best shot a horse has had to pull off the unthinkable in quite some time.

With a jockey in Mario Gutierrez that has been able to pull all of the right strings, this is I’ll Have Another’s race to lose.

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