UFC Fight Night 17 Preview

I really don't like this card for wagering. I have mulled this over and I honestly cannot see a dog winning.

LAUZON -174 VS. STEPHENS

Lauzon has more skills on the ground and is a pressure stand-up attacker who leads with his jab and forces flat feet for right crosses and eventually take downs. From the ground, he is well skilled and very effective, winning 75 percent of his fights via submission.

Stephens is a dangerous and powerful striker who is also very explosive. He has a mean fighting streak and loves to mix it up. He has displayed decent ground survival against some good ground fighters, but he mainly survived due to his striking and tenancy.

Bottom Line: Stephens took this on short notice and is a striker first. He was training/preparing lauzon's original opponent franca before he got injured. I doubt he is in shape for a ground fighter, and I think Lauzon's tactical approach should allow him to sweat out the early stand-up and get a takedown for a second-round submission.

MAC DANZIG -120 VS. JOSH NEER

Danzig: well rounded fighter with just as much experience as Neer. He has great submissions and technique and his stand is polished.

Danzig does struggle with strong wrestlers, but Neer's wrestling is a little aggressive and fluid. Danzig's guard may to able to frustrate Neer and maybe, and that's a stretch maybe catch a submission.

Danzig trains with Xtreme Couture and is ready, great partners and in great shape. This is a major difference when Couture is planning and cornering your fight.

Neer: fan favorite because he always brings it. He is well-rounded as well and is really tough. He does everything well and tends to break his opponents will with constant pressure.

Neer's stand up is slightly better and I think he will try to use this to his advantage. Neer is also the bigger and stronger of the two as well.

Bottom Line: danzig will be in Superior shape and better prepared. I think his patience and discipline will be the factors to a tough SD. Also, Neer has had a recent run in with the the police. He led them on a high-speed chase while drunk.

He has admitted to some serious personal problems and that his camp was a little distracted. I have to believe this may weigh in late into the rounds and be a negative factor against Neer.

G. TIBIA(-106) VS. R.CLEMENTI

Tibia: The biggest 155er in the UFC and maybe all of MMA. He is very skilled on the ground with great BJJ, but his inability to translate that to MMA is my biggest concern.

On his feet he is good, strong and accurate. he has decent defences and a strong top mount. biggest fault, lack of preparation and conditioning. he is easily broken.

Clementi: great veteran. Has all the skills to win any time anywhere. He improves every fight and has the rare ability to hang around and frustrate opponents. Mainly depends on his BJJ for submissions.

His BJJ is a perfect for MMA. Its a little more loose and slick, if Tibia every learned this he would be unstoppable. Rich has great ring presence as well, there is nothing that Tibia can do that Rich hasn't seen before.

Bottom line: looks like I would favour Rich, but i think its Tibia's time to shine. he loses tonight he gone. i have to believe his conditioning will be the best it has ever been and i have to believe he will be in top position most of the fight. rich can win this fight but size will be the difference.

C.VELASQUEZ -600 VS D.STOJNIC

no need to get into this one at that price. CV is a solid wrestler who is being babied and protected thus far. he is still a little green but has all the ground tools to contend one day. his hands are improving but most importantly he can take down anyone and he's tough. his opponent is huge. a very big stocky fighter, has decent ground skills and his stand-up is samba based. his movement is minimal and i think he gets put down at will. CV should win with ease, but you just never know.

K.PELLEGRINO -210 VS. R.EMERSON

KP: excellent, excellent mat fighter. he is the perfect combo of wrestler and bjj. he has tremendous credentials and will destroy Emerson on the mat. KP is also a very tough fighter who has never been KOed and has improved his hands. he has fought good competition and usually has the lead before mental and cardio mistakes take over, should be noted that the lost to Joe Stevenson was a result of a broken hand suffered in the 1st. he did manage to finish.

RE: good athlete with good hands. has a solid camp that focuses on stand-up. his biggest strength in my opinion is his take down defence,will and heart. much like rich clementi he is always in a fight, even when down u can never count him out. his ground skills are weak from and offence point but tend to be strong on the defence, and they will need to be against his biggest ground threat.

bottom line: KP needs to push the pace on his feet to generate take downs. from there RE is no threat. he needs to be in great shape and he a plan, luckily for us he has trained with Kenny Florian for cardio, Miguel Torres for a sparring partner and has hired some of they best boxing coaches in jersey. i like KP's chances here, just hope he doesn't get caught with a KO early.

A.JOHNSON -285 VS. L.FIORAVANTI

AJ: a highlight reel machine. i love this kid. talking about massive. he is huge and strong. he also happens to be crazy athletic. his hands are fast and furious and he has developed vicious kicks. there unstoppable. he is so big and lanky that fighters can't defend them. he is also a strong wrestler, some would say that's his foundation. who knows he is just a serious talent.

LF: journeyman striker and ufc veteran. LF is a serious threat on his feet. he hits hard and has technical boxing skills. in this fight that's all he brings. but at a serious reach disadvantage i think he needs to depend on experience and heart.

bottom line: AJ needs to impose his natural abilities and LF needs to just find a way to win. i don't like his chances but with his power it's possible. this is a potential dog threat from a wager line point of view, but i just like AJ to much.

M.RIDDLE -130 VS. S.BRUNO

MD: maybe some remember him from the TUF series. he is a very talented wrestler with no mma skills or experience. he walked in on pure mat pedigree and got no where. however he has a physical make-up that's perfect for mma and he is a fast learner. this fight is a toss up, MR is just a phenom but with only 1 mma fight and coming off injury he will have to lay and pray all night.

SB: once considered a serious talent, to make a long story short his career suffered a bit and he has made some great strides to come back. he has the skills to win but does he have the physical abilities to match MR. think back to ufc 94 jones vs. bonnar. jones won on pure raw talent and overwhelmed bonnar. i don't think bruno can do that to MR but he has the experience to find a way. patience will be key.

bottom line: MR screws up its over. MR is raw but he is so damn strong i really cannot see bruno doing anything but catching a mistake for a submission. these maybe the best potential dog if there is one tonight.

D.MILLER -186 VS. J.ROSHOLT

DM: great talent. does everything well and relies mainly on wrestling and submissions. has good hands that generates take downs and produces effective angle control for stand-up defence. miller has great ring control and is very savvy and experienced. has fought very tough competition.

JR: probably the biggest wrestling talent in UFC. check his background there sick. he is a top talent but is he an mma talent? has a good camp and is training hard however he is very green in many areas. i worry most about his stand-up defence. to be honest he is a punching bag, he can take a punch but he has no movement or understanding of position. in the top mount i question if he can be dangerous against ta savvy veteran like miller who has an aggressive and dangerous guard.

bottom line: miller should win but rosholt may be able to lay and pray a win here. his wrestling is that good. i have to think miller his more skills to win so its the logical pick.

N.CATONE -200 VS. D.DOWNEY

NC: an up and comer with some serious talent. his good hands with power. they are slowly becoming technical and accurate. he is able to set back and strike because his take down defence is strong and his wrestling is strong.

DD: very similar to NC. has all the same traits but i feel there all slightly less skilled. DD is experienced and tough. he may be able to frustrate the fight to a win if he able to block and grab a TD or 2. not sure if the short notice will be a factor or if the prime time debut be a great factor. he may just be under classed here.

bottomline: to exact fighters going toe to toe. i hve to assume the better version wins most times.

M. GRICE -145 VS. M. VEACH

MG: good fighter but not great. has rounded skills and has been around. his biggest advantage tonight will be experience. his biggest disadvantage may be the lack of fights over the last 2 years or so.

MV: good young talent, solid wrestling and solid training, he can easily win this fight on pure talent alone, willn't be surprised if he wins this fight, he will be in control from the opening bell but i think he gets caught.

bottom line: i think i talked myself into a dog play here, MG has some skills that match up well against MV but he lacks the size lets go with a young physical talent for the alone dog pick +136.

well boys that's may take, feel free to jump in. note: i'm not going to proof read this as i suck with grammar, so once again please forgive me!!