2012 MLB Draft Prediction: Lucas Giolito Will Be Worth the Risk

Few prospects in the 2012 MLB draft are surrounded by as much uncertainty as Lucas Giolito, but the right-handed pitcher will reward whichever team takes a chance on him.

Giolito came into the year as one of the top prospects in the draft. He has great size and throws his fastball up to 100 mph. Though his secondary offerings need work, not many people in the country can match his primary pitch.

Unfortunately, a sprained UCL in his elbow ended his high school season early. While this injury did not require surgery, he has not been able to throw off the mound for scouts. This alone scares front offices away from making the huge investment.

The good news is the high school pitcher has thrown on flat ground and according to Baseball Prospect Report, he was pain free. Hopefully, this will be enough for a team to have faith in his recovery and be patient.

Even without the injury concerns, Giolito might fall down draft boards due to an apparent lack of signability.

In the new collective bargaining agreement, teams will face punishments for going over slot to sign a player. This will force lower signing bonuses and it will cause high school prospects to pass on going professional in favor of college.

Giolito has committed to play baseball at UCLA along with high school teammate Max Fried. However, that promise starts to mean a lot less when a big league club offers millions of dollars.

Fried is also expected to go early in the draft, and it would not be out of the question for both to forgo their college careers.

Based on pure potential, Giolito is as good as any other prospect in the class. The further he slides down draft boards, the more value he provides.

Teams will have to risk the possibility of getting nothing, but in the end, the California native could be a No. 1 starter in only a few years. That potential should be enough to call his name out on draft day.