Dave's College Basketball Picks, Feb. 4: Minnesota-Michigan State

No. 19 Minnesota (18-3, 6-3) at No. 14 Michigan State (17-4, 7-2)

Line: Michigan State -9.5

Back in the top 25, Minnesota hits the road for four out of their next five games. With two home victories and five days off, the Gophers head to East Lansing in hopes of claiming a share of first place.

Minnesota thumped Illinois last Thursday in a game that saw the Illini shoot just 29.4 percent from the floor. Minnesota showed again that they are a good second half team, pulling away with their depth en route to a shocking 59-36 victory.

In their first meeting, the Spartans were paced by Kalin Lucas with 24 points in a 70-58 win at Williams Arena.

The Breslin Center has not been kind to Michigan State as of late. The Spartans have lost their last two games at home, including a 68-72 loss to Penn State on Sunday. We were on Penn State that game, as they are a better team than they are being given credit for, but an outright loss leaves Michigan State with just a one-game lead in the standings and a loss of momentum.

Penn State was able to sustain their lead thanks to 50 percent shooting from three-point range. Michigan State had just as many attempts from behind the arc as Penn State (20) but made only five compared to the Lions' 10. You have to go back to Dec. 3 to find a team other than Penn State to score 70 on the Spartans. 

ATS

Minnesota is 10-6 against the spread, including 4-2 on the road.

Michigan State is 9-9 against the spread, including 4-8 at home.

Michigan State is 6-4 against the spread in their last 10 matchups against Minnesota.

So we know MSU is beatable at home. We also know Minnesota has won three of its four road games this year in conference. Minnesota has momentum, and Michigan State is trying to regroup. Minnesota is rested. Minnesota has a winning record on the road against the spread, and Michigan State has a losing record at home against the spread.

Think you know where I’m going with this one.

Dave’s Pick: Minnesota +9.5

See all of Dave's Free college basketball picks against the spread.