Super Bowl XLIII: Which Team Will Be Super on Sunday?

So, when the final gun goes off, who will be World Champions?

Both teams certainly have keys to victory.  Let's take a quick look at what they are.

For the Steelers, offensively, they have to try to run the ball some to keep the Cardinal defense honest.  They also have to protect Ben Roethlisberger, especially allowing him to roll out and extend the play when he can be most dangerous. 

Defensively, they have to try to contain Larry Fitzgerald.  The best way may involve putting Kurt Warner under heavy pressure up the middle, as Warner is not as effective when the pressure comes at him from the middle as opposed to the ends.  But they must be wary of Arizona running screens to negate that pressure.

Arizona must keep Warner upright and not allow the Steelers zone blitz defense to destroy the timing of their offense.  Edgerrin James needs to contribute in some fashion for them to be effective offensively. 

On defense, they must contain Roethlisberger and not allow him to get outside the pocket where he can make plays on the move.  They have to continue their post season success in stopping the run, and not allow Willie Parker to make the big play as he did in the Steelers Super Bowl win over Seattle.

The Cardinal offense has been extremely effective against the 3-4 defense.  This, of course is the Steeler's base defense.  Arizona has been spreading teams out when they play this defense against them and making it impossible for them to defend the field against Fitzgerald, Boldin, Breaston, and the other weapons in the Cardinals offense.  But the zone blitz aspect of the Steeler defense may be the equalizer.

In Atlanta and Carolina, the Cardinal defense has shut down the second and third best running attacks in the NFL, respectively.  While Pittsburgh has been nowhere near as effective as those teams in running the ball, Roethlisberger is probably a better quarterback than either Jake Delhomme or Matt Ryan.  This could be where the Steelers are able to forge an advantage.

So, who wins the game?  It will probably be a very close game, closer than most people expect.  I've tried to analyze this game from every possible angle, and to be honest, have found it difficult to find any one clear advantage that makes me say one team is better than the other.

Based on a hunch, and very little else, to be honest, I'm going to pick the Steelers in a very close game, 24-20.  One piece of advice: Don't bet on this game based on my pick!  I don't claim to be great at picking games.