Super Bowl XLIII: Best Bets Series

It's amazing to think that after this weekend we'll put our NFL game picks to rest until the 2009 season kicks off. It was a very good first year for us, and after picking both games in the conference championships, we'll look to cap it off with a winner in the Super Bowl.

Best Bets

1. Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) vs. Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals magical post season run has seen them cover all three point spreads, all three being the underdog. So no one - including Vegas - has given them any respect. It'll be the same this weekend when they line up against the Steelers.

Unfortunately for Arizona, all good things come to an end, and so it will be with their streak of both winning, and covering the spread as the underdog.

The only way the Cardinals can win—or keep this game within seven points—is by passing the ball early and jumping to the lead. Their entire strategy/game plan is based on this scenario taking place.

The Steelers were the best in the NFL vs the pass allowing a league leading low 156 yards per game. So something's got to give here, and we're not going to bet that it's Pittsburgh's defense.

Look for the game to be close in the first half; both teams usually come out fired up and the Steelers offense isn't nearly as dominant as is its defense.

But in the second half, once the initial energy of playing in the Super Bowl has worn off, look for the Steelers defense, led by DE/LB Harrison and S Polamlu, to take over and pressure Warner into sacks and a few turnovers.

And on offense, look for Roethlisberger to lead long, methodical drives in the third and fourth quarters, which feature a  mixture of running and short passing  plays. The result of this will be twofold: Pittsburgh will be able to milk the clock and at the same time wear down the Cardinals defense en route to the 10-point victory.