Creature Vs. Creature: Federer Vs. Roddick, TOO Good

Roger Federer  

Roger Federer, absent from last year’s Australian Open final, will find himself in the hunt this year as he dispatches new-body Andy Roddick on his way to the final where Federer will face an on-fire Spaniard! 

Will Win If

Roger Federer will win this contest if he is serving well and seeing well.  His strength has always been his ability to anticipate and return the rockets Roddick launches in his direction.  This has to do with seeing the ball well.  Since Roddick’s serve is his only big weapon against Federer, the result will be determined in part by Roger’s ability to return the Roddick serve, turning defense into offense.

But Roger must also be serving well himself to ease the pressure of surviving the Roddick service game.  Although Andy’s overall court movement has improved with his increased fitness, he has not gained foot speed or agility.  Roger simply is a better all court player than Roddick. 

Will Lose If

Roger will lose this contest if he does not come out with intensity and purpose and does not take control from the outset.  He must establish early dominance and not let Roddick into the contest.  If Roger does not serve well, he puts undo pressure on himself.  He must create doubt in Roddick’s mind. 

Heat

No one playing in the men’s game is in better shape than Roger Federer.  Roger prides himself on his fitness and his ability to endure in heat and in five-set contests.

Intangibles

Roger Federer has the added incentive to win this tournament and by doing so match the record of Pete Sampras who holds 14 grand slam titles.  Winning the 2009 Australian Open would give Roger Federer his fourteenth title and would allow him the rest of 2009 to surpass Sampras and reach that new plateau of 15 grand slam titles. 

It would also allow him to advance in the rankings and give him some breathing space as he works his way back to number one.

This tournament is Roger Federer’s to win.  He just needs to bring his A-One game along the rest of the way.

For a frat-boy A-ROD perspective, check LJS piece here