Justin Blackmon Will Not Be Worth Top-10 Draft Pick

Oklahoma State receiver Justin Blackmon will be a Top-10 pick of the 2012 NFL draft, but he will not live up to this lofty projection.

Sports Illustrated's Peter King believes that Blackmon is one of six elite players in this draft, and the list of prospects drops off following his projected pick to the St. Louis Rams.

While the receiver is likely to be taken by the Rams, and no later than the Carolina Panthers at No. 9, he has been overrated throughout the entire draft process.

There is no denying Blackmon's production throughout his collegiate career.

In this last two seasons at Oklahoma State he totaled 232 receptions, 3,304 yards and 38 touchdowns. This helped him earn two Fred Biletnikoff Awards as the best receiver in the nation.

Unfortunately, these numbers will not translate into success at the professional level.

His college team played a pass-heavy spread offense, which allowed him to put up his great numbers. He was deadly on a slant because no defender was there to cover the middle of the field.

The Big 12 is also not known as a defensive conference, and Blackmon was able to use his strength to break tackles of weaker defenders.

It will not be as easy at the next level.

Receivers that have lived up to being a Top-10 draft selection are ones that have unique size and athleticism. Players like Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and A.J. Green can handle double teams with ease as they simply leap over the competition.

Blackmon does not have that ability, nor does he have the speed to burn cornerbacks down the field for big plays.

Instead, it is likely that he becomes a possession No. 2 receiver at the next level. He has the strength to make tough catches in traffic, but he will never be that home run threat to watch out for on every play. 

A player of this skill is usually found at the end of the first round or later, not in the first few selections.

Whichever team pulls the trigger will never get the value they hoped for with this pick.