Preview: No. 14 Texas (14-4, 3-1) at Baylor (15-4, 3-2)

Tuesday January, 27 2009 — 9:00 pm EST
#14 Texas (14-4, 3-1) at Baylor (15-4, 3-2)

Spread: Baylor -1.5

The Texas Longhorns, preseason Big 12 favorites, come into Waco, TX as underdogs to play the upstart Baylor Bears.

Backcourt Advantage: Even.
It’s not often anymore in college basketball where you can see a battle between teams with true senior leadership.  This game will provide us with this privilege as Texas senior guard A.J. Abrams (16.9 PPG) duels with Baylor senior guard Curtis Jerrells (17.6 PPG). 

The Bears will need their three's to drop early and often in this game if they expect to knock off the Longhorns.  Fellow guards LaceDarius Dunn (16.9 PPG), Henry Dugat (12.4 PPG), and Tweety Carter (10.6 PPG) will be launching them, so if the home rims are friendly, Baylor will have a real shot to win this game, something they have not been able to do since 1998 (a 22-game drought).

Frontcourt Advantage: Texas.
Longhorn senior F/C Connor Atchley has been struggling on offense this season (only 5.9 PPG after averaging 9.5 PPG last year).  His ability to stretch defenses has been compromised by a lackluster 31.8 percent shooting from 3PT, down almost 10 percent from last year, and he is only two-for-15 in his last six games. 

But like a true senior leader, he is still contributing on the defensive end with 1.8 BPG.  With junior swingman Damion Jones cleaning the glass (8.2 RPG), Texas should have a slight rebounding edge over Kevin Rogers and the Bears, which could create more second chance opportunities for the Longhorns and prove to be the difference in a close game.

Momentum: Texas.
Don’t let the point spread fool you, the Longhorns are the favorite here.  Winners of 22 in a row against Baylor, Texas will be a very intimidating presence for Baylor, and the Bears will have to get off to a fast start to give them the confidence they’ll need to end their streak of futility against the mighty Longhorns. 

This is a game Baylor wants to win more than any other on their schedule this year, and while they match up fairly well against the Longhorns, they will be relying heavily on their outside shooting.  If their three’s are falling, Texas will need a special effort from A.J. Abrams to avoid the upset.  I think Abrams will deliver that special performance.

Prediction: Texas +1.5