Robert Griffin III: Why RG3 Faces a Harder NFL Transition Than Andrew Luck

We don't know exactly how the first two picks of the NFL draft are going to play out, but we have a pretty good idea.

We know that the Indianapolis Colts will be picking first, and the Washington Redskins second. We know that either Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III will go No. 1, and the one who doesn't will go No. 2. It's just a question of who the Colts want.

According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, the Colts want Luck. That means RG3 is likely ticketed for Washington, just as all of us who make up the peanut gallery figured he would be when the Redskins traded up to land at No. 2.

It's at this point, with mere days left until the draft, that we can start seriously thinking about how Luck and RG3 are going to transition into the NFL. They've been scouted more than enough. Now is the time to project.

I've already offered my two cents on Luck. There's going to be a ton of pressure on him to be the man in Indianapolis when (okay, if) the Colts draft him, and I don't think he's going to disappoint. It's hard to imagine a draft prospect being more ready for the NFL than Luck.

As for RG3, I think he's in for a harder transition. His potential is through the roof, but he has a lot to learn before he can become a star.

I don't want to discredit RG3 by calling him a "system quarterback," but there's no denying that he's coming from an offensive system at Baylor that just isn't very common in the NFL. With the Bears, Griffin operated primarily out of the shotgun, running a spread offense that used a lot of four-receiver sets. He was obviously hugely successful running this offense, but in the NFL he's going to have to get used to being under center more often and working with simple two- or three-receiver sets, and sets with two backs instead of one.

The other thing we have to realize about RG3 is that he had the benefit of playing with receivers who could really go and get the ball. He made a habit out of chucking the ball deep to Kendall Wright and Terrance Williams, both of whom had more than enough speed to run past secondaries to go get the ball.

Speedy wide receivers do exist in the NFL, of course, but it's relatively uncommon to see them run in a straight line past the defense to go catch a perfectly thrown deep ball. It does happen, but not as often as it happened in Baylor games in which RG3 was under center.

It's a good thing RG3 showed an ability to hit receivers in stride on short routes. Otherwise, we're probably not even talking about him right now.

As far as physical tools are concerned, there's not a whole lot to complain about when it comes to RG3. He's got a strong and accurate arm, and we all know about his speed. A lot of people don't want to hear him being compared to Michael Vick, but I think that's fine as long as one notes that RG3 is a much better passer and a better pure football player than Vick was when he was coming out of college.

But whether you want to compare him to Vick or whoever, there's no denying that RG3 is going to have to go through the same tough learning curve that many rookie quarterbacks before him had to go through. His transition will not be easy.

Let's get one thing straight. Me saying RG3 is facing a tough transition is not me saying RG3 is going to be a bust. That's another argument entirely.

Cam Newton faced a tough NFL transition last year, and a lot of people didn't think he could handle it (a) because of the lockout and (b) because Newton was viewed as a simpleton after his appearance on Gruden's QB Camp on ESPN. Plus, Newton was also coming from a shotgun-heavy spread offense, not unlike RG3.

Newton ended up having the greatest rookie season in NFL history. Clearly, he was able to handle the tough transition.

Griffin will handle it too. He's got a great head on his shoulders, and he's certainly not lacking in confidence. I doubt he'll explode onto the scene like Newton did, but he'll be fine.