Sprint Cup Preview: Ragan, Burton, Harvick, Kurt Busch

You can throw Brad Keselowski's name into the Rookie of the Year mix in Sprint Cup: it was announced he was going to drive 10 races in James Finch's 09 Miccosukee Gaming Chevy, in addition to the seven races scheduled with Hendrick Motorsports. NASCAR only takes the best 17 races when choosing ROTY, so Keselowski will have to run well each time out. Sterling Marlin, Ken Schrader, and Mike Bliss will fill out a full schedule for the 09 team, although I am sure they are going to park the car most of the time. Bliss will continue full-time in Nationwide, where he should be right in the title hunt with Keselowski.

Joe Nemechek will join Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards by trying to run the full Cup and Nationwide slates, although Nemechek's task will be considerably tougher: he is doing it completely out of his own pocket. Nemechek's 87 team has always been a success in Nationwide, and don't be surprised if he is a contender, sponsor or not. He will pilot Toyotas in Cup competition, where NEMCO never really emerged as a threat in the mid-90s. You have to wonder if Nemechek is going to be a start and parker in one of these series. He could contend in Nationwide and attract sponsorship, or park in Nationwide to support a 30th place Cup team. We'll see what transpires.

Continuing on with the Sprint Cup Preview, we begin to look at my 12 Chase drivers today. And two of them were not in the Chase one year ago:

9. DAVID RAGAN

Age: 23
Hometown: Unadilla, GA
#6 UPS Ford
Crew Chief: Jimmy Fennig
Owner: Jack Roush/John Henry

David Ragan did not disappoint me in 2008 by living up to my proclamation that he would be the series' most improved driver. So I fully expect he and the 6 team to take the next step, find victory lane, and qualify for the Chase in the new season. The expectations have most definitely been elevated for Ragan in 2009, as one doesn't have to look any further than the fact that UPS decided to sponsor him over everyone else that was available.

Putting the weight of the world on the shoulders of a 23-year old could be the recipe for disaster, but if anyone can handle the added pressure, it would be the calm and collected Ragan. And if he starts to stray because of the added responsibility, he will have Jack Roush, his senior teammates, and crew chief Jimmy Fennig there for support. Fennig turned Kurt Busch into a champion and could have won one or two with Mark Martin. His veteran leadership and guidance of a man young enough to be his son has the chance to produce huge dividends in the new year.

10. JEFF BURTON

Age: 41
Hometown: South Boston, VA
#31 Caterpillar Chevy
Crew Chief: Scott Miller
Owner: Richard Childress

Jeff Burton is a great February to August racer, qualifying for the Chase easily the past three seasons. But when the final ten events have rolled around, he and his team have not asserted themselves as serious championship contenders. Burton realizes the clock is ticking on his chances to win a title, and even they appear to be a long shot considering the fact that the last time a driver over 40 won the title was Dale Jarrett a decade ago.

That being said, this is still a quality team that will qualify for the Chase and find victory lane at least once or twice. I am sure Caterpillar feels fortunate to be associated with a winning team for the first time since they sponsored Jeff's older brother. He will not disappoint. Jeff is certainly a sentimental favorite to win it all (along with a driver who I have yet to preview), but the entire RCR team has a tall mountain to climb in overcoming the Hendrick, Roush, and Gibbs powerhouses.

11. KEVIN HARVICK

Age: 33
Hometown: Bakersfield, CA
#29 Shell Pennzoil/Reese's Chevy
Crew Chief: Todd Berrier
Owner: Richard Childress

Harvick, once the immature brat, has set a modern-era record by finishing 80 races in a row, a sign that he has matured into a dependable driver who will not take any unnecessary risks to chance a good points day. But while Harvick is always around at the checkered flag, that has yet to produce any Sprint Cup championships, or even serious contention for one. Will that change in 2009? I don't think so, but look for Kevin Harvick to make another run at the Chase and find victory lane for the first time since the 2007 Daytona 500.

I think there are two big factors holding back Harvick, Burton, and RCR from taking that step from Chase participant to championship contender. One was alluded to by Burton this week, saying that the RCR teams need more speed and horsepower to compete with Roush/Hendrick/Gibbs and end their 15-year championship drought. The other has to be the lack of consistency. The 29 and 31 may have very few DNFs, but they will go weeks at a time without as much as a top 10. That can't happen if you want to win a championship.

12. KURT BUSCH

Age: 30
Hometown: Las Vegas, NV
#2 Miller Lite Dodge
Crew Chief: Pat Tryson
Owner: Roger Penske

It wouldn't be my annual season preview without a surprise pick to make the Chase. Frankly, Kurt Busch, the 2 team, and entire Penske organization are more capable than what they showed in 2008. You can blame Dodge all you want, but Roger Penske won't accept running a second-rate team, and if the Blue Deuce doesn't come out firing in 2009, I am sure some changes will be made to the team's structure.

Kurt Busch is still one of the best wheelmen in the garage, although he got shuffled out of the picture by his brother and own struggles a year ago. I think he, and his long-time crew chief Pat Tryson, have something to prove to the NASCAR world. This team won't bring home their first championship, but I look for a rebound in their performance this season. Look for them to be strong at the typical Busch favorites such as Pocono and Bristol, and sneak into the Chase. Also look for them to get back to victory lane, which they only reached in 2008 because of pure luck.