NBA Basketball Betting: Hottest Teams Against the Spread, January 23, 2009

Below is a list of NBA basketball’s hottest teams to bet on against the spread (updated January 23rd 2009) according to Alex Smart, a professional basketball handicapper featured on Touthouse.com.

If you are betting on the NBA this season be sure to check out Alex Smart’s NBA betting analysis each day at Touthouse.com.

1) Miami Heat (22-18) (21-19 O/U) (4-1 O/U L/5 +$290)

Miami just wrapped up a decent seven-game road trip that saw them rediscover its offense. They averaged a shade under 102 PPG on the trip, which is five points better than their seasonal average of 96.7 PPG.

The ‘over’ went a money-making 6-1 ATS over the course of the seven game stretch, and ‘total’ bettors backing it went 7-3 ATS in Miami’s last 10 games played. They outscored each of their last five opponents by a combined average score of 99-98, with oddsmakers releasing an average point total of 194.5 during that stretch.

Having said that, each of their next three games are against opponents (Boston, Orlando, Atlanta) whose defenses rank amongst the top 12 in the league. Look for the Heat’s offensive output to fall back to the norm over the coming week.

2) Golden State Warriors (13-29) (25-17 O/U) (4-1 O/U L/5 +$290)

The Warriors have been a golden goose for ‘over’ bettors throughout the last three seasons of NBA action, and they’ve continued to make money for ‘total’ players looking for high-scoring games by posting a 25-17 over-under mark to date. The Warriors played to the ‘over’ in four of their last five overall contests, with the lone ‘under’ coming in against Washington—who just so happen to be one of the premiere ‘under’ teams in the league.

Making matters worse for NBA oddsmakers is the possibility of Monta Ellis returning to the Warriors line-up after missing every one of their games this season. With the Warriors scoring at least 100 points in each of their last 11 games, where are they to start lining their totals with Ellis’ 20-plus PPG average getting thrown into the mix?

With Cleveland the only solid defense they’ll face to close out the week, keep hitting the ‘over’ in Warriors games until the oddsmakers catch up!

3) Toronto Raptors (16-27) (25-18 O/U) (4-1 O/U L/5 +$290)

The Raptors have been highly disappointing to date for point-spread players, but that hasn’t been the case in the ‘totals’ department where they’ve posted a healthy 25-18 mark to the ‘over.’   Their four-game ‘over’ streak was snapped their last time out against Atlanta, but they played that one without Jermaine O’Neal who might have had a big game due to some Hawks injuries.

The offense might average just 97.5 PPG, but they’re very efficient from the field connecting on just under 46 percent from the field and a shade under 38 percent from beyond the arc—both marks currently rank ninth in the NBA.

They’re below average defensively, so it makes sense to see an efficient team on the offensive end of the court that struggles defensively post a solid return in the ‘over’ department. Their January 21 game against Detroit could be a tough one to watch, but look for points to come in bunches in their next two games against Chicago and Sacramento.

4) Utah Jazz (25-17) (22-19 O/U) (4-1 O/U L/5 +$290)

The Jazz have played to the ‘over’ in eight of their last 10 overall, and it cashed in four of their last five games played. One of the league’s best ‘over’ bets from a year ago continues to do so by boasting the league’s eighth-ranked offense, averaging 102 points per game, and the 15th-ranked defense, allowing a shade under 99 PPG.

Third-year power forward Paul Millsap has really been getting the job done of late, and should form a dominant duo with Carlos Boozer once he returns from his leg injury. Look for points to continue to get posted on the board at a rampant pace with games against Houston, Cleveland, and Denver scheduled to close out the week.