Breaking Down the UFC 146 Main Event Debacle

There has been much speculation as to who would replace Alistair Overeem in the main event at UFC 146 if he is denied a license to fight after testing positive for a severely elevated testosterone level.  

Some of it has been logical. Some of it fantastical. Some of it downright wacky.

The first and most logical choice was Frank Mir. Mir has won three straight and broke Nogueira’s arm his last time out. That in itself puts him at the front of the line. However, Dana White quickly put the kibosh on that idea. Although file Mir away in your “Maybe” folder. Short on options, Dana has been known to change his mind.  

Cain Velasquez is simply not a viable option. He was knocked out in just over a minute at the UFC’s inaugural Fox show. An immediate rematch is a very tough sell.  

The UFC doesn’t want to break up the Mir/Velasquez fight because that will decide the next title challenger. The UFC plays chess, not checkers. But still, if any fight gets broken up to compensate for Overeem’s treachery this will be the one.

Some wild theories even arose that they might try to sign Fedor to fight Dos Santos. Assuming Dana White would even entertain that possibility, which he has no interest in, Fedor doesn’t deserve an immediate title shot. He dropped three straight in Strikeforce before departing to Mother Russia to beat up on overmatched opponents.

Mark Hunt’s name was even mentioned. I’ll just say that I’m thrilled Mark has had a career resurrection. He’s an exciting, very good fighter, and an affable fellow. But let’s keep our eye on the ball, people. This is a title fight; if at all possible it needs to mean something.  

Fabricio Werdum was brought up as well. And he did look great in his win over Roy Nelson. But let’s be honest, a Top 5 heavyweight beating up on Roy Nelson is nothing new. Werdum can be filed in the “Umm Possibly as a Last Resort” folder. 

Dan Henderson’s name even popped up. Hendo tweeted that he would take the fight, and we all know he would. The guy is a straight-up rogue, one of the toughest fighters the sport has ever seen. But he’s not fighting for the heavyweight title. Dan is a middleweight who fights at 205 because he dislikes cutting weight and he’s bad enough to thrive against the light-heavies.

I even read one comment that suggested Tim Sylvia. The amount of “fail” in that proposition cannot even be conceived by rational human beings.

Those are the names being dropped right now. But who else is there? The answer is simple: No one.  

The UFC, by opting to not announce a new opponent, is likely playing a waiting game to see if Overeem’s desperation plea to the Nevada State Athletic Commission seeking a testosterone replacement therapy exemption actually works. If it does, which would be a miracle, then the fight is on. If it doesn’t they’ll either make a move, or scrap the fight altogether.

My bet is that if Overeem is denied a license to fight by the NSAC, which seems pretty likely at this point, then Frank Mir will be promoted to the title shot. Cain Velasquez will be sent home with a very heartfelt “I’m Sorry,” and his show purse.

Evan Dunham vs Edson Barbosa will be promoted to kick off the main card, which is where that fight should have been from the start.  

Sure, it would ruin the UFC’s “All Heavyweight” main card format, but such are the breaks in this cumbersome life.